Upcoming Match-ups

2021 NFL Conference Championships Odds, Lines, and Picks for AFC and NFC Title Games

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in NFL Football

Jan 19, 2021 · 8:26 AM PST

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws the ball into the stands while being cheered on by Chiefs center Austin Reiter (62) and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) after scoring against the Cleveland Browns during the NFL divisional round football game, Sunday, Jan. 17, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
  • This season’s Super Bowl matchup will be determined this weekend in battles for the NFC and AFC conference titles
  • The Green Bay Packers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as favorites to win the NFC crown, while the Kansas City Chiefs look to repeat as AFC champions in their date with the Buffalo Bills
  • We’ve got you covered with all the trends ahead of this weekend’s NFL conference championship matchups

Super Bowl berths will be on the line this weekend as the NFL’s conference champions are determined. Sunday’s action begins at Green Bay’s Lambeau Field where the top-seeded Packers host the No. 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC championship game as 3.5-point home favorites. Later on Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to claim the right to defend their Super Bowl title. Kansas City battles the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills at Arrowhead Stadium as slim 3-point home favorites in the AFC championship game.

Here’s a look at where the NFL conference championship odds stand, and tips on the best available midweek bets for each of these contests.

NFL Conference Championship Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-108) +162 O 50.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-112) -194 U 50.5 (-110)
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Buffalo Bills +3 (-122) +120 O 53 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -3 (+100) -142 U 53 (-110)

Odds taken at Fanduel Jan. 19

Buccaneers vs Packers

Kickoff Time: Sunday at 3:05 pm EST

Notable Betting Line Changes: The betting line for Sunday’s NFC championship game at Lambeau Field has remained virtually unchanged. It opened with the hometown Packers pegged as narrow 3.5-point chalk. Secondly, the point spread has held steady since its opening, while the point total has dipped slightly to 50.5 since opening at 51.

Analysis: The Packers return to the NFC championship game for a second straight year after. This, after disposing of the defense-first Los Angeles Rams this past weekend with a 32-18 victory. In addition to riding a seven-game SU win streak, Green Bay is unbeaten ATS in its past three, and 5-1 ATS in six home dates. The Packers averaged an NFL-best 31.8 points per game this season. Aaron Rodgers has connected on a personal-best 48 TD passes during the regular season. In addition, Rodgers has added two scoring tosses and a TD run in last weekend’s victory over the Rams.

The Buccaneers ride a season-best six-game SU win streak, capped by last weekend’s 30-20 upset win in New Orleans. QB Tom Brady has tossed 24 total TD passes over the past nine games. Brady cashed in last weekend on the opportunities provided by the Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs converted three of four Saints turnovers into touchdowns. Tampa Bay turned in arguably its strongest performance of the regular season in a 38-10 win as 2.5-point underdogs back in Week 6. The Buccaneers defense effectively shut down Rodgers, limiting him to just 160 passing yards and no scores against two picks.

Bucs vs Packers Prediction

The Bucs pass defense demonstrated last weekend that they remain a threat. However, Rodgers and the Packers have been nearly unstoppable on home turf of late. In addition to finding the end zone 19 total times in seven outings, Rodgers had little difficulty overcoming the vaunted Rams defense in last week’s win, connecting on two scores. Rodgers’ 296 passing yards ended a six-game run during which the LA defense limited opposing passers to fewer than 200 yards and just eight total TDs.

The Bucs are now set to battle one of the few legitimate top-flight opponents they have faced this season. Look for the Packers to extend their home win streak over Tampa Bay to three games while easily covering.

The Pick: Packers -3.5 (-115)

Bills vs Chiefs

Kickoff Time: Sunday at 6:40 pm EST

Notable Betting Line Changes: The betting line has seen little movement ahead of Sunday night’s clash at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have held steady as 3-point chalk, but the moneyline odds backing that spread have clearly tilted in the Bills’ favor. Buffalo is now listed as a short -122 bet to cover. Patrick Mahomes’ status is uncertain, and in addition to a mix of snow and rain in the weather forecast for Sunday, the point total has dipped slightly, from 54 to 53.

Analysis: Mahomes was forced to leave last weekend’s narrow 22-17 win over Cleveland. Mahomes reportedly remains in concussion protocol. Backup Chad Henne turned in a steady performance in relief vs the Browns. But, Henne cannot be expected to fill the void left by Mahomes, particularly against a ferocious Bills defense. Also of concern is the Chiefs’ recent dismal betting performance. Kansas City is winless ATS in nine straight outings, and 1-6 ATS in its past seven home dates, with their lone victory coming against the New York Jets. That slide is driven by a Chiefs offense that has averaged just 20.5 points over their past four home dates.

The Bills, however, have enjoyed outstanding performances on both sides of the ball. A prolific offense led by QB Josh Allen has been key to Buffalo’s current eight-game SU win streak. However, it was a sensational defensive effort that was the difference in a 17-3 victory over the Baltimore Ravens last weekend.

Bills vs Chiefs Prediction

The Bills have struggled in recent dates with Kansas City, averaging just 16.6 points per game during a 1-4 SU run. Buffalo’s lengthy track record of futility has also led to them being consistently underestimated at the sportsbooks, where they currently ride a 9-1 ATS run. Even with Mahomes in the mix, the Bills must be taken seriously as 3-point underdogs. However, if Mahomes is declared fit to play, the Chiefs will likely enjoy a boost at the sportsbooks. In conclusion, whether you get in now, or wait until later in the week, Buffalo provides enormous value against a Chiefs squad that has not lived up to the betting hype.

The Pick: Bills +3 (-122)

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