Jay Gruden Odds-On Favorite to Be First Coach Fired; Byron Leftwich Favored to Be Next Redskins Coach

• The Washington Redskins Dismal Season Got Worse Last Week, As They Fell To
  0-4
• Jay Gruden Is Unquestionably on the Hot Seat
• Speculation About Gruden’s Successor is Already Underway With Byron Leftwich as
  the Favorite

As we head towards Week 5 of the NFL season, there plenty of feel good stories in the NFL. The Patriots are undefeated and look to be contenders for yet another Super Bowl appearance, the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes have picked up where they left off last season, and San Francisco has been a pleasant surprise, starting the season at 3-0.

But, just like every year, there are plenty of not-so-good stories, as well. There are six winless teams in the NFL going into Week 5.

The New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals and the Washington Redskins have all yet to win a football game this season, which brings us to the gambling question at hand: Which current NFL head coach will be the first to be fired?

There happens to be a heavy favorite in this race, Washington head coach Jay Gruden. He was already the favorite prior to Week 4, and his odds got shorter after the Redskins’ listless performance versus the New York Giants.

Odds On the First NFL Head Coach to Lose His Job During the Regular Season

Gruden Is the Odds-On Favorite for a Reason

Gruden, a -125 favorite, is a smart bet.

The Jets and Dolphins have both been putrid so far this season, but both of their coaches – Adam Gase and Brian Flores – are in their first year with the team, so it is likely they will be given the leeway to at least finish the season, and maybe even be given another crack next year.

The same is true for Vic Fangio, Zac Taylor, and Kliff Kingsbury, head coaches of the winless Broncos, Bengals and Cardinals, respectively.

Gruden is the only non-rookie head coach of a winless NFL team after four weeks of the season. He is in his sixth season at the helm for the Redskins and, while he has had two winning seasons, Washington was a sub-.500 team in 2017 and 2018 and have been unable to recapture the glory of years past during Gruden’s tenure.

"Dumpster Fires have asked us to stop comparing them to the Washington Redskins."@AdamSchein says Jay Gruden's "YOLO" approach to answering questions is comical at this point pic.twitter.com/F44xZjJFoI

— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) October 2, 2019

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn and Texans head coach Bill O’Brien are both at +500 to be fired first, but both have been unquestionably more successful than Gruden.

Quinn has a .544 career winning percentage in over four seasons, along with a Super Bowl appearance in 2016. O’Brien, in his sixth season like Gruden, has a .524 career winning percentage and three playoff appearances. Gruden’s career winning percentage sits at .423.

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn and Texans head coach Bill O’Brien are both at +500 to be fired first, but both have been unquestionably more successful than Gruden.

Moreover, both the Texans and Falcons actually have talented rosters that are capable of winning enough games to save their coaches, unlike the Redskins, who are one of the worst teams both on paper and on the field, lacking talent at the skill positions and on the defensive side of the ball.

The one caveat is the unpredictability (some might call it incompetence) of Redskins’ owner Daniel Snyder, who has not been known to make smart football decisions. However, even he should be able to see that the Redskins are the team most in need of immediate change.

Now that that’s settled, the next question is who will be Jay Gruden’s eventual replacement.

Odds On Redskins Head Coach in Week 1 of 2020 NFL season

Mike McCarthy Is the Safe Bet

While this prop bet only has action if Washington names a new head coach in 2020, the odds are interesting.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is the current hot commodity after getting credit for Jameis Winston’s recent hot streak. Whether he will remain a hot commodity will depend on Tampa Bay’s and Winston’s continued offensive success, which is a hard sell.

Bruce Arians will get a lot of deserved love for the schooling he is putting down today, but Byron Leftwich is calling the plays, all of which are working

— Steve Wyche (@wyche89) September 29, 2019

The safest bet seems to be former Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy is a proven winner as a head coach, who will likely be eager for a second chance in the NFL after sitting out 2019. He was also a candidate for various head coaching positions this past offseason, but did not make any team’s final cut.

Snyder is likely to make a safe play with his next head coaching decision and McCarthy fits that bill better than the other contenders.

My picks: Jay Gruden (-125) to be fired first. Mike McCarthy (+275) to coach Redskins in 2020.