NFL Week 15: Sunday’s 5 Best Bets

Laying some bets during an NFL Sunday has become about as American as apple pie. But wagering your hard-earned money blindly is not going to result in many wins, and losing is about as un-American as borscht. Thankfully, we’ve scoured the moneylines, the spreads, the totals, and the props at all our most trusted online betting sites to find the closest things we can to locks. Here’s what we have for Week 15 in the NFL.

1) The Patriots Pound the Steelers

THE PLAY: PATRIOTS -3 (EVEN)

Let’s not dance around the facts here: Tom Brady and the New England Patriots looked awful in Miami on Monday night. Brady’s 59.5 passer rating was a result of the pivot under-throwing balls and failing to handle the Dolphins’ pressure. But let me tell you why the Patriots’ Week 14 stinker should have you running to bet them this week.

Since 2003, the Patriots are an incredible 43-7 straight up and 37-13 against the spread after a loss. Ironically, Bill Belichick and his staff thrive on failure. It provides ample opportunity for coaching points and critiques, and trust me when I say, the Patriots had a long week at practice ahead of their Week 15 clash with the AFC-leading Pittsburgh Steelers.

If New England’s resiliency isn’t enough to love them this week, allow me to walk you through the last handful of matchups between the Patriots and Steelers:

• January 22, 2017 (AFC Championship in NE): Patriots win 36-17
• October 23, 2016 (in PIT): Patriots win 27-16
• September 10, 2015 (in NE): Patriots win 28-21
• November 3, 2013 (in NE): Patriots win 55-31
• October 30, 2011 (in PIT): Steelers win 25-17
• November 14, 2010 (in PIT): Patriots win 39-26

If you go back another eight games, you’ll find six more wins for the Patriots. Moral of the story: Belichick and Brady own the Steelers. Brady is 10-2 straight up against Pittsburgh, including three playoff games, with a regular-season passer rating of 114.2.

Belichick is going to force someone other than Antonio Brown to beat him, and I don’t trust the Steelers’ 23rd-ranked rushing attack, which is averaging 3.7 yards per carry, to shoulder the load. Pittsburgh’s defense, on the other hand, has been gashed for big play after big play over the last five weeks, and lost arguably its best defender, Ryan Shazier, for the season. Brady is going to bounce back in a big way.

2) The Cowboys Beat the Raiders on Sunday Night

THE PLAY: COWBOYS -157 (MONEYLINE)

The Dallas Cowboys have stopped the bleeding that started contemporaneously with Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension. Dak Prescott has led Dallas to back-to-back convincing wins, outscoring their opponents 68-24 in that time. But the turnaround cannot be credited to any Prescott heroics, rather the Cowboys getting back to what they do best: pounding the ball.

In three straight losses following Elliott’s suspension, Dallas only ran the ball 22.6 times per game for an average of 99.3 yards. In their last two games, they have run the ball 36.5 times per game for an average of 152 yards. Pounding the rock has allowed the Cowboys to control the clock and keep their defense fresh. Dallas will continue this approach during their Sunday Night Football matchup with the Oakland Raiders, and will continue finding success.

Do not be fooled by the Raiders’ basic defensive stats: 20th in scoring defense, 22nd in total defense, and 13th in yards allowed per rushing attempt. This is a bad unit, a really bad unit, that has had the luxury of playing some really crummy offenses: Denver twice, the Giants, Tennessee etc. Oakland ranks 32nd in defensive DVOA, and are 21st against the run.

If the Raiders load the box to slow the Cowboys on the ground, Dez Bryant will tear their lousy excuse for a secondary apart.

