NFL Odds – A Fool’s Frenzy Looms

Are you an NFL team in need of help at running back? Perhaps you need an elite pass rusher? Or are you just unhappy with your offensive line situation? All these ailments and more could be cured with a simple dose of: NFL free agency!

Since 1993, free agency has allowed draft-challenged franchises to sign assets other teams don’t want, giving disgruntled fans the illusion that they are going to be better.

This year, there are plenty of opportunities for teams to overpay players and get their fanbases’ hopes up. In fact, this may be one of the most loaded free agency crops in the league’s history.

If you need a pass rusher, Chris Long, Mario Williams, Charles Johnson, Tamba Hali, and Jason Pierre-Paul are just some of the names available.

For running backs, simply pick what kind your team needs most. A grizzled vet who can do a little bit of everything? Try an Arian Foster or Matt Forte. Want a bruiser with plenty of miles left on his legs? Chris Ivory or Alfred Morris. Then there’s always the electric play-making of a Doug Martin or Lamar Miller.

This truly is a class littered with quick fixes. Center Alex Mack, left tackle Russell Okung, safety Eric Weddle, and corner back Sean Smith all must look like relative all-stars for a lot of teams, which means talking heads will soon be anointing certain teams the “winners of free agency” again. And those teams will, more than likely, go on to disappoint, following in the footsteps of previous free agency winners like the 2015 Dolphins, the 2014 Buccaneers, and the 2011 Eagles.

The feeding frenzy won’t start until March 9 (4:00 PM Eastern), but we thought we’d set the odds on how things will shake out this offseason for some of the league’s bigger FA names. (Keep in mind, these are not the best players available. But they are folks you’ve heard of.) We wrap with a few other offseason props, like odds on the league’s Tom Brady appeal and how many players are going to be arrested.

Will the optimism never cease?!

2016 NFL Free Agency Odds

• in a broadcast booth/studio: 4/1
• a coach in the NFL: 9/1
• on the Rams’ roster: 9/1
• on the Texans’ roster: 19/1
• on the Broncos’ roster: 99/1
• on the roster of any other NFL team: 6/1
• None of the above: 3/2

Manning is talking like he still wants to play, but other reports suggest he’s going to announce his retirement imminently. Even if he does want to keep going, is he willing to be a back-up on a contender or the starter in an anemic offense like the Rams’? The smart money’s on retirement. Commentating and coaching are both natural fits down the road, but don’t bank on either for Week 1.

Odds that Kirk Cousins will … 

• sign Washington’s one-year, $19 million offer this offseason: 1/20
• sign a multi-year contract with Washington: 40/1
• sign a multi-year contract with another team: 40/1

By using their non-exclusive franchise tag on Cousins, Washington has put the QB in line for a massive pay raise. He still has the chance to negotiate with other teams, but if he signs elsewhere, the signing team would have to give up two first-round picks. Giving Cousins a multi-year, elite-money deal would be a big enough gamble, on its own. No team is going to roll those dice and give up two first-rounders at the same time. (If one does *cough cough Cleveland* Washington would have the chance to match.)

Odds that, on Week 1 of the 2016 season, Johnny Manziel will be …

• in jail or rehab: 5/1
• on the roster of a CFL team: 8/1
• on the roster of an Arena Football team: 19/1
• on the Cowboys’ roster: 19/1
• on the Browns’ roster: 99/1
• on the roster of any other NFL team: 15/1
• None of the Above: 3/2

Would you sign this guy when his stats look like this? I wouldn’t. 

Odds that, on Week 1 of the 2016 season, Robert Griffin III will …

• be on the Texans’ roster: 7/2
• be on the Cowboys’ roster: 9/2
• be on the Rams’ roster: 6/1
• be on the Browns’ roster: 11/1
• be on the Redskins’ roster: 50/1
• be on the roster of any other NFL team: 2/1
• not be on an NFL Roster: 19/1

Would you take a chance on the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year? I would, if the price was right. And it will be for one QB-needy team. 

