NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 1

• NFL Week 1 is underway
• In my NFL Week 1 picks, I am targeting three underdogs to cover the spread
• See below for my NFL picks against the spread for Sunday, September 7

We are just a few days from our first NFL Sunday of the 2025 season. We have made it!

There are a lot of question marks heading into the season, but we will learn a lot after this weekend. After months of speculation, these teams will finally get on the gridiron and play for real.

There are plenty of NFL Week 1 betting trends that I am targeting in my ATS picks for Sunday.

Keep reading for all my NFL Week 18 picks against the spread.

NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

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ATS Pick #1: Dolphins +1.5 vs Colts

The Indianapolis Colts are 0-9-1 straight up and 1-8-1 against the spread in Week 1 over the last ten years. They have not won a Week 1 game in ten years, and I predict that that trend will continue on Sunday.

Daniel Jones won the starting quarterback job in Indianapolis, and while I believe that was the right move, I still think he will struggle against the Dolphins.

Miami has a lot of question marks of their own heading into this year, but they match up well against the Colts. Indianapolis’s offensive line lost two starters to free agency, and, even though Tua Tagovailoa has not been the best on the road, he is still in a dome.

Tua has been successful in Week 1s, going 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread.

The Dolphins are healthy, and I trust their offense to score enough points in a dome after months of preparation for this game. Miami starts the year 1-0.

• Dolphins +1.5 (-120)

ATS Pick #2: Browns +5.5 vs Bengals

My next NFL pick against the spread is a gross one, but stay with me.

The Browns have had Joe Burrow’s number, and the Bengals have been known to start slow. They lost to the Patriots as 8.5-point favorites to start the season last year. To combat that, the Bengals did play their starters in preseason, but I am not sold that this will be a blowout.

What stood out to me watching them in the preseason was that their defense will be similar to last year’s. Even if they did not want to show off their new defense in the games, they were getting pushed around, and it will take time for the unit to gel. I am not expecting big things from their defense this season, and I am especially not expecting them to have success in Week 1 of the season.

Joe Flacco is the starting quarterback for the Browns, and he loves to throw the ball down the field. It would not surprise me if they connect on a big play or two against this defense. Their run game should also see success.

Cleveland still has a good defense after re-signing Myles Garrett, and they know this team well.

Divisional home underdogs are 18-4 against the spread since 2012. This game will not be pretty, but 5.5 is too many points for a divisional rival at home.

• NFL Week 1 Pick: Browns +5.5 (-110)

ATS Pick #3: Giants +6.5 vs Commanders

I am betting on another divisional underdog and picking the Giants to cover the spread against the Commanders.

The two games played between these teams were decided by three points and by five points. The Commanders may have gotten better this year, but so did the Giants.

Russell Wilson is an improvement over Daniel Jones and will be able to manage this offense. The Giants also have a very impressive defensive line that could cause fits for Washington’s offense.

The Commanders overperformed last year, coming out of nowhere. I still believe they will be a good team, but I see them taking a step back. Jayden Daniels is at risk of the sophomore slump, and their defense has some new faces that will take a while to get going.

If the Giants pass rush can get after Daniels, this game will be a lot closer than many are predicting. Underdogs of 6.5 points or more in Week 1 are 49-27 (64.5%) against the spread since 2006. I do not love that my betting card features the Browns and the Giants, but in this case, 6.5 is too many points for a divisional team that got better and did not lose by that number in either head-to-head matchup last year.

• NFL Week 1 Pick: Giants +6.5 (-120)