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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Same Game Parlay

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in NFL Football

Updated Sep 24, 2023 · 11:33 AM PDT

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in the pocket
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) looks to throw the ball down the field in the second half during the game between the New England Patriots and host Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, on Sunday, September 11, 2022. Final score, Dolphins, 20, Patriots, 7.
  • Week 2’s Sunday Night Football matchup features an AFC East battle between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots
  • What are the best options for a Dolphins vs Patriots same-game parlay tonight?
  • Below, see a +422 three-leg Dolphins vs Patriots SGP for Sunday Night Football tonight

For Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots (0-1, 0-1 home), Week 2’s clash with division-rival Miami (1-0, 1-0 away) already feels like a must-win. After dropping their season-opener to Philadelphia at home, New England can ill-afford to fall two games under .500 – with two home losses – if they harbor legitimate hopes of making the postseason.

The Dolphins vs Patriots odds don’t portend a positive outcome for the once-dynastic Pats, who are positioned as 2.5-point underdogs on Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium (8:15 pm ET). But today’s Miami vs New England same-game parlay doesn’t call for the Pats to win outright; it only banks on New England maintaining a certain 15-year trend against their division rivals.

Dolphins vs Patriots Same-Game Parlay Picks

Pick Odds
Patriots +3.5 -140
1st Quarter Under 7.5 -112
Tua Tagovailoa Under 268.5 Passing Yards -110

This Dolphins/Patriots same-game parlay starts with a bet on the Pats to cover an alternate spread (+3.5), continues with a wager on a low-scoring first quarter (under 7.5), and culminates with the under on Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards.

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Odds from FanDuel on 2:18 pm ET, Sep. 16. Claim a FanDuel promo code to bet on MIA vs NE on Sunday Night Football in Week 2.

MIA vs NE Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Patriots +3.5 (-141)

The standard spread for this game is sitting at Dolphins -2.5. At FanDuel, bettors can get an alt spread of New England +3.5 at -140 odds, crossing the key number of three. While Miami has won four of the last five matchups against New England, including two of the last four at Gillette, the Phins haven’t won by more than a field goal in New England since 2008. Their 2021 win in Foxborough came by a single point (17-16) while their 2019 victory was by a field goal (27-24).

Expectations are low for the Patriots this season, but their Week 1 loss to Philadelphia contained numerous silver linings. The banged-up  offensive line limited the Eagles’ league-best pass rush to a reasonable two sacks despite Mac Jones throwing 54 passes on the day.

New England actually out-gained Philadelphia by a wide margin (382 yards to 251), but shot itself in the foot with two early turnovers and seven penalties. After a pick-six and subsequent fumble put the Pats in a 16-0 hole in the first quarter, they outscored the reigning NFC-champs 20-9 the rest of the way, but still fell short in a 25-20 setback. The defense limited Jalen Hurts to 4.1 yards per pass and the Philly run game to 3.9 yards per carry. It was a very strong showing from Belichick’s defense and that unit will keep this game competitive throughout.

Dolphins vs Patriots SGP Pick #2: 1st Quarter Under 7.5

Don’t expect this game to look anything like Miami’s Week 1 clash with the Chargers, an epic 36-34 shootout. In the last six games between Miami and New England, only one fourth quarter has exceeded seven points. Two have ended 0-0 and they have, altogether, averaged just 5.2 points in the first stanza.

Miami’s defense was absolutely shredded on the ground by Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelly in Week 1, which is not something that’s terribly likely to repeat against New England.

The Patriots only had 76 yards on the ground against the Eagles on 22 carries (3.5 YPC). Lead back Rhamondre Stephenson was held to just 2.1 yards per carry while aging Zeke Elliott managed 4.1 on a light, seven-carry workload.

The Week 2 NFL odds list the game total for MIA vs NE at 46. But the NFL public betting trends show the public hammering the under to the tune of 69% of game-total handle.

Dolphins vs Patriots SGP Pick #3: Tagovailoa Under 268.5 Passing Yards

In Miami’s thrilling win at the Chargers, Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns, falling just 30 yards short of his career high. LA’s pass rush was nonexistent all day, recording zero sacks. Miami’s offensive line won’t find life nearly so easy against a New England defense that finished third in sacks last year (54) and recorded another three in Week 1 against Philadelphia. The Dolphins vs Patriots player props show Tua’s passing yards over/under sitting at 268.5, one of the highest totals of the week among starting QBs.

In four career games against the Pats, Tagovailoa has passed for 145, 202, 109, and 270 yards, exceeding his Week 2 total just once while averaging

If there is one thing Bill Belichick defenses are known for, it’s taking away what the opponents’ offense does best. In this case, that means putting considerable resources into containing Tyreek Hill and forcing Miami into run plays and check downs.


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