NFL Betting – Carolina Out for Revenge at Denver

Carolina Panthers (-3, 42 o/u) at Denver Broncos

The moment we have all been waiting for is finally here: the kickoff of the NFL season. When the Carolina Panthers (15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS in 2015) visit Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS in 2015) on Thursday night (8:30 PM Eastern), it will not only begin the 2016 NFL season, but also serve as a Super Bowl rematch, a first in the history of the NFL.

Last year’s MVP, Cam Newton (3,837 passing yards, 35 passing TDs, and ten INTs in 2015), enters this game with fresh memories of his Super Bowl 50 beatdown. The Panthers quarterback was sacked six times in the game, after only being sacked 33 times in the regular season.

It wasn’t just Cam who was underwhelming in the Super Bowl, though; Jonathan Stewart (989 rushing yards, and six TDs in 2015) also suffered due to Denver’s dominance in the trenches, only managing 29 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries.

Those numbers were uncharacteristic of the NFC champions, who had the best offense in the league throughout the regular season (31.3 points per game) and second-best rushing attack (142.6 yards per game).

While much remains the same for Carolina in 2016, a few areas are in flux. First off, their secondary will be missing their two starting corners from last year. After rescinding the franchise tag they had placed on Josh Norman, Carolina saw their top corner pack his bags for Washington. The Panthers also lost Charles Tillman to retirement. Now the team is counting on Bene Benwikere and a couple of rookies (James Bradberry and Daryl Worley) to fill the starting corner positions.

Things look brighter on offense with the return of star receiver Kelvin Benjamin. He missed all of 2015 due to a knee injury suffered in training camp. Benjamin posted 1,008 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in his rookie campaign (2014), and is expected to play about 30-35 snaps against Denver, as he is still working his way back to full strength.

Flipping to the home squad, the Broncos are the reigning Super Bowl champions and will celebrate their victory by raising the banner at Mile High Stadium on Thursday night. But this is not the exact same team that won that Super Bowl seven months ago, by any stretch.

The most popular face that won’t be suiting up in 2016 is Peyton Manning, who retired after winning his second Super Bowl. Although he didn’t put up Sheriff-like numbers in 2015, the NFL’s all-time leader in both passing yards and passing touchdowns was incredibly valuable due to his pre-snap intelligence. With Manning under center, the Broncos always had the right play called, and that duty will now fall on second-year pro Trevor Siemian.

The seventh-round pick beat out Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch for the starting job this preseason, and is set to take the second snap of his NFL career. (The only other was a kneel-down.) Siemian won’t be asked to shoulder the offense. The Broncos will go run-heavy with C.J. Anderson (720 rushing yards, and five TDs in 2015) healthy and ready carry the rock. When Anderson needs a blow, Denver will turn to rookie Devontae Booker, whose emergence allowed the Broncos to part ways with their leading rusher from last season, Ronnie Hillman.

When it does come time for Siemian to put the ball in the air, he will have the luxury of Demaryius Thomas (1,304 receiving yards, and six touchdowns in 2015) and Emmanuel Sanders (1,135 receiving yards, and six touchdowns in 2015) on the outside.

In addition to those weapons around him, Siemian will also be able to lean on one of the league’s best defenses. The Broncos defense ranked first in total defense in 2015, first against the pass and third against the run. Led by Super Bowl MVP Von Miller (11 sacks in 2015), Denver also led the league in sacks (52). This all translated into a mere 18.4 points against per game, which was good for fourth in the NFL.

The defense will be without Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan, who both left via free agency, but the other nine starters are still in place.

Come Thursday, Denver defensive ends Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will look to expose the same offensive tackles they saw in the Super Bowl. However, Cam will have a receiver who demands special attention this time around in Benjamin. The third-year pro will not only be able to challenge the Broncos corners, but will also open up the rest of the field for the likes of Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn.

It is also awfully tough to put your faith in a seventh-round quarterback, who has never started an NFL game, going against a very tough Panther defense. Led by Luke Kuechly, Carolina will sell-out to stop the run, forcing Siemian to put the ball in the air. Carolina forced the most turnovers in the league last season, and will look to do the same on Thursday night against a very inexperienced quarterback.

Although Denver leads the all-time series 4-1, the Panthers defense will take advantage of the situation and put their offense in favorable positions. Cam and the offense will wear the Bronco defense down early on the ground, and will gash them for big yardage late when they’re exhausted from being on the field all night.

Pick: Carolina Panthers (-3).

Photo Credit: Steve Jurvetson (Flickr) CC BY 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0], via Wikimedia Commons.