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Bet Which NFL Rookie Will Be the First to Score a Touchdown in 2019

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

May 2, 2019 · 9:42 AM PDT

Miles Sanders
The Eagles' Miles Sanders is considered the third best bet to score a touchdown first among NFL rookies. Photo By @PHLEaglesNation (Twitter).
  • You can bet on which NFL rookie will score a touchdown first in 2019
  • Running backs Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery have the shortest odds, followed by Miles Sanders
  • Who’s the best bet?

Josh Jacobs is going to be the most overvalued player in your fantasy draft this season. The expectations are sky-high for the Raiders shiny new toy, and he’s one of the co-favorites to be the first rookie to score a touchdown in 2019 along with David Montgomery.

First NFL Rookie to Score a TD (By Minute)

Player Odds
Josh Jacobs +200
David Montgomery +200
Miles Sanders +300
Marquise Brown +500
TJ Hockenson +700
DK Metcalf +800
N’Keal Harry +800
Noah Fant +900
Deebo Samuel +900
Mecole Hardman +900
Parris Campbell +1000
JJ Arcega-Whiteside +1000
Irv Smith Jr. +2000

Odds taken May 1, 2019.

It’s important to note that this prop’s outcome isn’t determined by real-time, but rather how many minutes it takes a player to score within his own team’s game. It’s no surprise that running backs occupy the top three positions on the odds board. But is there reason to be concerned about Jacobs’ and Montgomery’s playing time?

Fade the Top Two

When Isaiah Crowell tore his achilles this week, it looked like Jacobs was in line for a big workload next season, but Oakland had other plans. They quickly re-signed Doug Martin and now it looks like another former Raider could be back in the mix.

Jacobs was already expected to lose passing down work to Jalen Richard, and if Martin and potentially Lynch are thrown back into the mix, the Raiders’ backfield will be extremely crowded.

Jacobs could find himself trapped in a timeshare to start the season, just like he was at Bama, which drastically reduces his touchdown equity.

Montgomery meanwhile, is going to a Bears team who smartly schemes against its opponents weakness, which means his volume will greatly vary from week-to-week.

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As good as he projects on paper, if Matt Nagy identifies a hole in the opposing team’s pass defense in Week 1, you can bet you’ll see a heavy dose of Tarik Cohen in the backfield instead.

Sanders is a Steal

The next man on the board is Miles Sanders who landed in an ideal spot in Philadelphia. The Eagles made him their highest-drafted running back in a decade, so you know they’re extremely high on him and for good reason.

He’s an athletic freak, who wowed at the combine and actually finished with more rushing yards in his final year at Penn State than Saquon Barkley had in his senior year.

He has excellent size and speed and could step in right away as the Eagles feature back given the lack of talent they have at that position.

With a clear path to substantial playing time, and a dynamic offense in front of him, Sanders is my favorite rookie to score first at +300.

Value Picks

  1. Mecole Hardman (+900): He brings 4.33 speed to Kansas City and is an ideal replacement for Tyreek Hill. He can take the top off defenses and is extremely dangerous in the return game.
  2. Parris Campbell (+1000): He racked up 90 catches for 1,063 yards and 12 TDs in his final season at Ohio State. He should benefit from teams focusing more heavily on the Colts primary weapons.

 

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