Odds that, on Week 1 of the 2016 season, Greg Hardy will …

• be on the Panthers’ roster: 5/1
• be on the Browns’ roster: 7/1
• be on the Cowboys’ roster: 9/1
• be on the Giants’ roster: 12/1
• be on the Falcons’ roster: 12/1
• be on the roster of any other NFL team: 4/1
• not be on an NFL Roster: 5/2

Over/under on the number of snaps for Colin Kaepernick with the 49ers during 2016 season: 0.5 o/u

Kaepernick wants out of San Fran, and even if he doesn’t get out, he’d still have to get into a game to hit the over. According to Andy Benoit, Kaep is only asking for a trade because the “writing’s on the wall” that he won’t be the starter in Chip Kelly’s new 49er offense. I guess Chip’s a Blaine Gabbert kinda guy!

Over/under on the number of starts for Robert Griffin III during the 2016 season: 1 o/u

Yes, some needy team is probably going to sign RGIII. That doesn’t mean they’ll be signing him as their starter. He’d still have to impress in camp (relatively speaking) and make it to September in one piece to wind up as a Week 1 starter. If he’s a backup, he’ll have to hope for some truly Ryan Mallett-esque play from the starter or an injury. 

Odds Calvin Johnson will be on the field for at least one snap for any NFL team in Week 1 of the 2016 season: 2/3

Odds on which free agent quarterback will sign the biggest contract (annual average) with his current team:

• Kirk Cousins: 2/3
• Brock Osweiler: 4/1
• Ryan Fitzpatrick: 9/1
• Sam Bradford: 12/1
• FIELD: 20/1

Cousins is a safe bet with a near-$20 million, one-year offer on the table from Washington. That number should go down if he negotiates a longer term deal, but his negotiations were made a lot easier by the deal Bradford inked. There is no way Cousins should accept a deal that pays him less annually than Bradford, who sucks. Meanwhile, Chase Daniels is the only QB in the “field” category that could make decent money, and he is even less proven than Osweiler.

Over/under on how many UFAs will sign contracts worth at least $10 million per year: 7.5 o/u

QB contracts are out of control, so Fitzy and Osweiler might both break that number. But at every other position, this is a buyer’s market. Not only is free agency loaded with defensive talent, but so is this year’s draft. There’s no reason for NFL teams to offer Mario Williams an outrageous contract when there are several other comparable options. Of course, just because teams shouldn’t offer a ton, doesn’t mean a few gung-ho franchises won’t. 

Over/under on the average annual value of Andrew Luck’s new contract (if he re-signs with the Colts): $21.9 million o/u

You can probably count on Hardy getting arrested again before the piece-of-human-rubbish shuffles off his mortal coil once and for all. But I bet he walks the straight and narrow until someone signs him. Then, when his actions have the highest potential to detrimentally impact those around him, Hardy will do what Hardy does. That would be the Hardy thing to do. 

Miscellaneous NFL Offseason Odds:

Odds the NFL successfully appeals the overturning of Tom Brady’s suspension: 7/2

Odds on who the Broncos will host in the 2016 season opener:

• Panthers: 5/2
• Patriots: 5/2
• Chiefs: 4/1
• Raiders: 8/1
• Colts: 12/1
• Falcons: 20/1
• Chargers: 28/1
• Texans: 35/1

Odds any of the top-four picks (Titans, Browns, Chargers, Cowboys) in the 2016 draft are traded before the first round ends: 5/4

What used to be a rare occurrence is becoming more prevalent. Three of the last four drafts have featured teams inside the top-five trading picks. 

Over/under on how many NFL players will be arrested between the start of the league year (12:00 a.m. ET, March 9) and the start of the 2016 draft (8:00 p.m. ET, April 28): 5.5

Based on numbers from the USA Today’s database, the league has averaged 2.7 arrests per month since last February. That should make the under the smart play for the roughly seven-week period at issue. However, March has been a particularly trying time for NFLers; seven were arrested in March 2015, and six were put in cuffs in March 2014.

(Featured photo credit: AJ Guel (flickr) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)