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NFL Week 10 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets and Underdogs Showing Value

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Nov 13, 2021 · 7:11 AM PST

Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill
Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) is sacked by New Orleans Saints outside linebacker A.J. Klein (53) in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 22, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/James Kenney)
  • Will the Titans follow in the line of other AFC favorites and get upset by the Saints?
  • Can the Panthers offense finally emerge without Sam Darnold?
  • Last week’s picks went 1-2, costing us 0.68 units. At midseason, our record stands at 12-12 and we’re up 10.59 units

Just as we got finished hailing Week 8 as the wildest week of NFL action this season, Week 9 came off the top rope and showed us what true madness is. Underdogs went 7-7 straight up, including 10- and 16-point upsets by the Broncos and Jaguars! However, we were unable to join in on the winning fun last week, after Tony Corrente and his crew completely jobbed Chicago on Monday Night.

If you’re looking to chase some more massive upsets among the NFL’s Week 10 odds, there’s six more favorites of at least eight points this Sunday. One of those games jumped out to me as a potential special upset but first we’ll start  with a few smaller plays.

NFL Week 10 Upset Picks

Matchup Spread Moneyline Pick Units
Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots CLE -2.5 +120 Browns 1
New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans TEN -2.5 +128 Saints 1
Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals CAR -10.5 +350 Panthers 1

Odds as of November 12th at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Pats Too Full of Themselves

In an important clash for the AFC’s Wild Cards, the New England Patriots are giving 2.5 points to the visiting Cleveland Browns.

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Belief in this Patriots team is growing stronger by the week, but this 5-4 team hasn’t exactly faced the stiffest competition, topping Davis Mills, Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson twice. So while Mac Jones has been the best of the rookie QBs so far, this Patriots offense still isn’t operating at a high level.

Both teams could be without their starting running backs in this one, as Nick Chubb has been ruled out for Cleveland while both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Steveneson are questionable for the Patriots.

We’ve seen the Browns run game can still roll when they turn to D’Ernest Johnson. I’m a little less optimistic for New England against a Cleveland defense that was already stout against the run and is getting improved performances from their secondary now that they’re getting healthy.

Even though Bill Belichick might be able to rattle Baker Mayfield a bit, I’m not expecting his offense to show out any better. Take the Browns here.

Saints Come Marchin In

The Tennessee Titans are tops in AFC after a dominant defensive performance in LA. But as we’ve see this year, nobody stays atop that conference for long. They’ll try and hold that spot for one more week when the New Orleans Saints come to town as 2.5 point underdogs.

The Ravens, Bengals and Bills have all held the top spot in the AFC in previous weeks and were promptly upset. Clearly there’s not as much buy-in on the Titans or they’d be getting more than a field goal at home against a 5-3 Saints team on its third string QB.

Since 2019, the Saints have been an astonishingly great underdog bet, going 8-2 straight up when getting points. Tennessee is just 8-6 as a home favorite over that same stretch.

The Titans D stunned a lot of people on Sunday night, when their interior defensive line destroyed the high powered Rams offense. But the Saints have far more talent along the offensive line and are a little more reliant on the ground game, even with Alvin Kamara potentially out.

Meanwhile, the Titans offense didn’t actually do much in their first game without Derrick Henry, failing to top 200 yards. Against a Saints D that ranks among the best in the league, they’ll be in tough to make a mark here as well.

It’s also worth noting we’ve been right all three times we’ve picked Titans games this year. Let’s take the Saints to make magic as an underdog again.

Will Panthers Improve By Subtracting Sam?

Superman has returned! After weeks of truly terrible quarterbacking has sunk the Carolina Panthers, Cam Newton has re-signed with his old team to replace an injured Sam Darnold. However, it’ll be P.J. Walker making his second start on Sunday for Carolina, thus they’re 10.5-point underdogs to the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cards may also be turning to their backup QB once again, as Kyler Murray’s status for Week 10 remains up in the air.

Colt McCoy played well against the 49ers reeling defense, but he was also aided by Kliff Kingsbury emptying his bag of tricks. The Panthers defense is a much more sound unit and with some film of McCoy running this offense, I don’t think they’ll get caught off guard like San Francisco.

Meanwhile, Carolina’s struggling offense will have more of an element of surprise, as Walker has only come in for mop-up duty this year. With a week of practice as the number one, surely Matt Rhule’s offense can incorporate some different looks and make use of his mobility as they transition to an attack that’s better suited for Newton. Even if Walker can just avoid throwing TDs to the other team, it would be a marked improvement.

Throw in Christian McCaffrey getting healthier in his second week back from injury and the Panthers should at least be able to outperform the paltry 9. 3 points per game they’ve been averaging over the last three weeks. And even if Murray is able to go, we saw last year how the offense just isn’t the same when he’s hobbled.

Carolina was able to come into Arizona last season and leave with a win, even before Murray’s injury. And in a screwy NFL season where fans are constantly asking which teams are good, this game could be another wrench in the power rankings.

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