Ezekiel Elliott the Heavy Favorite to Rush for Most Yards in Wild Card Weekend
- Is Zeke Elliott the only bet to lead in rush yards this weekend?
- Is there a sleeper that presents excellent value?
- Strong run defense a staple among Wild Card weekend teams
In terms of pure talent and overall ability (and statistics too), Ezekiel Elliott is the top running back that will be lacing them up this Wild Card Weekend.
Should that make the Cowboys star the overwhelming favorite to be the top rusher across the four games?
Vegas seems to think so, in an overwhelming way. While it appears to be the bet, will it be the winning one?
It’s time to break this down.
Odds to Rush for Most Yards in Wild Card Weekend
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) | +180 |
| Jordan Howard (Bears) | +450 |
| Lamar Miller (Texans) | +525 |
| Melvin Gordon (Chargers) | +700 |
| Lamar Jackson (Ravens) | +750 |
| Chris Carson (Seahawks) | +800 |
| Marlon Mack (Colts) | +900 |
| Gus Edwards (Ravens) | +1000 |
| Josh Adams (Eagles) | +1600 |
Odds taken Jan 2.
Elliott The Main Cog in Cowboys Offense
It’s the second time in his three NFL seasons that Zeke has led the league in rushing.
He finished the year with 1,434 yards and six TDs in 15 games this season – the only running back to eclipse the 1,400 yard mark this year.
Most 100-yard rushing games this season:
Ezekiel Elliott: 7
Todd Gurley: 6
Saquon Barkley: 6
James Conner: 5
Chris Carson: 5Most 100-yard rushing games since 2016:
Ezekiel Elliott: 19
Jordan Howard: 13
Todd Gurley: 12
LeSean McCoy: 12— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) December 26, 2018
While the addition of Amari Cooper gave the passing game an electric shot in the arm, what it really did was open up the box, allowing Elliott to do his thing without having to face eight or nine defenders around the line of scrimmage.
ZEKE THERE IT IS! @EzekielElliott | #DALvsATL pic.twitter.com/MJGp2mZfhH
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) November 18, 2018
His play this season has been spectacular and consistent.
He’s gone a maximum of two straight games this season without rushing for over 100 yards, and that’s happened just three times this season. After sitting out Week 17 with the playoffs clinched, he’s now at two games without cracking that century mark.
He’s also going against the lowest ranked rush defense of the eight teams playing this weekend in Seattle.
Seeking the Best Value Pick
It’s hard to find a player that could break out of the pack and run wild among the four games, because run defense is a strong suit of almost every team.
In total, seven of the eight teams playing ranked in the top 10 in rush yards allowed (the Seahawks are 13th).
The way DeShaun Watson’s season ended last year I’m surprised he would even attempt this run on Jaylon Smith and the Dallas Cowboys defense! pic.twitter.com/HxfesaGQZH
— MICHAEL LARK (@themichaellark) October 8, 2018
Of those teams, the Bears led the way, allowing a paltry 80 yards a contest. Along with Chicago, five teams held their opponents to under 100 yards rushing per game all year: Houston (3rd), Baltimore (4th), Dallas (5th), and Philadelphia (7th).
Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson and their synergy in the #Ravens run game.
Video refers to Gus Edwards as Gus Johnson. When I'm tired I start thinking of former NBA players. pic.twitter.com/71FRTxJVuH
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 26, 2018
There are two picks that could be enticing and offer some bigger payouts.
While the LA Chargers have allowed just one player to break 100 yards on them this season, they have allowed over 100 yards rushing as a team nine times.
While it has mostly been by committee, a team that continues to chip away at the rock, like their opponent Baltimore, could eventually break the dam.
Don’t give Lamar Jackson room to run ?
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/WS3rMBgja5
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 14, 2018
In their last meeting, a 22-10 Ravens win, Gus Edwards (+1000) ran for 92 yards.
On this day in 2013, #49ers QB Colin Kaepernick @Kaepernick7 runs for playoff record 181 yards in dominating divisional round win over #Packers 45-31.
Highlights: https://t.co/spIHppLvXx#Random49ers pic.twitter.com/BGzLo3yXoU
— #Random49ers (@Random49ers) January 12, 2018
Don’t like his odds? Lamar Jackson (+750) has the physical ability to go full Kaepernick vs Packers too.
Chris Carson isn't human. pic.twitter.com/oUVY9svlZw
— C.J. (@c_tumbarello) November 25, 2018
As well, Chris Carson is actually the hottest back in the league heading into the playoffs. He’s rattled off three straight 100+ yard games. The Hawks are second behind the Ravens in rush yards per game this year at over 152 a contest.
Who’s the Best Bet?
It should be Elliott, but this has been a wacky season.
Last year, Derrick Henry – then a backup to injured DeMarco Murray – was the top rusher with (at the time) a career-high 156 yards in an upset of KC. Nobody would have expected that.
This is why putting a little cheddar on one of the Baltimore guys wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
