- The Las Vegas Raiders clash with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday (Nov. 25th 4:30 pm ET)
- Tony Pollard ranks fifth among qualified running backs in yards per route run this season
- Read below for analysis and our favorite Raiders-Cowboys player prop bets
The theme of Thursday’s NFL Thanksgiving tripleheader is injuries. All three of the contests are plagued by them, including the late afternoon tilt between Las Vegas and Dallas. The Cowboys side is especially interesting given the abundance of skilled players who are either out, questionable or trying to play through pain.
These injuries have opened up some value in the player prop market, and we’re going to try to capitalize on that with our picks below.
Raiders vs Cowboys Player Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Derek Carr (LV)||23.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)||261.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Dak Prescott (DAL)||23.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)||271.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -235 | Un +170)|
|Running Backs||Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Josh Jacobs (LV)||N/A||44.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)||15.5 (Ov +100 | Un -135)||62.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||87.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Tony Pollard (DAL)||N/A||41.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||58.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Wide Receivers + Tight Ends||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Hunter Renfrow (LV)||5.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||52.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||19.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Bryan Edwards (LV)||N/A||30.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Darren Waller (LV)||5.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120)||71.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||23.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Michael Gallup (DAL)||N/A||56.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||N/A|
|Dalton Schultz (DAL)||N/A||47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
Dallas is currently a 7.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 51.5. Amari Cooper is out due to COVID, Blake Jarwin is done for the season, CeeDee Lamb is questionable after suffering a concussion four days ago, while Ezekiel Elliott is trying to play through a knee injury.
Add it all up, and we should see increased playing time for sophomore RB Tony Pollard.Advertising Disclosure
Prop #1: Tony Pollard Over 58.5 Rushing/Receiving Yards
It doesn’t take an NFL scout to notice the disparity in explosiveness between Pollard and Elliott. It’s even more evident now that Elliott is nursing this knee issue. Pollard’s playing time has already been trending up, playing an average of 38% of the team’s offensive snaps over the past three weeks. Now that a short week is on deck, he should see even more opportunity.
Only three running backs have gained 2+ yards after contact on at least 75% of their carries this season (PFF)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 23, 2021
Pollard averages a full yard more than Elliott per rush, and 2.5 yards more per reception. He ranks fifth among all qualified RB’s in yards per route run, and only six teams have given up more production to enemy running backs than Las Vegas.
Kellen Moore mixing it up with Tony Pollard, who fakes reverse to Dak then bursts 31 yards upfield on Cowboys’ first scoring drive
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) November 21, 2021
Pollard has racked up at least 70 total yards in back-to-back outings, and has cleared 63 total yards in seven of 10 contests.
Picks: Tony Pollard Over 58.5 Rushing/Receiving yards, Over 13.5 Receiving Yards
Raiders vs Cowboys Scoring Props
|Player||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Anytime TD|
|Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)||+450||-190|
|Josh Jacobs (LV)||+900||+130|
|Michael Gallup (DAL)||+1000||+150|
|Cedrick Wilson (DAL)||+1000||+140|
|Tony Pollard (DAL)||+1200||+175|
|Dalton Schultz (DAL)||+1200||+170|
|Darren Waller (LV)||+1200||+175|
|Hunter Renfrow (LV)||+1400||+200|
|Kenyan Drake (LV)||+1700||+260|
|Dallas Cowboys Defense||+2200||+330|
|Bryan Edwards (LV)||+2200||+350|
|Dak Prescott (DAL)||+2500||+400|
|Zay Jones (LV)||+2800||+450|
|Noah Brown (DAL)||+3000||+450|
|Malik Turner (DAL)||+3000||+450|
|Desean Jackson (LV)||+3500||+500|
|Foster Moreau (LV)||+3500||+500|
|Derek Carr (LV)||+4000||+700|
|Las Vegas Raiders Defense||+4000||+700|
Prop #2: Schult To Score 1st TD
One look at the odds and it’s clear bookmakers are expecting Dallas to strike first. Five of the six players with the shortest first TD odds are Cowboys, including Dalton Schultz.
The third-year tight end is enjoying a breakout campaign, and has virtually no competition at his position with Jarwin down for the season. Schultz led the all Dallas pass catchers in receptions, receiving yards and routes run in Week 11, while playing 99% of the offensive snaps.
Dak Prescott finds Dalton Schultz for six ⚡️pic.twitter.com/E7DCCtru8U
— TWSN (@TWSN___) September 28, 2021
Now he catches a Raiders defense that has struggled all season versus tight ends. Las Vegas has allowed the third most production to enemy tight ends, coughing up five touchdowns to that position in their last seven games.
On the other side of the ball, fellow tight end Darren Waller is also a strong anytime TD bet. Waller is fresh off his best game since Week 1 on Sunday, hauling in seven catches for 116 yards.
Raiders TE Darren Waller has recorded his 12th career 100-yard receiving game today against the Bengals.
That's the 3rd-most by any TE since he made his debut in 2015 (T. Kelce, 27, R. Gronkowski, 14). pic.twitter.com/NyGwTW1vvC
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 21, 2021
He’s found the end zone only twice this season, but with the Las Vegas wide receivers facing difficult matchups on the outside, he should be able to eat over the middle. Dallas has allowed the 11th most production to enemy tight ends, further elevating Waller’s ceiling.
Picks: Dalton Schult 1st TD (+1200), Darren Waller Anytime TD (+175)