NFL Week 15 Parlay Picks: BEST Bets to Win Big This Sunday

With NFL bye weeks now a thing of the past, all 16 teams are in action in Week 15, with 14 games being played on Sunday. This means Sunday brings the most NFL betting markets sportsbooks have had to release and monitor since Week 4 – though there were no byes in Week 13, Sunday only contained 11 games due to Thanksgiving. With so many extra markets to monitor, there are more opportunities to catch some bad lines.

I believe I have found four of them! I don’t believe sportsbooks have adjusted well enough to the cold weather expected in some of Week 15’s games, specifically the Ravens vs Bengals matchup in Cincinnati, and haven’t caught up with some growing usage trends in certain players. I am parlaying these four NFL picks to form my favorite parlay for Week 15.

Get the four NFL picks, where you can find the best odds for the parlay, the best odds for each leg if you want to bet it as a single, and my analysis on each pick below.

Week 15 NFL Parlay

My best Week 15 NFL parlay includes four legs and each one is an alternate line (or milestone, if you prefer) of a player prop. The best odds available for the parlay are +3129 at bet365.

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Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose or a First Bet Safety Net Up to $1,000!

Minimum $10 deposit required. Minimum odds -500 of greater. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. RG Line: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL OR TEXT 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ/CO/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ only (18+ KY). Must be present in AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA (select parishes)/MD/NC/NJ/OH/PA/TN/VA

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This means a $10 wager would stand to win $312.90. I also bet each leg as a single, where I only need to hit two of them to be profitable, thanks to the plus-odds.

Keep reading below for my data-backed justification on why I like each of the four legs in the Sunday parlay.

*The +120 odds on 40+ receiving yards for Tyler Warren were not the best available, but these are the odds at bet365, where you will find the best odds for the entire parlay.

Chris Rodriguez Is Primed to Breakout Against the Giants

To this point in the season, Chris Rodriguez’s best game of the season saw him rush for 79 yards. He has only totaled 60+ yards in two of 11 games. Though, he was not playing much of a role in the Washington backfield through the first half of the season. That has changed with Jacory Croskey-Merritt struggling, though, and I believe Rodriguez is primed to breakout in Week 15.

The first reason I like Rodriguez on Sunday is the fact that Jayden Daniels is not playing. The Commanders average 136.9 rushing yards per game in Daniels’ seven starts this season versus 136 in Marcus Mariota’s six starts. So, it’s pretty neutral between the two. However, the split of the rushing yards by position group is quite different based on which QB is under center.

Rushing Yards Per Game by Position Based on QB

Simply put, Daniels runs more than Mariota, and, therefore, running backs average nearly seven yards more per game when Mariota is under center. In fact, two of Washington’s top three rushing performances this season have come in Mariota starts – 201 yards against the Raiders in Week 3 and 172 yards against the Dolphins in Week 11.

Rodriguez averages 12.1 more rushing yards per game with Mariota under center. Also, since Week 9, Rodriguez is averaging 50.5 rushing yards per game, and he has seen double-digit rushing attempts in each of the last three weeks, along with four of the last five. C-Rod has taken over the backfield across these five games, playing 40.1% of Washington’s offensive snaps, handling 35.5% of their rushing attempts, and accounting for 37.6% of their rushing yards – compared to 28.7% of snaps, 28.3% of rushes, and 22% of rushing yards for JCM.

What’s even more encouraging is that Rodriguez has seen this type of improvement in his rushing outputs while also dealing with some of the league’s best run defenses:

• Week 9: 12 rushing attempts for 65 yards vs Seahawks (4th-best vs run)
• Week 10: 6 rushing attempts for 16 yards vs Lions (10th)
• Week 13: 11 rushing attempts for 41 yards vs Broncos (2nd)

In Weeks 11 and 14, Rodriguez averaged 5.2+ yards per attempt while totaling 79 and 52 yards, respectively, against the 25th and 22nd ranked run defenses. The Giants rank 31st against the run and allow 22.3 more rushing yards per game than the worst defense Rodriguez has faced this season. This is the biggest reason I like the third-year pro to get loose on Sunday.

On top of all that, the weather is calling for freezing temperatures with 10-15mph winds. I like the Commanders to lean on Rodriguez’s physical running style in the cold conditions, and just pound the ball down New York’s throat.

