NFL Division Winners: 2017 Odds to Repeat in the AFC

After Tom Brady vs. Dan Quinn II somehow topped their previous Super Bowl encounter, we enter the dreaded seven-month football-less stretch. We can either use this time to catch-up with family and friends, or begin looking ahead to what the 2017 has in store for us and fantasize about a possible Brady vs. Quinn III. Your presence here tells me which way you’re leaning.

The AFC enjoyed two new division winners in 2016 – Pittsburgh and Kansas City – but New England remained atop the East for the eighth straight season and 13th time in the last 14 years. Houston was also able to defend their division crown in the South. Will either be able to conquer their foes again in 2017? (If you have any argument against the Patriots, please feel free to insert it here.)

With some roster shakeups on the way, here are the odds for each of the four division winners to repeat as champions in 2017, along with the odds each of their division mates has of stealing the throne.

AFC East

Odds the New England Patriots repeat: 1/2

Odds to be dethroned by …

Miami Dolphins: 11/2
New York Jets: 8/1
Buffalo Bills: 13/1

As long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are Patriots, there is no reason to believe New England will lose its stranglehold on the AFC East. The Pats will also likely keep both coordinators – Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia. The continuity will help ensure this team doesn’t suffer any major dips.

The team with the best chance to knock the Pats from their throne is the Miami Dolphins. In his first season as a head coach, Adam Gase certainly exceeded expectations, getting the Dolphins into the playoffs. Though there are a number of holes that need to be addressed on the defensive side of the ball (29th in total defense), specifically the secondary and at linebacker, Gase has constructed an offense that Ryan Tannehill seems very comfortable in. When Miami’s offensive line was healthy, they beat-up most teams in the trenches this year, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. There’s a lot of promise for this franchise going forward, but they still remain more than a few steps behind the Pats.

In spite of recording the sixth-fewest wins in the league, the Jets do have a lot of talent. Their defensive line is arguably the best front in the league, and they have a very dangerous set of players at the skill positions on the offensive side. They don’t have a quarterback, though, or even a serviceable option under center. Finding a quarterback is becoming more urgent each year, as they are wasting the prime years of a handful of their best players.

The Bills are a hot-mess right now, and moving on from Tyrod Taylor only sets them back another step.

AFC North

Odds the Pittsburgh Steelers repeat: 9/5

Odds to be dethroned by …

Cincinnati Bengals: 9/4
Baltimore Ravens: 7/3
Cleveland Browns: 24/1

These odds are assuming that Ben Roethlisberger will be returning for his 14th season. The latter-half of Big Ben’s 13th season was quite shaky, but he’s still the team’s best option. In 2016, the Steelers struggled to find a complementary option for Antonio Brown in the passing game. The return of Martavis Bryant should solve that issue. With a healthy Le’Veon Bell and an improvement or two on the defensive side of the ball (an edge rusher and secondary help, specifically), Pittsburgh will remain the best team in the North.

The Bengals and Ravens each have their own issues holding them back. Cincinnati was out-muscled in the trenches last year – averaging 4.0 yards per carry while allowing 4.4 – and needs to find another receiver to take some of the pressure off A.J. Green. Baltimore lacked any resemblance of a running game (28th), and Joe Flacco is no Aaron Rodgers. Both teams have enough to mask some of shortcomings, but need to fill big holes to overtake the Steelers.

Mark my words, Cleveland will win the AFC North in the next five years. But it won’t come in 2017. With a bevy of early picks in the upcoming draft and an intelligent football mind pacing their sideline, the Browns will eventually break away from their reputation as the laughing stock of the football world. There are just too many holes to fill in one offseason.

AFC South

Odds the Houston Texans repeat: 7/4

Odds to be dethroned by …

Tennessee Titans: 5/2
Indianapolis Colts: 7/2
Jacksonville Jaguars: 7/1

The Houston Texans are a very good football team. The fact that they won nine games with Brock Osweiler and without J.J. Watt tells you how near-complete Houston really is. With even just a serviceable quarterback, the Texans would have no issue winning the South for the third-straight year. But Bill O’Brien’s hand may be forced. Osweiler is owed too much guaranteed money to be cut and they won’t have much cap space to find a better option. It may not matter, though, with the state of the rest of the division.

Neither the Titans nor Colts could defend the pass last season (30th and 27th, respectively), but Tennessee was at least good against the run, only ranking behind the Cowboys. Offensively, Indianapolis possesses the aerial attack that Tennessee wants, while the Titans have the powerful ground game the Colts are in desperate need of. Mike Mularkey’s team needs a lot less than Chuck Pagano’s squad, and the former will have a better opportunity to find the help it needs with the fifth and 18th-overall selections in the 2017 draft. Look for Tennessee to make this division very interesting, while Indianapolis continues to whiff on protecting Andrew Luck.

Is Doug Marrone the coach that can finally morph Blake Bortles into a winning quarterback? Marrone will have a lot of talent to work with on the defensive side of the ball in Jacksonville (sixth in total defense), but it won’t matter if the offense keeps giving up points. In a make-or-break season for Bortles, the fourth-year pro will continue digging his own grave and bury his team with him.

AFC West

Odds the Kansas City Chiefs repeat: 7/3

Odds to be dethroned by …

Denver Broncos: 7/3
Oakland Raiders: 7/3
Los Angeles Chargers: 9/1

It’s hard to argue that this isn’t the best division in football. The West spit out two 12-win teams and another with a winning record and a historically good pass defense. We’ll just forget about the Chargers gifting the Browns their only win of the season.

This season accounted for the first time Denver didn’t capture the division since 2010, but I don’t like Kansas City’s odds of managing that kind of reign. The Chiefs may lose Eric Berry in free agency and Jamaal Charles’ career may be finished. Compounding the issue, Andy Reid’s squad doesn’t have much of a pass-rush beyond Justin Houston and they seem very unsure of how far Alex Smith can take them. Nonetheless, the Chiefs are a very good football team, having won 43 games in four seasons under Reid. They just may have to deal with a lot of change this coming season, and would be wise to hire someone to tell Reid when to use timeouts.

The Raiders may not have been the best all-around team in the division last year, but they certainly had the best offense (seventh in scoring). Derek Carr and company should continue to grow with another year of experience, but the loss of offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave may prove costly. Oakland can not break away from the logjam atop the division because I don’t believe what they did last season is sustainable. The Raiders came out on the right side of too many close games and their offense is forced to play at such a high-level to atone for their defensive woes (26th in total defense).

One thing that is sustainable is Denver’s top-ranked pass defense. But they will need to acquire some help up the middle of their defense. Opposing teams were often able to avoid dealing with Von Miller by just pounding the ball down the throat of the 28th-ranked Broncos run defense. Their biggest concern will be finding some offensive linemen who are capable of blocking anyone, though. The offense had no running game and Trevor Siemian rarely had a clean pocket to throw from. Denver’s brand new coaching staff will have a lot of pressure on them to return this talented roster to the playoffs.

(Photo Credit: Andrew Campbell (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/])