NFL Betting – Will Saints Get Off Schneid vs Atl?

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3, 53.5 o/u)

When you’ve got an elite quarterback, hope springs eternal in the NFL. That’s why fans of the New Orleans Saints (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) weren’t resigned to a sad fate entering the 2016 season, despite boasting a league-worst defense. Drew Brees hasn’t been able to lead New Orleans to a win yet, though, and now they face the prospect of a second straight 0-3 start when the Atlanta Falcons (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) come to the Superdome on Monday Night Football tomorrow (8:30 PM Eastern).

Brees had a very Breesy outing in Week 1, throwing for 423 yards and four touchdowns against Oakland. You’d think that would be enough to get a W, but the D picked up right where it left off last season, letting the Raiders pile up 35 points and 486 total yards – including a late two-point convert that handed the Saints an agonizing one-point loss (35-34).

Shockingly, the script was completely flipped the next week. The D limited the Giants to just 16 points and no offensive touchdowns, while Brees and the offense were contained (247 passing yards, 41 rushing yards) in a 16-13 setback.

The score belies the still porous play of the defense. Eli Manning went 32/41 for 368 yards on the day, and would have found the end zone if not for a couple drops by his receivers. The Saints also benefited from three Giant turnovers. Sean Payton will like the tenacity he saw from his defense, but don’t take that game as a sign of changing times in New Orleans.

Expect the unit to get back to its generous ways on Monday when Matt Ryan and the Falcons come to town. Ryan seems to have found his mojo after a couple down seasons, sitting first in the league in passing yards through two weeks (355.5 YPG) and leading Atlanta to nearly 30 points per game.

The Falcons, like New Orleans, don’t have the defense to succeed in the long run. The unit cost them in a 31-24 loss to the Bucs in Week 1, and did just enough to get by Oakland, 35-28, in Week 2. Atlanta’s D currently sits 27th in the NFL in total yards.

Everyone was expecting a shootout when New Orleans headed to the Big Apple last week. It failed to materialize. Don’t expect the same offensive shortcomings two weeks in a row, not on the turf at the Superdome. These teams have way too many offensive weapons to be held in check by bottom-feeding defenses.

Between WR Julio Jones (nine receptions, 172 yards, two touchdowns), RBs Devonta Freeman (28 carries, 113 yards, zero touchdowns) and Tevin Coleman (seven receptions, 120 yards, zero touchdowns), and TE Jacob Tamme (eleven receptions, 126 yards, one touchdown), Atlanta should find success on both the ground and through the air.

For New Orleans, look for a pass-heavy attack that capitalizes on the Falcons’ lack of a pass rush, as Brees hits Willie Snead (14 receptions, 226 yards, two touchdowns) and Brandin Cooks (13 receptions, 211 yards, two touchdowns) with regularity.

There isn’t much to separate these teams, talent-wise. Jones gives Atlanta an obvious edge at receiver, but I like Brees at QB over the more inconsistent Ryan. I’ll take the Saints (who are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home versus Atlanta) to cover in what amounts to a must-win for the team.

Pick: Saints -3.

Photo credit: Keith Allison (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].