• Pick: Chris Rodriguez 60+ Rushing Yards (+135 at bet365)

Why I Love Derrick Henry vs Bengals in Week 15

The forecast is calling for temperatures between 11-13 degrees in Cincinnati throughout the game – pretty damn cold. Derrick Henry was brought to Baltimore to help them win these types of games, and they have utilized him appropriately in frigid temperatures.

Derrick Henry Game Logs as a Raven When Weather is Freezing

In the three games Henry has played as a raven in freezing temps, he has rushed for at least 100 yards in two of them, while averaging 136 rushing yards on 20.7 carries per game.

Not only do I believe Baltimore will make a real effort to get Henry the ball early and often, but I also don’t believe we will see Joe Burrow able to run the score up the way he did on Thanksgiving. Henry only saw ten rushing attempts in that game, but still averaged 6.0 yards per carry, thanks to the Ravens facing a negative game script.

Baltimore still rushed for 123 yards against the Bengals in that Week 13 game. The Bengals also just gave up 183 rushing yards to the Bills last week in freezing temperatures. In fact, no team has given up more rushing yards this season than Cincinnati (155.5 per game) and they’re 31st in yards allowed per carry (5.18).

Though Henry has only recorded 100+ rushing yards in four of 13 games this season, I am very confident things will change with the weather – not to mention, it’s clear Lamar Jackson needs to pass off some of the load.

• Pick: Derrick Henry 100+ Rushing Yards (+145 at bet365)

Chuba Hubbard Rushing Yards Presents Plenty of Value vs Saints

Rico Dowdle was one of the hottest players in the league from Weeks 5-9. However, he has not been the same over the second half of the season, and I believe Chuba Hubbard just reclaimed a significant role in the backfield thanks to his performance in Week 13.

Rico Dowdle Rushing Splits

The Panthers’ last game came against a good Rams defense, and Dowdle struggled, only totaling 58 yards on 18 rushing attempts (3.22 YPC). Hubbard, on the other hand, took his 17 carries for 83 yards (4.88 YPC) and ended up playing 59.4% of Carolina’s offensive snaps – his highest snap % since Week 3.

Hubbard only saw three carries in Carolina’s first meeting with the Saints back in Week 10, and he managed 14 yards. Dowdle was given 18 rushing attempts that he only turned into 53 yards in that game.

New Orleans’ run defense was pretty decent to start the season – but that has not been the case since Week 7. In their last seven games, they have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in five of them, and are allowing an average of 145.4 rushing yards per game (5th-most). That’s an uptick of 41.4 rushing yards allowed per game versus the first six weeks.

I like Hubbard to take advantage of the opportunity he will be presented in Week 15.

• Pick: Chuba Hubbard 50+ Rushing Yards (+155 at bet365)

Analyzing Tyler Warren vs Seahawks

I want to be very clear that this pick does not suggest I believe Philip Rivers, who has not played a game since 2020 and is 44 years old, will step back under center and immediately have success. I just think Tyler Warren’s over/under for receiving yards is set too low.

Warren has recorded at least 40 receiving yards in 9 of 13 games this season, and he averages 53.8 receiving yards per game.

While two of the four misses have come in his last two games, it should be noted that:

1. Riley Leonard had to take over under center for Daniel Jones after just 16 snaps last week against the Jaguars, and
2. The week prior was against a very good Texans defense, who allows the fourth-fewest yards to tight ends.

Throughout Rivers’ career, he has targeted tight ends on 23.3% of his pass attempts, which is 2.3% higher than the NFL average over the span of his career (2006-2020). At 44 years old now, I think he will continue to prioritize taking some quick throws over the middle of the field, especially against a Seahawks defense that allows 71.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the second-most in the NFL.

With how good the Seahawks defense is against the run, I also expect Rivers to be forced to throw the ball a little more than Shane Steichen would have liked in his first game after un-retiring. Seattle ranks 4th in rushing yards allowed per game and 2nd in yards allowed per rushing attempt.

When Jonathan Taylor was at his best this season, it was because Daniel Jones was also able to threaten a defense with his legs, or beat them with his arm if they committed too many players in the box. Rivers has never been a threat with his legs, and I foresee the Seahawks selling out to stop Taylor, forcing Rivers to beat them.

I don’t think he will beat them, to be clear. But I think Warren will record at least 40 receiving yards.

• Pick: Tyler Warren 40+ Receiving Yards (+124 at FanDuel)