Los Angeles Chargers vs Atlanta Falcons Odds & Predictions for Week 9
- The Chargers and Falcons hook up Sunday, November 6th in a battle of two teams desperate for a victory
- LA is a 3-point road favorite over NFC South division-leading Atlanta
- See the Chargers vs Falcons odds and picks ahead of Sunday afternoon’s game at 1:00 pm ET
Justin Herbert and the Chargers are coming off their bye week, and they’re paying a visit to Marcus Mariota and the NFC South division-leading Falcons. LA lost their latest contest to the Seahawks, but before that had strung together three straight victories. The Falcons survived a wild shootout against the Panthers in overtime to get to 4-and-4. Read on for some Chargers vs Falcons analysis.
Oddsmakers aren’t expecting either team to be serious contenders in the Super Bowl odds, though the Chargers have decent value at +3000. Despite leading their division, Arthur Smith and co. are still +10000 to win the Lombardi Trophy.
Chargers vs Falcons Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | -3 (-112) | O 49.5 (-112) | -162 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +3 (-109) | U 49.5 (-109) | +133 |
Odds as of November 5. Be sure to check out this unique Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend.
The Chargers are -162 favorites on the moneyline, 3-point favorites against the spread, and the total is set at 49.5 in this Chargers vs Falcons matchup.
LA is expected to win 29.1-27.7 based on our formula.
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Kickoff at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA is set for 1:00pm ET. With it being inside a dome, weather won’t be a factor. FOX is carrying the broadcast in the United States.
Chargers vs Falcons Betting Analysis
The LA Chargers limped out of the gate, winning just one of their first three games (including a 28-point loss to Jacksonville), but then righted the ship with three victories, despite Justin Herbert playing through sore ribs. They then got pasted by two touchdowns by Seattle before a bye week.
The Los Angeles Chargers are 3-0 when Justin Herbert doesn’t throw an INT.
And 1-3 when he does throw an INT. pic.twitter.com/TPDFilo3Aq
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 4, 2022
The Chargers have been able to move the ball despite Justin Herbert only having Keenan Allen for parts of two games this season. In their latest contest, Mike Williams went down injured, forcing him to miss this game and likely others. The defense has been the achilles heel, with LA giving up the second most points per game in the league.
As for the Falcons, their first five games were all very competitive, as each one was a close one-score affair. They then surprisingly blasted the 49ers 28-14, then followed that up with a 35-17 meltdown to Cincinnati. Last week it was back to the close games, as they won a wild see-saw battle against division rival Carolina 37-34 in OT.
Marcus Mariota has been efficient, if unspectacular. Expecting him to put up gaudy stats hasn’t exactly bore fruit, as Week 8 was the first time he threw for over 200 yards in his last five outings.
Y’all forget that Marcus Mariota also won a Heisman pic.twitter.com/41fJORox2Y
— Miles Garrett (@MilesGarrettTV) October 23, 2022
Like LA, the Falcons D has given up lots of points, ranking fourth worst in the category. They’re the 13th overall team in the league, according to Pro Football Focus (4th on offense, 27th on defense). Their counterparts are a bottom-tier team, as they’re ranked 27th (28th on offense, 25th on D).
Chargers vs Falcons Injury Report
The Chargers come into this contest banged up, with several players already ruled out. That includes the top-two wideouts in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, TE Donald Parham Jr, kicker Dustin Hopkins, and two others.
#Chargers RB Austin Ekeler (abdomen) is off the injury report and will play Sunday vs. the #Falcons, while WRs Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle) are out.
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 4, 2022
The Falcons are dealing with far less injuries. The only two players ruled out are cornerback A.J. Terrell and guard Elijah Wilkinson. Safety Erik Harris was limited in practice. The team will make a decision whether they’ll activate RB Cordarrelle Patterson off injured reserve before this one, which would give the offense a great shot in the arm.
60% of the bets have been placed for the Chargers to cover the three-point spread, with 85% of the handle placed on the over in Chargers vs Falcons NFL betting trends, with 65% of bets on LA to win on the moneyline.
Chargers vs Falcons Prediction
Expect there to be a lot of points in this game, with neither team exactly putting up much fight defensively. In three of their last four games, the Chargers have gone over the listed 49.5 point total, and that’s been over in the last two Falcons games.
The Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in first down pass DVOA (52.3%).
The Chargers defense allows a 31.7% DVOA on first down passes, 28th in the NFL. #DirtyBirds pic.twitter.com/6OPFJ4NLhW
— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) November 4, 2022
Atlanta is the healthier club, and they are playing at home, where they’ve gone 3-and-1 this season. Justin Herbert and co. will still put up yards and points, but not having his top-two wideouts will factor into Atlanta being able to score just a bit more.
The Pick:
- Falcons +3 (-109); 1 unit to win 0.92 units
- Over 49.5 (-112); 1 unit to win 0.89 units
2022 record: 11-10; +1.96 units
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Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 16 years, where he's been featured on Sportscentre, That's Hockey, That's Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.
