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Kyler Murray Continues to Separate From the Field in Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Mar 23, 2020 · 1:27 PM PDT

Kyler Murray
Arizona's Kyler Murray is the top choice to win OROY this season. Photo by @TylerJaggi (Twitter)
  • Kyler Murray’s average odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year have been shortened to +220
  • Murray has received rave reviews from Cardinals mini camp and should excel in Arizona’s new offense
  • Is Murray still the best bet on the board, or has all his value dried up?

Kyler Murray’s NFL ceiling may be sky-high, but the value in his Offensive Rookie of the Year odds is at an all-time low. The number one pick opened as a big favorite to win the award back in April, and the separation between himself and the rest of the rookie class continues to grow in the eyes of online betting sites.

2019 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Odds
Kyler Murray +250
Dwayne Haskins +700
Josh Jacobs +800
Marquise Brown +1200
DK Metcalf +1200
Mecole Hardman +1400
Drew Lock +1600
David Montgomery +1700
AJ Brown +1900
Miles Sanders +2000
TJ Hockenson +2200

*Odds taken 06/18/19

Despite opening with odds just longer than +200 back in April, there were odds on Murray as high as +600 if you shopped around. We implored you to snatch up that value while you could because it predictably didn’t last long. Now Murray’s odds have been shortened to +250, making it extremely difficult to back him despite the glowing reviews coming out of Arizona’s OTAs.

Murray Has Exceeded Expectations so Far

He’s already drawing comparisons to Russell Wilson and has blown away his teammates with his combination of speed, poise and accuracy.

His prior experience playing in an Air Raid offense has drastically reduced his learning curve at the NFL level, which is typically a big stumbling block for most rookie quarterbacks. He has an explosive set of playmakers at his disposal and there’s little doubt he’ll succeed in his first year.

The problem is we’re getting the worst of the number. If you were able to grab +600 when it was available, give yourself a round of applause, because there’s no way I’m swallowing roughly a third of that number now.

There are plenty of value plays left on the board, including my two personal favorites at the running back position.

Running Backs Own the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award

The Offensive Rookie of the Year award has been won by a running back 34 of 52 times, including three of the last four. This year, there are a handful of running backs that could see sustained workloads, and two, in particular, could be in line for a bell-cow role.

Josh Jacobs is an explosive back, who should command the bulk of the Raiders backfield touches. He’ll be their first option near the goal line, and if he can produce in the passing game, he’ll have the chance to make a similar impact as previous award winners Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley. +800 seems too short for a player with double-digit touchdown upside.

And speaking of upside, there is no shortage of that with Miles Sanders. He’s the Eagles’ highest-drafted running back in a decade and he finished with more rushing yards in his final year at Penn State than Saquon Barkley had in his. He has a clear path to substantial playing time in one of the best offenses in football, making his +2000 odds extremely valuable.

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