Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers – Picks, Odds and Betting Lines for NFL Week 3
- Los Angeles is a 3-point home favorite in the Jaguars vs Chargers odds on Sunday, September 25th at 4:05pm ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA
- Justin Herbert missed practice on Friday and is questionable to suit up for LA
- Read below for the complete Jaguars vs Chargers odds, plus analysis and a betting prediction
Very few quarterbacks are good to enough to swing a point spread by six points. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are among those who are, as is Justin Herbert.
Herbert is still dealing with the fractured rib cartilage he suffered against the Chiefs in Week 2, and is trending in the wrong direction ahead of Sunday’s tilt with the Jaguars.
He was limited in practice all week leading up to Friday, where he didn’t practice at all. Backup Chase Daniel took all the first-team reps on Friday, and oddsmakers are expecting him to get the nod under center on Sunday.
Jaguars vs Chargers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +3 (-109) | +148 | O 42.5 (-112) |
| LA Chargers | -3 (-112) | -180 | U 42.5 (-109) |
Odds as of September 23 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook Promo code.
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Under the assumption that Herbert was healthy enough to play, Los Angeles opened up as 9-point favorites over Jacksonville. The line started cratering on Friday once whispers of Herbert’s status popped up, finally settling on the Chargers favored by 3.
The #Chargers will list QB Justin Herbert (ribs) as questionable for Sunday’s game vs. the #Jaguars. Chase Daniel took first-team reps on Friday.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 23, 2022
Public money is starting to back LA as a mere field goal favorite, but big money bettors are going the other way. Only 36% of the against the spread tickets are on the Jaguars as of Friday night, but those wagers make up 60% of the ATS handle.
Kickoff for this AFC tilt is scheduled for 4:05 pm ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, with sunshine and 84 degree temperatures in the forecast. CBS will have the broadcast nationwide, with Greg Gumbel on the call, and Adam Archuleta doing color commentary.
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Analysis
For now, the Chargers are saying that Herbert is hoping to give it a go against the Jags. If that were true, than this point spread would be a major mistake. Let’s face it, sportsbooks aren’t in the business of making mistakes.
It’s more likely that Daniel will make his sixth career start. The wiley veteran has made a lavish living as a backup, earning $39 million over his first 12 seasons. Now in his 13th year, he’s scheduled to make $2 million with the Chargers. That’s an awful lot of money for someone with 261 career pass attempts on their resume.
Chase Daniel will start if Justin Herbert can’t go, Brandon Staley said.
— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) September 23, 2022
Daniel is a low ceiling, low floor option. He’s going to complete a lot of passes, but he won’t push the ball downfield. He has a career 6.5 yards per attempt, and has thrown nearly as many interceptions (7) as touchdowns (8). The 35-year-old is 2-3 as a starter and hasn’t started a game since 2019 with the Bears.
To make things worse for the Chargers, a handful of key offensive contributors outside of Herbert are also injured. Number one receiver Keenan Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury that forced him to miss Week 2. Starting right tackle Trey Pipkins III is also questionable, while starting center Corey Linsley is doubtful.
Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis
A backup QB and offensive line issues spell trouble against this Jacksonville defense. The Jags enter play ranked third per DVOA on that side of the ball, while ranking top-eight in sacks, quarterback knockdowns and blitz percentage.
.@Jaguars defensive line are like a pack of hungry wolves. They didn’t just beat the @colts ; they whipped the Colts. Building something special in #Duval #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/1k7GqJYhry
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) September 19, 2022
They’re fresh off shutting out the Colts at home, limiting Jonathan Taylor to 54 rushing yards and Indianapolis to 4.5 yards per play.
Offensively, they’ve found something with the Trevor Lawrence to Christian Kirk connection. The duo have hooked up for 12 completions, 195 yards and two scores so far, while Lawerence sports the fifth highest quarterback rating in football.
Christian Kirk this season:
🐆 12 catches (10th)
🐆 195 yards (4th)
🐆 2 TDs (6th)
🐆 80.0 receiving grade (7th)
🐆 2.79 yards per route run (7th)
🐆 85 YAC (7th)Worth the money? pic.twitter.com/aQXxyhgWnf
— PFF JAX Jaguars (@PFF_Jaguars) September 19, 2022
Last year this team was a disaster under Urban Meyer, but so far new head coach Doug Peterson seems to have turned the program around. The advanced metrics certainly love this team early on, as only the juggernaut Bills rank higher per overall DVOA.
Jaguars vs Chargers Pick
This was likely a game Chargers fans had circled as an easy victory prior to the season. Now, they’ll be lucky to escape with a win let alone a cover. Daniel is a major downgrade from Herbert in every possible way, and the injuries at receiver and on the offensive line are going to make his life a lot more difficult.
The big money is on the Jags and I don’t see a reason not to follow suit. They’re an analytics darling and are entering this game in near-perfect health. Grab the field goal while you still can.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-109), 1 unit
2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 1-0, +0.92 units
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
