NFL Odds – Rookie of the Year Favorites

Sure, the NFL Draft’s biggest moments over the weekend came mostly from the shattering of dreams of a few 20-year-old men. But if that isn’t “excitement,” well Roger Goodell doesn’t know what is. (Certainly not a Cardinals-Patriots game that has Tom Brady in the lineup.)

A few late leaks right before the draft hurt the stock of some of college’s biggest prospects, creating worthy following-up drama to the crazy pre-draft trades. The biggest story was the bizarre saga of Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil, who took a tumble thanks to the release of an untimely photo of the prospect smoking weed. (You know that substance we’re all pretty much in agreement is harmless, but the NFL still views through the eyes of a Ninja Turtles’ PSA?)

Tunsil’s fall in the draft likely cost him upwards of $10 million in salary and signing bonuses, but at least he remained in the first round. A pair of first-round linebackers fell into the second round thanks to medical scares: Reggie Ragland was found to have an enlarged aorta, while the possibility of Myles Jack needing microfracture surgery led to his downfall.

The saddest part about Jack’s situation? It was later revealed that he wouldn’t actually need surgery this offseason.

While draft weekend may not have gone as planned for those players, they have their entire careers to prove doubters wrong. And what better way to start that career than winning Rookie of the Year next season?

Tunsil will be a long-shot to claim the hardware, simply because voters tend to side with the sexier offensive positions. “Tend to” is actually an understatement; an offensive lineman has never won Offensive Rookie of Year. Jack has a much better shot at Defensive Rookie of the Year – if he can stay healthy – as linebackers have claimed half of the DROY awards.

So who among this new crop of draftees is poised to make a big impact in the NFL right away? Here are our odds for the NFL’s two Rookie of the Year trophies.

Odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year:

• Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Dallas Cowboys): 7/2
• Jared Goff (QB, Los Angeles Rams): 7/1
• Will Fuller (WR, Houston Texans): 9/1
• Corey Coleman (WR, Cleveland Browns): 11/1
• Laquon Treadwell (WR, Minnesota Vikings): 12/1
• Paxton Lynch (QB, Denver Broncos): 12/1
• Henry Hunter (TE, San Diego Chargers): 18/1
• Michael Thomas (WR, New Orleans Saints): 18/1
• Josh Doctson (WR, Washington Redskins): 20/1
• Jordan Howard (RB, Chicago Bears): 23/1

Elliott is the clear favorite; he’s the presumptive number one back for Dallas and is guaranteed a ton of touches. He has the added benefit of running behind a Cowboys line that made Darren McFadden look competent last season.

Goff should be right their with him, but the tools he has around him in Los Angeles don’t exactly inspire confidence. Outside of last season’s OROY, Todd Gurley, the Rams lack an offensive threat. If Goff is limited to hand-offs, it’ll be hard to make an impression on voters.

If you’re looking for a challenger to Elliott, it will likely come in the form of a pass catcher. A few of this draft’s talents will be looked upon immediately to be a number-one option (Coleman, Treadwell) while others will complement established threats (Fuller, Doctson). History has shown us both situations can yield a winner, but, in total, just nine wide receivers have won the award.

Odds to win Defensive Rookie of the Year:

• Joey Bosa (DE, San Diego Chargers): 5/1
• Leonard Floyd (LB, Chicago Bears): 13/2
• DeForest Buckner (DE, San Francisco 49ers): 7/1
• Jalen Ramsey (CB, Jacksonville Jaguars): 9/1
• Shaq Lawson (DE, Buffalo Bills): 9/1
• Vernon Hargreaves (CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers): 12/1
• Reggie Ragland (LB, Buffalo Bills): 16/1
• Myles Jack (LB, Jacksonville Jaguars): 16/1
• Kevin Dodd (LB, Tennessee Titans): 20/1
• Darron Lee (LB, New York Jets): 20/1

Marcus Peters ended a 16-year drought for defensive backs by winning DROY last season; but in order to do so, Peters had to lead the NFL in interceptions. That’s an unlikely feat for any of this draft’s corners, so once again the favorites mostly come from the front-seven. The last nine winners have also been first-round selections.

Bosa and Buckner are the two best edge rushers, but they’ll be going to teams with weak pass rushes; they’ll be the focus for opposing offenses. That could be good news for the Floyds and Lawsons of the world, who will at least have decent pieces around them to alleviate the pressure.

(Photo Credit: MGoBlog (Originally uploaded to Flickr)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/])