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Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Sep 20, 2022 · 1:33 PM PDT

Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread
Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift celebrates a touchdown against the Washington Commanders during the second half at Ford Field, Sept. 18, 2022. Nfl Washington Commanders At Detroit Lions
  • Week 3 of the NFL season begins with the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to Cleveland  on TNF in a battle of AFC North squads
  • The Detroit Lions are ATS sensations of the NFL
  • Read below for an analysis of our best Week 3 NFL picks against the spread

In our Week 3 NFL picks against the spread, suppose someone was to tell you that the Detroit Lions, Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans were elite NFL squads?

Certainly, you’d greet that news with a look of stunned surprise. Well, you would, unless you’re an experienced NFL against the spread bettor.

In that case, you’d be nodding in agreement.

Two weeks into the NFL season, eight teams are retaining a perfect 2-0 slate against the spread. The Lions, Falcons and Texans are among those clubs.

And yet, you can get more points at NFL betting sites by betting the Lions, who are 6-point underdogs at the Minnesota Vikings, than on any other NFL team on the Week 3 schedule.

Houston (+3.5 at the Chicago Bears) and Atlanta (+2.5 at the Seattle Seahawks) are also getting points again this week.

Let’s take a look and see if any of these ATS dynamos made their way into the best bets in our Week 3 NFL picks against the spread.

Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings MIN -6 DET 1
San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos DEN -1.5 SF 1
Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks SEA -2.5 ATL 1

Odds as of September 20 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the NFL. Don’t forget to also check out this Barstool Sportsbook promo code worth an enticing $1k risk-free bet as well!

Our top picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Lions, 49ers and Falcons.

 

 

Pick 1: Lions Are Spreading the Wealth

When it comes time for against the spread betting, the Detroit Lions are absolutely dominant. Since Dan Campbell took over as head coach in 2021, the Lions are 13-6 ATS. They’re hitting on the spread 68.4% of the time. Only the Dallas Cowboys (14-6, 70%) are a better ATS bet over the past two years.

And betting houses are willing to make the Lions 6-point road underdogs to Minnesota as they head into the land of the Vikings? The NFL public betting splits are displaying the folly of not believing in these Honolulu blue and silver-clad warriors.

There’s 81% of ATS handle and 78% of ATS bets backing Detroit. These odds quickly shortened from the opening line of Minnesota -7.5.

Detroit is 3-0 ATS in the last three games against the Vikings. The Lions are also 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against NFC opponents.

Pick: Detroit Lions +6 (-110)

Pick 2: Will 49ers Be Finer With Jimmy G?

The best bet on the 49ers vs Broncos game just might be the contract of San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s earning $250,000 for every game where he plays more than 25% of the offensive snaps. He’ll be pocketing another $100,000 should the 49ers win the game.

Now that Jimmy G is back at the helm for the Niners with Trey Lance (broken ankle) out for the season, here’s a valid question – how on earth can anyone favor Denver to win this game? Let’s rephrase that – how can anyone who’s watched Nathaniel Hackett coach a game be backing the Broncos to win ever?

Take San Francisco as 1.5-point underdogs all day here.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers +1.5 (-110)

Pick 3: Falcons On the ATS Marcus

Forget the teams involved in this game for a moment and ask yourself this – would you rather have Marcus Mariota or Geno Smith as your team’s QB1?

Mariota’s Falcons played both the Saints and Rams tough and could’ve won either game. They lost by a combined total of five points. Smith’s Seahawks barely beat Nathaniel Hackett’s team, which (see above) doesn’t really count.

Yet it’s the Seahawks who are the chalk this week, as 2.5-point favorites over the Falcons. Go figure.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (-110)

  • ATS season record 4-2 (+1.86 units)

NFL Week 3 ATS Quick Picks

  • Browns (-4.5) vs Steelers: Jacoby Brissett can’t lose to Joe Flacco and Mitch Trubisky in successive weeks, can he?
  • Bills (-5.5) vs Dolphins: Even with the Bills coming off a short week, this line has already lengthened by a point.
  • Ravens (-3) vs Patriots: Will Mac Jones be calling his old Alabama teammate Tua Tagovailoa for pointers on how to light up Baltimore?
  • Eagles (-6.5) vs Commanders: Carson Wentz facing his old team has implosion written all over it.
  • Chiefs (-6.5) vs Colts: If Matt Ryan is the answer for Indianapolis, it’s scary to think what the question might be.
  • Saints (-3) vs Panthers: New Orleans rebounds from a tough loss to Tampa Bay.
  • Texans (+2.5) vs Bears: Lovie Smith’s homecoming comes equipped with a happy ending.
  • Bengals (-4.5) vs Jets: Joe Burrow and company finally find a victory.
  • Buccaneers (-2) vs Packers: Aaron Rodgers may own Chicago, but Tom Brady is living rent-free in his head.
  • Jaguars (+7) vs Chargers: The Jags won’t win again, but Trevor Lawrence finds a way to keep it close.
  • Cardinals (+3.5) vs Rams: Ready for some more Kyler Murray magic?
  • Giants (-2.5) vs Cowboys: If the Giants go to 3-0, maybe just cash all NFL COY wagers on Brian Daboll right now.

 

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