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New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for Week 18

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in NFL Football

Updated Jan 7, 2023 · 8:30 AM PST

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert
Jan 1, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) celebrates with wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) after scoring a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
  • Miami plays host to the New York Jets meet in the regular-season finale on Sunday, January 8.
  • Miami has been bet up to a 3-point home favorite over the Jets at the Hard Rock Stadium.
  • Read below for New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins odds, analysis, and prediction.

Miami (8-8) is a 3-point home favorite against the New York Jets in the regular-season finale at 1 pm ET Sunday on FOX. The Dolphins can qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2016 if they beat the Jets and New England (8-8) loses at Buffalo. Read on for an analysis of the New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins.

New York (7-9) was eliminated from the postseason with a 23-6 loss at Seattle last week and will miss the playoffs for the 12th straight season, the longest active drought in the NFL. Both the Jets and the Dolphins have lost their last five games.

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
New York Jets +3 (-105) +144 Over 37.5 (-105)
Miami Dolphins -3 (-115) -172 Under 37.5 (-115)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook on Jan. 7.

Miami is a 3-point home favorite over the New York Jets in a series that the Dolphins have dominated since 2016. Miami lost the first meeting between the two this season 40-17 in New Jersey but is 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13. The Dolphins are 6-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS at home at that time.

The line has swung dramatically here. The Jets opened as a 1-point favorite before money poured in the other side. Miami is 8-8 ATS this season and 4-3 ATS at home. The Jets are 8-8 ATS and 5-3 ATS on the road.

Miami Shoots for the Postseason

The Dolphins are expected to give rookie third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson his third start of the season in a game they must win the make the playoffs. No. 2 Teddy Bridgewater suffered a dislocated pinkie while attempting to tackle Kyle Dugger on his 39-yard interception return for a touchdown in a 23-21 loss to New England last week.

After riding Tua Tagovailoa et al to an 8-3 start, the Dolphins have lost their last four games by six, three, six, and two points. Tagovailoa remains in the concussion protocol.

Raheem Mostert leads the Dolphins with 830 yards rushing, and he was a bright spot in the earlier loss to the Jets, rushing for 113 yards on 18 carries. Mostert had eight catches for 62 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots last week.

In Tagovailoa’s absence, the Dolphins have had a difficult time finding their wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who have 2,999 yards receiving. Hill has four receptions in three of the last four games and Waddle has only 14 receptions in the last five.

The Dolphins rank 20th in the league in total defense and 27th in scoring defense, and they have given up 27.3 points per game during the five-game losing streak.

Jets To Go With Flacco

Jets coach Robert Salah said he will return to quarterback Joe Flacco in the season finale, the second straight benching for 2021 No. 1 draft pick Zach Wilson and the Jets’ fifth quarterback change because of injury/inefficiency.

Flacco started the first three games before yielding to Wilson, who threw for 210 yards in a 40-17 victory over the Dolphins on Oct. 9, the Jets’ highest-scoring game of the season. Breece Hall had 197 yards from scrimmage in that one, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 7.

The Jets have not scored a touchdown in the last four games and have scored only four offensive touchdowns in the last five games because of up-and-down quarterback play, and they rank 22nd in total offense and 27th in scoring offense.

Flacco has thrown five touchdown passes, one short of Wilson’s total in his five starts, and he will play behind a makeshift offensive line that will be without three starters.

The Jets’ strength has been their defense. The Jets are fourth in total defense and in scoring defense and have 44 sacks, the sixth-most in franchise history. They are second in pass defense, and rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner leads the NFL with 20 passes defended.

New York Jets vs Miami Injury Report

Jets QB Mike White (ribs) practiced Friday and is listed as questionable. Jets starting offensive linemen LT Duane Brown (shoulder), RT Noah Fant (knee), and G Nate Herbig (calf) and defensive backs CB Brandin Echols (quadriceps) and S Lamarcus Joyner (hip) are out. OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (knee) will be a game-time decision, Saleh said.

Dolphins quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) is out and Teddy Bridgewater (finger) is questionable. LT Terron Armstead (hip), OT Kendall Lamm (ankle), and WR Ced Wilson (hip) are doubtful. LB Bradley Chubb (ankle) and CB Xavien Howard (knee) are probable.

New York Jets vs Miami Prediction

Miami is 0-3 when Tagovailoa does not start, and that does not bode well for a team that leads with its offense and will rely on rookie Thompson against the Jets’ No. 4-ranked defense. Miami is 11-2 in the last 13 home games and has dominated the series recently.

Miami has had three- and five-game losing streaks this season, and no team in NFL history has made the playoffs doing that. Just because a team just has to win to beat an underdog to make the playoffs does not mean that it will. The points are the play.

  • Pick: New York Jets +3 (-105)
  • Season NFL: 3-6-1 ATS

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