Mac Jones Now Has Second-Best Odds to Win NFL OROY After Patriots Release Cam Newton

• Mac Jones now has the second-best odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
• New England’s first-round pick saw his odds improve after the team cut Cam Newton
• Updated odds and analysis below on whether or not the Alabama product is a good bet

With the stunning release of Cam Newton by the New England Patriots, Mac Jones saw his odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year change dramatically. The team’s first-round pick out of Alabama has seen his odds go from an average of +1000 to as short as +500 in some books. Jones joins Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence as the only first-year players to be under center in Week 1.

Just how stunning was the move up the board? Just over two weeks ago, Jones was not even among the top five options on our NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. Now, the Jacksonville native is pushing Lawrence —  the Jaguars QB — as the top betting choice to win the rookie honors.

Odds to Win 2021 NFL OROY

Odds as of August 31st at FanDuel

Mac Daddy

Jones earned the starting job through steady on-field improvement since being selected with the No. 15 pick in April’s draft. While Newton started all three preseason games, the rookie outplayed him.

From NFL Now: The #Patriots will start QB Mac Jones, in part because he was even better than they anticipated when they drafted him. pic.twitter.com/Ma5BBCfyFW

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) August 31, 2021

He finished the preseason going 36-of-52 for 389 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions in 107 snaps compared to Newton’s 14-of-21 for 162 yards with a touchdown and a pick in 39 snaps. But it’s possible Jones “won” the job last week. While the unvaccinated Newton missed practice after violating the league’s COVID-19 protocols, Jones had command of the Pats’ offense in practice — including setting protections and checking out of plays. After the joint session with the Giants, Jones said he felt like he was in a “game flow.”

>> Bet Mac Jones to Win OROY at FanDuel Here! <<

Clearly, that type of attitude impressed Bill Belichick. The decision to start Jones was likely sealed after a 10-of-14, 156-yard, one-touchdown night against New York Sunday. Having the trust of arguably the greatest coach in NFL history bodes well for Jones out of the gate.

The Cupboard Is Not Bare

With the other big news out of Foxborough Tuesday — that 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore will miss at least the first six weeks of the season while recovering from offseason surgery on a torn quad — New England’s defense will be without its best player to start the 2021 campaign. That means the team could be in for some shootouts — with Jones potentially putting up gaudy statistics.

Defensive backfield will be tested. Expect a lot of three-four wide attacks since the DL and LB groups are the strength of @Patriots defense. https://t.co/1QIVyYLKln

— Tom Leyden (@TomLeyden) August 31, 2021

It’s no secret New England’s talent — or lack thereof — in its receiving corps during the 2019 season helped usher an end to the Tom Brady Era. Instead of Randy Moss, Wes Welker, or Rob Gronkowski (i.e. players he had faith in), the GOAT was throwing to guys like Phillip Dorsett, N’Keal Harry an aged Julian Edelman, and an undrafted rookie in Jakobi Meyers.

Fast forward to 2021, and Meyers is entering his third season. Plus, the team has added pass-catching tight end Hunter Henry from the Chargers, and veteran wideout Nelson Agholor from the Raiders. With command of the offense and confidence in his targets, Jones appears to be in an attractive position.

The Competition

While Jones may lack the mobility of a Justin Fields or a Trey Lance, that didn’t hurt Brady in New England’s system. Jones had the highest Pro Football Focus grade (92.2) — by far — of any other rookie quarterback this preseason. He easily outpaced Wilson (85.7), Lawrence (78.3), Fields (67.6), and Lance (56.7) in that category. He also had the most completions and passing yards of his fellow first-year QBs.

If there were to be a 2021 re-draft today, where would Mac Jones be taken?

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) August 31, 2021

Justin Herbert won this award last season throwing 4,336 yards, 31 passing touchdowns, ten interceptions, and rushing for five more scores on a 66.7% completion percentage. Jones was better than that (69.2%) in three games this August and set an FBS record (77.4%) for accuracy last season at Alabama.

Jones, like Brady, is known for his efficiency and ability to put the ball in places where his receivers can make plays. Starting Week 1 — with the possibility of being involved in high-scoring games early and Belichick’s belief — gives Jones a very good chance to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award.