Houston Texans’ Super Bowl Odds Slashed Amid Hot Streak

• The Texans’ Super Bowl odds have moved from +7800 to +2900 in just four weeks.
• Houston was last in the AFC South on September 23rd; now they’re in first.
• The Jaguars’ Super Bowl odds plummeted to +4500 after their latest defeat.

According to sportsbooks, the Houston Texans have gone from Super Bowl pretender to contender in just four weeks.  The Texans, who have reeled off four straight victories, sit alone atop the AFC South and have seen their Super Bowl odds pop inside the top 10.

Take a look at the “Top 10 Contenders” tab in the graph below to see how much the Texans’ odds have fluctuated since the start of the NFL season.

Houston is Doing it with Defense

The biggest reason for the Texans’ recent success has been the dominant play of their defense.  Fueled by a devastating pass rush, Houston has allowed just 36 points over the last three weeks.

The Texans defense saw some big performances off the edge in their win over the Jaguars. pic.twitter.com/SejdvHsDiV

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 22, 2018

They’ve forced 10 turnovers and recorded 12 sacks during their four-game winning streak, and have moved inside the top 10 in takeaways, sacks and yards allowed per game.

#Texans defense on ???.#HOUvsJAX pic.twitter.com/A1uKpKdArm

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 21, 2018

That stellar play has compelled books to shorten Houston’s Super Bowl 53 odds each of the last four weeks.  On September 25th, they were +7800 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and now, less than a month later, that number has shrunk to +2900. Only six teams currently have shorter odds.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 53

Don’t Run to the Window Just Yet

Despite the drastic line movement, it seems unlikely that the Texans will be last team standing in February.  They’ve yet to beat a team with a winning record and star quarterback Deshaun Watson is dealing with a variety of injuries that forced him to ride a bus to Jacksonville instead of the team plane.

They would also likely have to beat both the Patriots and the Chiefs on the road along the way, two teams who are roughly +200 to win the AFC.

Something is Rotten in the City of Jacksonville

Sticking in the AFC South, the Jaguars have seen their Super Bowl odds plummet to +4500 in large part due to the sloppy play of quarterback Blake Bortles.

But it’s not just the offense that is sputtering.  Jacksonville’s “elite” defense has forced the second-fewest turnovers in the NFL and has allowed 90 points during a three-game losing streak.

#Jaguars clearly boiling over with frustration. Yannick Ngakoue was verbally upset in the locker room and was being held back by Calais Campbell. @wjxt4 @Sports4Jax

— Brian Jackson (@WJXTBJackson) October 21, 2018

This team is dysfunctional on both sides of the ball, and their odds would need to be much longer in order to warrant a play.

Leading the Charge

While all of Los Angeles is drooling over the Rams, they better start paying attention to the Chargers, as well.  Fresh off another victory, the Chargers saw only a small bump to their Super Bowl odds and, at +1500, are worthy of consideration.

Philip Rivers has a 13.3% improvement in completion% when the #Chargers utilize play-action vs when they don’t. That mark is tied for highest in the #NFL.

Run game is affecting the whole offense in a positive way ? pic.twitter.com/m7gwMiTOvG

— PFF LA Chargers (@PFF_Chargers) October 23, 2018

They boast a top-five offense and are one of the only teams in the AFC that can match the firepower of the Patriots and Chiefs. They’ve also managed to go 5-2 without star edge rusher Joey Bosa, who is slated to return from a foot injury after the team’s Week 8 bye.