Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 3

• Our NFL experts predict their top picks against the spread for NFL Week 3
• Jimmy G and the 49ers are getting lots of love from our experts this week
• Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 3 below

There have been a lot of surprising results through two weeks of the NFL season. However, our expert NFL picks against the spread have churned out a 14-9 record heading into Week 3. See the top NFL ATS picks for this weekend here.

Each week we’ll pick our top picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s top NFL ATS picks.

Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 3

Odds as of September 23. Check out this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

This week’s expert NFL picks against the spread sees our SBD experts heavily favoring the 49ers over the Broncos with three selections going the way of San Fran as 1.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, two selections have landed on the Packers going into Tampa Bay as short road dogs.

Ryan Metivier

• Chiefs (-5.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

This line is moving against me as the Chiefs were 6.5-point favorites earlier in the week and the line is moving in Indy’s favor. But it does mean I’m getting a shorter line now for this ATS pick. It is the home opener for Colts and surely they’ll bring a better effort than they did in each of the past two weeks. However, the bar is low. Really low. And a “better effort” may not be enough against the 2-0 Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes who ranks sixth in passing yards per game. Mahomes has seven passing touchdowns and KC have won 44-21 and 27-24.

The Colts will likely need to score into the 20s to stand any chance here and I’m not sure they can. They just got shut out 24-0 in Jacksonville last week. In Week 1 they tied 20-20 in Houston and were losing 20-3 entering the fourth quarter. WR Michael Pittman Jr is back at Colts’ practice after missing last week but is still questionable. If he is limited or misses out that will once again severely limit Matt Ryan’s passing options to try and go head-to-head with Mahomes.

Chiefs vs. Colts is always a showdown 🐎 pic.twitter.com/OD9aonCWw4

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 23, 2022

• Packers (+1.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s often said, “You don’t make money betting against Tom Brady.” And that would still hold true this season as the Buccaneers are 2-0 and sitting tops in the NFC South. But man, those wins have not looked that great. Dallas did nothing all game and scored just three points, leading to a 19-3 Bucs win. Then Tampa entered the fourth quarter tied 3-3 with New Orleans last week before a fourth quarter explosion lead to a 20-10 win. Their defense has been elite ranking fifth in yards allowed per game (YPG) and first in points allowed per game. But offensively they rank just 24th in YPG.

Things won’t get any easier for Tom Brady. Receiver Mike Evans is suspended. Receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones, as well as RT Donovan Smith are all questionable. On the defensive side, edge rusher Akiem Hicks is also listed as questionable.

All this is is to say it’s hard to see the Bucs creating much separation between themselves and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers who are coming off a convincing 27-10 win over Chicago on Sunday Night Football. The Packers looked much improved in Week 2 when they got RB Aaron Jones more involved in the game plan, seeing Jones finish with 170 total yards. I’ll give the edge to the Pack in Week 3.

• 49ers (-1.5) at BetMGM

I don’t love the idea of backing a road team going to their “backup” quarterback in prime-time on SNF. However, when is a backup not a backup? He’s not the backup when he probably should have been the starter all along. For some reason, the 49ers seemed hellbent on shipping out Jimmy Garoppolo in the offseason to pave the way for Trey Lance who had completed just 41 passes in his short NFL career.

Meanwhile, perhaps Jimmy G hasn’t got San Fran to the promised land, but he does have a 33-14 record as a starter (31-14 with San Fran). The 49ers couldn’t find a place to ship Jimmy G to in the offseason and it’s for the best. The Trey Lance experience lasted just over one game, as the second-year QB suffered a broken ankle last week. Garoppolo thew a TD pass on his first drive after replacing Lance, ran in another score and the 49ers beat the Seahawks 27-7.

The 49ers are 8-29 under Kyle Shanahan when Jimmy Garoppolo isn't the starting QB pic.twitter.com/9OrGkiC4PI

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 11, 2022

While San Fran is going back to what’s familiar, the Broncos are struggling with change. New head coach Nathaniel Hackett looks like one of the worst head coaching hires in NFL history and could be one of the first coaches fired. New QB Russell Wilson is also just 43/73 with two touchdowns in his first two games in Denver.

Zach Reger

• Bengals (-6) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After an 0-2 start, Joe Burrow has officially deleted Twitter and Instagram. He will be ready for this game, and the Bengals will not overlook the Jets. New York is fresh off of a crazy win against Cleveland, and the Jets actually beat the Bengals 34-31 last season. This seems like a letdown spot for the Jets after that emotional, comeback win, and it is a get-right spot for the Bengals. This will be the week they wake up from their Super Bowl hangover.

