3 Early Super Bowl 55 Value Bets and 3 Teams to Avoid

• The Chicago Bears might be a good bet if they find an alternate solution at quarterback besides Mitchell Trubisky
• The Los Angeles Chargers are priced at +1600 but it’s unclear who their starting quarterback will be next season
• The Minnesota Vikings are a team to avoid as they have the least amount of cap space entering the offseason

Now that the 2019 NFL season is in the rear-view mirror, attention shifts to the early Super Bowl 55 odds. Which teams are offering some value and which teams are best to avoid? Here’s three in each category.

Value Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are on the board at +2200 and they look like a team offering some value. Prior to last season, they had been loaded on offense and simply needed the defense to keep up. Now the defense is elite and, if the offense can return to competent, the Steelers should again register double-digit wins and contend.

Keep in mind how banged up the Steelers were on offense last year. Ben Roethlisberger played just two games, James Conner played 10, Juju Smith-Schuster only suited up for 12.

If that trio stays healthy and the Steelers add a receiving weapon, this team has a good chance to vault back into the 10 or 12-win range and compete for the top spot in the AFC.

Chicago Bears

The Bears were a 12-4 team before falling back to 8-8 last year. While some regression was expected, I don’t think this team has fallen completely off the map.

The key to the Bears is the quarterback position. If they’re planning to enter the year with Mitchell Trubisky under center, then I have no interest in their futures. However, there are a slew of decent quarterback options out there like Philip Rivers, Cam Newton (possibly), Jameis Winston (possibly), Marcus Mariota, and Teddy Bridgewater.

The Bears might only be one or two pieces away and the quarterback spot is one hole they need to fill. If they upgrade there, the trajectory of the team can change completely. I’d wait to see who they sign and, if it’s someone serviceable, consider betting them.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay might seem like a long shot at 50-1 but they’re a team that’s on the rise. They finished the year with wins in five of their last eight games and were very competitive in their last two losses. Keep in mind they finished 7-9 while their quarterback threw 30 interceptions, including sveen pick-sixes.

The rumor is that the Bucs will go after Philip Rivers to replace Jameis Winston. Rivers is a bit turnover prone, himself, but is a steep upgrade in experience over Winston.

Also, head coach Bruce Arians has helped veteran quarterbacks excel in the past (see: Carson Palmer). If this team cuts down on the turnovers, they can get to the playoffs and be a challenger.

Also, keep in mind that the Bucs have the fourth-most cap space to work with ($84.9 million), so they can add a lot to their team.

Teams To Avoid

Los Angeles Chargers

It’s a bit bizarre to see the Chargers at +1600 considering we don’t know who their starting quarterback will be next season. It really feels like this price accounts for them already having Tom Brady on the roster. But that’s still a longshot.

The team has made it clear they’re moving on from Rivers, so if they don’t get Brady, this team is likely heading for either a rebuild or a stop-gap. In either case, that doesn’t make them a viable Super Bowl contender. I’d avoid their Super Bowl futures until we know Brady’s situation.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons turned their season around late after starting 1-7 and finishing on a 6-2 run. Even so, I’m not that excited about their 2020 prospects. They’ve done kind of the same thing three years in a row now as they started 3-3 in 2017 but finished 7-3 and were 4-9 in 2018 before winning their last three games.

Every time head coach Dan Quinn is on the precipice of getting fired, the team does just enough for him to hang onto his job.

The Falcons need lots of help in many areas but they enter the offseason with just $6.1 million in cap space. They’ll be hard-pressed to improve in 2020.

Minnesota Vikings

I think a lot of people will see the Vikings at +3000 and think about the fact that they were a 10-win team that wasn’t far off from a championship. They were also a 13-win team in 2017 and an 11-win team in 2015. Overall, I just think that’s just who they are: a good-but-not-great outfit.

The challenge is that, at some point in the season, quarterback Kirk Cousins is going to have to beat multiple elite teams and I don’t trust that he can do that. They have a solid running game, a good defense, but Cousins is barely passable against elite teams.

Also, keep in mind that this team has the least cap space to work with as they enter the offseason $12.3 million over the cap. It will be difficult for them to improve.