Notable Trends:

• DAL is 4-1 straight up as an away favorite this season
• Dak Prescott is 8-2 straight up in primetime games
• OAK is just 4-3 straight up at home this season

3) The Saints and Jets go UNDER

THE PLAY: UNDER 48 (-110)

There is one player in this game that makes this a great bet: Bryce Petty. Josh McCown has not received nearly enough credit for winning five games and leading a talent-depleted offense to 22.1 points per game ahead of last week’s debacle in Denver. I’m sorry Jets fans, but Robby Anderson is not a dominant receiver; Josh McCown simply disguised him as one.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting McCown is anywhere near the level of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. I am saying he is a whole lot better than Bryce Petty, though. The former fourth-round pick carries a career passer rating of 57.9, and has thrown at least one interception in each of his four career starts. I fully expect the latter trend to continue against a Saints defense that has generated 18 takeaways this season (11th).

Looking closer at Petty’s four career starts, the Jets have managed to score more than 13 points in just one of them, averaging 11.2 points per game. In Week 15, he’ll be up against the best defense he’s seen in his career, statistically speaking. New Orleans only allows 20.2 points per game this year, ranking 11th in the NFL.

I foresee the Jets being shutout for a second straight week, allowing the Saints offense to coast for the majority of the game. The UNDER was already 4-2 in Jets road games; bet it with confidence.

4) Washington and Arizona go OVER

THE PLAY: OVER 41.5 (-110)

Though Arizona is not officially eliminated from the playoffs, it’s safe to say these are two teams whose seasons are over. Do not expect the offenses to pack it in, though. Both Bruce Arians and Jay Gruden pride themselves on being offensive masterminds. Unfortunately, their genius hasn’t resulted in many points for their respective teams this season.

Arians and the Cardinals can chalk up their offensive woes to injuries (David Johnson played one game) and a brutal offensive line, while Gruden can point to all the turnover in personnel and a banged up offensive line. However, neither will hang their hat on any of these excuses. Instead, you’re going to see some creative schemes and play-calling. Now is the time to empty out all those gadget plays they installed in the preseason.

It likely won’t take trickery to score on this Washington defense. The unit ranks last in points allowed, surrendering 26.4 per game, and will be without leading tackler Zach Brown. The Arizona defense is not far ahead, allowing 24.3 points per game this season (25th), in spite of ranking eighth in total yards allowed.

With two horrible defenses, two extremely creative offensive minds, one quarterback playing for a contract, and another quarterback playing for a job, both offenses should surpass 20 points, making the OVER a solid bet. There are a number of trends that favor the OVER, as well, including:

• The OVER is 3-2 in Washington’s last five games
• The OVER is 4-1 in Arizona’s last five games

5) The Packers Upset the Panthers

THE PLAY: PACKERS +125 (MONEYLINE)

There is only one way to start this preview: Aaron Rodgers is back. And the Packers team he is returning to is much better than the one he left back in Week 6. Green Bay ranks seventh in DVOA against the run, the secondary has been helped by the rise of Damarious Randall over the last handful of weeks, and the offense ranks third in rushing DVOA.

Now you add back in arguably the most talented quarterback to ever play the game, and the result is going to be a motivated, confident, and very dangerous team. Aaron Rodgers was playing some of his best football before breaking his collarbone against the Vikings, posting a 104.1 passer rating entering that Week 6 matchup. It’s easy to believe that an eight-week hiatus could lead to some rust, but keep in mind he has been throwing with the team for more than just a week.

Carolina is coming off an emotional victory over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14, but didn’t escape the game unscathed. Trai Turner suffered a concussion and Cam Newton’s shoulder got a little banged up. The former will be forced to miss Week 15, while Newton is listed as “probable.” If Newton has any sort of hesitancy lowering his shoulder into contact, it would be a major issue for the Panthers’ power run game.

The 9-4 Panthers’ success this season has come from a healthy Newton running the ball (585 rushing yards on 100 attempts), and their stingy defense winning the battle for field position. But Carolina will need Newton’s arm in this one. Green Bay’s front seven has been very good against the run, but they rank 20th in DVOA against the pass. Unfortunately, Cam Newton qua passer has not been nearly as effective as Cam Newton qua runner; his passer rating this season is just 81.9 and he’s thrown just 17 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

When this game turns into a shootout, I’m siding with a possibly rusty Aaron Rodgers over a turnover-prone Cam Newton.