Both the public and the sharps seem to be on Cincinnati as the line has moved from -5 to -6 in NFL public betting trends. The Jets’ defense has given up 27 points a game, and Burrow and his weapons should have a field day against the New York secondary. The Bengals have had some issues on the offensive line, but the Jets should not cause as many issues as TJ Watt and Micah Parsons caused them. Cincinnati is the more talented team and the hungrier team, so laying the points on the road is the play in this one. You may also want to target some NFL player props for the Bengals this week as well.

• Packers (+1.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Packers have not had a lot of success traveling down to Florida, but this time should be different. Tampa Bay’s offense has not been there this season. They struggled against both the Cowboys and the Saints this season.  Now they will be without multiple top weapons. Mike Evans is suspended, Chris Godwin has not practiced, and Julio Jones is questionable, however, it does not seem likely he plays.

“He'd throw for 7,000 yards every year. He's so much more talented than me.”

— Tom Brady on if Aaron Rodgers was on the Patriots pic.twitter.com/lRjO7NajZf

— IKE Packers Podcast (@IKE_Packers) September 21, 2022

Green Bay on the other hand has some momentum heading into Week 3. After a rough Week 1, the Packers bounced back to defeat the Bears. Green Bay struggling in Week 1 was nothing new for the organization, so that should not scare anyone off. The Packers have improved their defense over the last few years, and they boast the best offense that Tampa Bay has seen, so they have the edge in this one.

• 49ers (-1.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim your FanDuel Sportbook promo code for this weekend here

It’s not very often that your starting quarterback gets hurt and your Super Bowl odds actually improve. That is what happened with San Fransisco last Sunday. Jimmy Garropolo entered the contest early in the game and provided a jolt to the 49ers’ offense. Kyle Shanahan has gone 40-43 in his career as a head coach. Before last Sunday, he was 31-14 when Garappolo starts the game for San Fransisco.

Going against a home underdog is not very comfortable, but with Nathaniel Hackett as the Denver Head Coach, I am okay with it. After making many questionable decisions (to put it nicely) through the first two weeks, Hackett has turned himself into a laughing stock. After all eyes were on him in Week 1, he has another prime-time game where all eyes will be on him again. I expect the indecisiveness of their head coach to continue, while the 49ers have shown that they can win with Jimmy G under center.

Bob Duff

• Lions (+6) at DraftKings Sportsbook

You have to wonder what the Lions must do in order to get the oddsmakers to believe in them? They’re 2-0 ATS this season, 5-1 ATS in the past six games and 13-6 ATS under head coach Dan Campbell. Since opening, the line has shortened from Vikings -7.5 to Minnesota -6. Regardless, Detroit remains the play here as they were for us earlier this week as well in the early lines to target. The Lions’ offense will keep them in games. They’ve scored 35 points in successive weeks. Detroit probably doesn’t win this game, but they also won’t be losing by that much.

Best teams against the spread this season:

Bills 2-0 ATS
Lions 2-0 ATS
Chargers 2-0 ATS
Dolphins 2-0 ATS
Giants 2-0 ATS
Texans 2-0 ATS
Bucs 2-0 ATS
Falcons 2-0 ATS

— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 20, 2022

• 49ers (-1.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Watching Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers against Nathaniel Hackett of the Broncos in an NFL coaching matchup is kind of like Michelle Obama vs Melania Trump on Celebrity Jeopardy. It’s just not going to end well for one of them. Even Adam Gase and Matt Patricia are astonished by some of the boneheaded decisions Hackett has made during his first two weeks in charge of the Broncos.

As noted above, the 49ers are 31-14 SU with Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting QB. Garoppolo is beloved in the locker room. San Francisco players will run through a wall for him. The Niners also have the #4 NFL rushing attack. Hard to believe that this game actually opened Denver -2.5.

• Falcons (+1) at BetMGM. Claim this BetMGM promo code for your Week 3 NFL ATS picks

The Falcons are 0-2 straight up and 2-0 ATS. They’ve lost a pair of games by a combined total of five points. They gave the Super Bowl champion Rams all they could handle before falling 31-27. This game was a more enticing play at the opening line of Atlanta +2.5. Seattle, though, has gone six quarters without scoring. All-purpose backs Javonte Williams (Denver) and Jeff Wilson Jr (San Francisco) both carved through the Seahawks’ defense for over 100 yards. Now Seattle must deal with Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson.

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