The Most Notable NFL Trend for Each Wild Card Matchup to Help Make Your Picks

The 2026 NFL Playoffs kick off with Wild Card Weekend on Saturday, January 10th. The Rams and Panthers get the playoffs started, and the first round finishes up with a Texans vs Steelers matchup on Monday night. Before you lock in any bets for the Wild Card round, take a look at these NFL team trends I have unearthed, which focus on ATS, over/under, and straight up results.

I will be the first to say there is no statistic, trend, or evidence you can find that will lead to a 100% win rate with any NFL picks. Even trends that do have a perfect win rate right now could lose. That’s the beauty of sports – anything can happen, especially the unexpected! However, these NFL trends are simply meant to provide you with how these teams have performed against the spread in the past when put in similar situations.

These trends can then be used to help put the biases aside and pinpoint areas where sportsbooks, or the public, are allowing recent results or fandom get in the way of how these lines should be set.

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers

The Rams are 4-2 (.667) against the spread when favored by a touchdown or more over their last 6 games

This trend cuts against conventional wisdom about large road spreads, but the data speaks clearly. When Los Angeles is heavily favored, they tend to cover the big spread. The massive -10.5 point spread against the Panthers might seem intimidating, especially after they lost to Carolina in Week 13 in this same scenario, but it aligns perfectly with the Rams’ pattern of overwhelming inferior opponents.

Rams ATS Results as 7+ Point Favorites

Carolina’s offensive struggles are well-documented, with overs hitting in just 1 of their last 4 home games. Their inability to generate consistent scoring drives, ranking 27th in points scored and 27th in total yards, creates perfect conditions for blowout losses. In fact, six of Carolina’s nine losses have come by double digits.

Based on the past results, if you do believe the Rams get revenge for their Week 13 loss, where Matthew Stafford turned the ball over three times in one of his worst games of the season, then you might as well bet them to cover. But if you don’t think they’ll cover, a bet on the Panthers moneyline might be worth it – both of LA’s ATS losses in this situation were also straight up losses.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

The Packers are 13-3-1 (.765) when favored by fewer than 7 points over their last 17 games

This trend represents mathematical gold for the analytical bettor. When oddsmakers expect a competitive game from Green Bay, the franchise consistently delivers results that exceed market expectations. Currently installed as slim -1 to -1.5 point road favorites (at the time of writing), depending which sportsbook you check, the Packers find themselves in their wheelhouse.

Packers Games Favored <7 Points ATS Results

The 13-3-1 record is just simply looking at straight up results, which would correlate to a moneyline bet. The only concern I have with this trend is that two of the three losses have come in the last two games they have played in this scenario. But to be fair, Jordan Love left their game against Baltimore, thrusting Malik Willis in with no meaningful prep.

One of the many factors that has led to this success for the Packers is their ability to convert on third down. Green Bay has the second-best 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL, moving the chains on 48.8% of the third downs they face.

While this is one of the stronger trends in this list – due to the high winning percentage in a rather large sample size – I do want to mention the Packers have seemed to be trending in the wrong direction since Micah Parsons went down to injury. So, be careful going with this one, as there are a lot of added variables at play.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The over has hit in 15 of the Jaguars’ last 18 games after a win

I ran with this one last week as well, and it came through. So, why move away from something that’s working, right? Jacksonville consistently participates in high-scoring games following a win.

The Jags are coming off another win against the Titans in Week 18, where they managed to score 41 points, only needing seven points from the Titans to cash the over.

Jaguars Results After a Win

The total for the Jaguars’ Wild Card matchup with the Bills is set at 51.5, by far the biggest total of the week. But the data suggests it’s not high enough. In games following a win, Jacksonville and their opponent average 51.8 points per game.

The Bills are a good opponent to help out with this over, as they are tied for 4th in the NFL in points scored at 28.3, which is just 0.4 points per game more than the Jaguars average, and they also allow a decent amount of points too. While they rank 12th in points allowed, they have been helped by two games against the Jets, one against the Panthers, and a bad weather game against the Eagles.

Not to mention, Buffalo has only played two games against teams who finished in the top ten in scoring (both against the Patriots). If we just look at games played against teams who finished in the top 14 in scoring, the Bills allowed an average of 30.2 points per game.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are 3-5 straight up in their last 8 games where favored by 3+

Simply put, the Eagles have disappointed as favorites recently. While I do appreciate their Week 18 game against the Commanders was played with backups, it should also be noted that Washington started Josh Johnson at QB.

What gets even more concerning is when you consider the quality of opponent it has taken for the Eagles to get a win when seen as a favorite recently.

Eagles Results in Last 6 Games When 3+ Point Favorites

The wins came over the Giants, who finished 4-13, Raiders (3-14), and Commanders (5-12). But they even gave the Giants and Commanders one of their respective wins.

The 49ers, who are expecting Trent Williams back in the lineup, are a very good team – far superior to most teams in the list above. Not only is taking the 5.5 points with the Niners awfully enticing, but the +205 (at the time of writing) moneyline odds are also presenting serious value.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

The Patriots are 5-1 (.833) against the spread at home as favorites over their last 6 games

Gillette Stadium transforms the Patriots into a covering machine when they’re laying points. They have covered the spread in 83.3% of their last six home games as a favorite. If we extend this to the full season, the record falls to 5-2, as they lost to the Raiders at home in Week 1 as favorites.

Patriots ATS Results in Last 6 Games Where Favored

It is fair to question the quality of New England’s competition over their last six home games when favored, but the Chargers have some clear weaknesses to be exposed right now, namely their inability to protect Justin Herbert without their two starting offensive tackles. LA has allowed 3.5 sacks per game, which is tied for second-most in the NFL.

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are 1-5 against playoff teams this season

The Steelers getting into the playoffs after their Week 17 loss to the Browns was a bit of a surprise – the Ravens were clear favorites in their Week 18 matchup, and had an opportunity to win the game with a FG in the dying seconds. While Pittsburgh put forth a 10-7 record, they did not fare well against other teams who made the NFL playoffs.

Steelers Results vs Other Playoff Teams

The only playoff team they beat this season was the Patriots back in Week 3, who also face similar accusations of playing a light schedule. Not only did Pittsburgh lose to the other five playoff teams they played in the regular season, but they lost by double digits in four of them.

There are some legitimate questions around whether Pittsburgh belongs alongside most of the others in the playoff field, and they will face an incredibly tough test right away when they host the Texans.