Upcoming Match-ups

NFL Week 17 Betting – Jets Can Clinch with Win in Buffalo

Zack Garrison

by Zack Garrison in NFL Football

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

New York Jets (-3, 43 o/u) at Buffalo Bills

The New York Jets (10-5, 4-3 Away) got an absolute gift last Sunday as Ryan Mallett led the decimated Ravens to a win over Pittsburgh. Now New York controls its own playoff fate, needing just one more win in Week 17 to punch a ticket to the postseason. Of course, that will mean topping former coach Rex Ryan and his new squad, the Buffalo Bills (7-8, 4-3 Home), this Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium (1:00 PM Eastern).

Ryan spent five seasons with the Jets and took the team to two AFC championship games in his first two years.  But three non-playoff seasons followed, including a dreadful 4-12 campaign last year which led to Ryan’s ouster.

Under new head coach Todd Bowles, the Jets bear little resemblance to the 2014 edition. Journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career year, while free agent acquisition Brandon Marshall has posted Pro-Bowl numbers at receiver (1,376 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns).

Coupled with a still-staunch defense, “Fitzy” and company have surged down the stretch, winning five straight.

The win streak continued in impressive fashion last weekend with a 26-20 win over the AFC-leading Patriots. Granted, the Patriots are dealing with injury problems, but taking down Belichick and Brady is never an easy feat.

Adding to the intrigue of this matchup is the fact that Fitzpatrick spent four seasons with the Bills (2009-2012).

“I’m a much smarter player,” said Fitzpatrick, comparing his current self to the QB who played in Buffalo. “I think I understand my game better. I’m a much more patient quarterback. There’s been a tremendous amount of growth for me.”

When Buffalo brought in Rex Ryan in the offseason, he was expected to solidify an already strong defensive unit (one which led the league in sacks in 2014). But Ryan has done just the opposite. The pass rush has significantly regressed, ranking second-worst in the league with just 20 QB takedowns on the year. Many blame Ryan’s overly complicated defensive schemes. Instead of relying on the natural abilities of his front four, he’s dialing up unnecessarily complicated schemes which often have his talented pass rushers dropping back into coverage.

Sunday’s game will be the second meeting of the season between the clubs. Buffalo already won on the road, 22-17, back in early November. Running back LeSean McCoy dominated the line of scrimmage in that one, racking up 112 yards on just 19 carries. But “Shady” won’t be in the lineup come Sunday (knee), so it will be up to rookie Karlos Williams and third-year back Mike Gillislee to carry the load.

Significant betting trends: the Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last ten home games and 6-2-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Ryan will have his boys motivated against his former club. Taking the home dog and the points looks like the best value.

Pick: Bills +3.

 

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