NFL Week 6 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Value Upsets & Underdogs
- We can’t pass up taking the Chiefs getting points at home
- We’re also holding our nose and backing the Broncos offense at home
- Last week’s picks went 1-2, breaking even again, and leaving our season total at -2.27 units (5-9-1 overall)
For the second time this season, our upset picks broke even. That’s almost worse than losing money because it makes the entire exercise feel like a giant waste of time. All those hours of stress just to end up back where we started. Read on though, for NFL Week 6 upset picks, which won’t be for naught.
We’ve got two great showdowns that could go a long way in determining the number-one seeds in the AFC and NFC. We’ve also found a few undervalued underdogs worth backing over the next few days. But how could we start this week’s picks anywhere else, but in the most hyped game on the NFL calendar?
NFL Week 6 Upset Picks
|Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs||BUF -2.5||+122||Chiefs||1|
|Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts||IND -2||+115||Jaguars||1|
|Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos||LAC -4.5||+185||Broncos||1|
Odds as of October 14th at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
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NFL Week 6 upset picks: Chiefs To Beast Bills?
In a rematch of what has been touted as the greatest game ever, the Buffalo Bills are favored by 2.5 points in Arrowhead over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Much like Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or his opponent on Sunday, Josh Allen, when you get a chance to bet on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, how do you pass it up? We weren’t able to pounce on the points when the Chiefs ended up dogs in Tampa Bay, because that line was still a pick ’em when this column was due. Now with the Bills getting nearly a field goal on Mahomes’ home turf, we’re truly in unprecedented territory.
For the first time in his career, Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes is a home underdog. Mahomes had been favored in his first 41 home starts, including the playoffs, the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 12, 2022
The Bills are number one in DVOA and boast an improved pass rush over last season, so I understand why they’re favoured here. But little else about how these teams play each other should change from prior matchups. Buffalo’s defense still runs a ton of zone, so the Chiefs’ passing game should have success finding Travis Kelce.
Patrick Mahomes QBR ranking vs zone defense so far this season: 1st
Chiefs 1st down% vs zone defense so far this season: 1st
The Bills defense has played zone coverage in 72% of their snaps so far this season. pic.twitter.com/NST01yThDX
— 🗣🎙‼️ (@LanceTHESPOKEN) October 13, 2022
Offensively, the Bills still won’t get their running backs consistently involved, so Josh Allen will carry the load through the air and on the ground. Allen’s offensive line has been the only other area of concern this young season, so even though KC’s defense isn’t quite as strong, the front seven could have a few moments on Sunday.
Ok, had an oopsie in the last one. This one is correct. You're not gonna feel much better if you're a Colts fan. lol pic.twitter.com/vKwLBGtwMe
— Stephen Holder (@HolderStephen) October 10, 2022
Much will be made of how the Bills want revenge for the devastating Divisional Round loss. But Buffalo knows firsthand that handing out a smackdown in October doesn’t matter if you still get your lunch money stolen in January. Don’t worry about this week Bills fans: catharsis comes in the AFC Championship.
Jags Jump on Colts
The Jacksonville Jaguars look to complete the early season sweep of their division rival this week when they visit the Indianapolis Colts as two-point underdogs.
I understand that the Jags laid an egg last weekend against the Texans, so some of the early-season excitement surrounding this team has worn off. But what have we seen from Indy over the last month to suggest this weekend will go any better than the 24-0 shellacking that Jacksonville handed them in Week 2?
The Colts still can’t block, they still lack downfield playmakers and injuries continue to hit their top players.
Notable Players on the Injury Report
DE Jadeveon Clowney (OUT)
CB Denzel Ward (OUT)
TE Kyle Pitts (Questionable)
LB Shaq Leonard (OUT)
DE Kwity Paye (OUT)
DE Nick Bosa (Questionable)
WR Kadarius Toney (OUT)
WR Kenny Golladay (OUT)
— danielgfxz (@DanielPeskosky) October 14, 2022
The Jaguars outgained the Texans nearly two to one on offense last week but repeatedly shot themselves in the foot in the red zone. As long as Doug Pederson’s bunch can clean it up a bit, even enough to kick a few more field goals, that should be all they need to win. Unless their opponents are going to hand them great field position, the Colts have done little to show they’re capable of cracking double-digit points.
Be honest who had the #Colts being the worst offense five weeks into the season.#ForTheShoe #NFL pic.twitter.com/nSIRWlj3OH
— Sportskeeda Pro Football (@SKProFootball) October 14, 2022
For as bad as the Colts have been, they’re the team coming off a win last week. With the Jags looking to end a two-game skid, take the more desperate, more talented team on the road.
Broncos Bust Bolts
The NFL world groans as the Denver Broncos play in primetime again, this week as a 4.5-point home dog to the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Broncos may have an unwatchable offense, but they’re in every game thanks to their dominant defense.
Meanwhile, despite zero help from the O, the #Broncos' defense remains a top-10 unit in:
• Red zone % (1st)
• Passing YPG (1st)
• Total YPG (3rd)
• PPG (T-4th)
• Sacks (T-4th)
• YPP (6th)
• Third down % (7th)
— Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) October 13, 2022
Even if you’re buying that Russell Wilson is washed, Denver should still be able to find success on the ground against this bad Bolts run defense. LA is allowing an average of 165 rushing yards over their last three games. They’ve managed to pull two of those games out because the teams they were playing were even worse at stopping the run. That won’t be the case for Austin Ekeler this week.
Austin Ekeler is ROCKING lately 🎸 pic.twitter.com/h5fJzcndO3
— NFL On Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) October 10, 2022
I laid out why Los Angeles is worth fading in Week 4 and even though it didn’t pan out, I still stand by those statements. Throw in the fact that the Chargers have won just one of their last nine trips to Mile High Stadium and I think the Broncos could give bettors a nice bounce-back opportunity on Monday night if the rest of the weekend doesn’t go your way.
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