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NFL First Coach Fired Odds – Are Kingsbury, Rhule & McCarthy On the Hot Seat?

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in NFL Football

Sep 16, 2022 · 6:41 AM PDT

Mike McCarthy
Sep 11, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
  • The NFL season is just underway as it heads into Week 2 but already the talk is about which head coaches could be in the hot seat
  • Several head coaches could find themselves unemployed should their teams stumble out of the gate
  • Read below for an analysis of the NFL first head coach fired odds and our best bet

The NFL is a fickle league, with very fewer franchises boasting a stable head coach that is with the team for many seasons. To boot, only Bill Belichick (Patriots), Mike Tomlin (Steelers), John Harbaugh (Ravens) and Pete Carroll (Seahawks) have been with their respective teams for more than a decade.

Those head honchos likely aren’t in danger of receiving a pink slip, and could see their NFL Coach of the Year odds shorten with a dynamite start to the campaign. There are plenty of others who aren’t so lucky, as they could find themselves out of a job should their teams falter.

2022 NFL First Head Coach Fired Odds

Head Coach (Team) Odds
Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals) +225
Matt Rhule (Panthers) +300
Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) +325
Love Smith (Texans) +475
Arthur Smith (Falcons) +475
Nathaniel Hackett (Broncos) +490
Pete Carroll (Seahawks) +500
Ron Rivera (Commanders) +550
Robert Saleh (Jets) +590
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) +625
Matt Eberflus (Bears) +625
Brian Daboll (Giants) +700
Matt Lafleur (Packers) +800
Frank Reich (Colts) +825
Doug Pederson (Jaguars) +850
Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) +1150
Dennis Allen (Saints) +1150
Mike Vrabel (Titans) +1375
Kyle Shanahan (49ers) +1500
Josh McDaniels (Raiders) +1800
Dan Campbell (Lions) +2000
Nick Sirianni (Eagles) +2000
Kevin O’Connell (Vikings) +2350
Todd Bowles (Buccaneers) +3000
John Harbaugh (Ravens) +3500
Brandon Staley (Chargers) +4000
Mike Tomlin (Steelers) +4500
Sean McDermott (Bills) +5000
Bill Belichick (Patriots) +5500
Zac Taylor (Bengals) +5500
Sean McVay (Rams) +6000
Andy Reid (Chiefs) +7000

SBD odds as of September 16th. These odds are for entertainment purposes only

Coming into the campaign New York Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh potentially might be in trouble. He’s going into his second season, and his squad is perennially disappointing. New York has the fifth hardest NFL strength of schedule, plus they play in a division with the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills. Saleh has +590 odds to receiving his walking papers first in the odds above.



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Arizona Cardinals’ main man Kliff Kingsbury is the favorite to be jettisoned first, following an atrocious end to last season, which saw the Cards lose five of their last six (including playoffs), plus a 44-21 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs in week 1 this year.

The Panthers’ Matt Rhule is the second choice to be canned, as he’s won only five games in each of his first two cracks at the NFL. Carolina has failed to establish a long-term solution at quarterback, bouncing between Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, PJ Walker, and now Baker Mayfield.

Coaches to Consider to Be Fired First

The aforementioned Jets coach Robert Saleh could be sinking very quickly, as he’s without the services of his young quarterback Zach Wilson for an extended period of time. The 2021 second overall pick is being replaced by Joe Flacco, who hasn’t been effective in years. The Jets have a very tough schedule, which sees them face the Browns, Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins, Packers, Broncos, Patriots and Bills before their Week 10 bye week.

The Colts Frank Reich (+825) is someone to consider as well. Indy had a brutal Week 18 loss to Jacksonville last year that clearly stuck in the craw of owner Jim Irsay. Reich was only able to muster a tie in Week 1 against the Texans, and they play in Jacksonville in Week 2, a place where they’ve strangely lost six straight.

It gets much tougher after that, with contests versus the Chiefs, Titans and Broncos. Indy should, in theory, be solid, but if they stumble, might Irsay lose patience early?

Mike McCarthy Could Be In Trouble

On one hand, the Cowboys losing star QB Dak Prescott to hand surgery should give Mike McCarthy some run, in that he has an excuse if the team doesn’t perform to expectations. On the other hand, that’s exactly why McCarthy might be sweating if Cooper Rush isn’t the solution under center and the Cowboys’ season tanks early.

Perhaps of bigger concern for McCarthy was how the ‘Boys playoff ended. There was a controversial play call that ran off all the time on the clock in the NFC Wild Card tilt against the 49ers that saw another season in Big D end in bitter disappointment. There were rumblings that McCarthy could be in trouble following that loss, but he was able to hold onto his job.

Owner Jerry Jones has preached patience, perhaps to their detriment, with his previous coach Jason Garrett who he steadfastly stood by for a decade. With his squad not making it back to the NFC title game since 1995, there’s a tremendous chance he pulls the chute on the Mike McCarthy experience and sends him packing, instead of prolonging the agony like he did with Garrett.

Pick: Mike McCarthy (+325)

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