NFL Week 5 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets & Underdogs Showing Value
- Can the high-scoring Lions keep it up against the Patriots?
- Will the Seahawks prevail over the Saints?
- Last week’s picks went 0-2, costing us 3 units and sending us down to -2.27 (4-7-1 overall)
Last week’s picks were an oh-fer: talk about raining on our parade. Actually, I shouldn’t mention rain or Trevor Lawrence might drop the ball again.
But there’s no time to dwell on the past, there’s a lot to like looking at the NFL’s Week 5 lines.
This week, we’re taking a trio of road dogs, led by some of the more surprisingly strong performers under center in the NFC.
NFL Week 5 Upset Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots | NE -3 | +143 | Lions | 1 |
| Seattle Seahawks vs New Orleans Saints | NO -5 | +180 | Seahawks | 1 |
| Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams | LAR -5 | +200 | Cowboys | 1 |
Odds as of October 7th at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
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Lions Boatrace Pats
In a battle of 1-3 teams, the Detroit Lions head to Foxborough where the New England Patriots are favored by three.
By now, you must be aware of how potent Detroit’s offense is. Even if you’ve been avoiding Lions games, this team is popping up on RedZone the most frequently, thanks to their ability to find the endzone, as well as their inability to stop their opponents from doing the same.
Through four weeks, the Detroit Lions have the:
-Highest scoring offense in the NFL (140 points scored)
-Most points allowed in the NFL (141 points against) pic.twitter.com/TTWolrOO5U
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 4, 2022
For a team that’s always in a shootout, this should be the week they’re actually able to close out a game. If they can’t stop a rookie out Western Kentucky making his first career start, in an offense led by Detroit pariah Matt Patricia, then it might be time to start questioning Dan Campbell’s credentials. (Perhaps his team is too focused on biting ankles to go for the jugular?)
Be it Bailey Zappe or whoever at QB for New England, they’ll keep running the ball against the Lions until Detroit shows they can stop it.
"I believe that Aaron Glenn is the right man for the job"
– Dan Campbell on his ability to make a hard decision, but he still believes Glenn is the best option. #OnePride pic.twitter.com/lv2WOQSn2h
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) October 3, 2022
It’s tough to put up the 35 points needed to hang with the Lions’ offense strictly on the ground though. New England will need something out of their passing game, and that’s where I’m skeptical of their ability to cover here. Look for Jeff Okudah to make a big play this weekend and show Patricia that he knows as much about running an offense as he does a defense.
Seahawks Stymie Saints
Fresh off a trip to London, the New Orleans Saints head home as five-point favorites over the surging Seattle Seahawks.
Be honest Seahawks fans, before the year, did any of you think you’d be heading into this Week 5 matchup with such a clear advantage at the quarterback position? Geno Smith was a cast off like Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton, but unlike those two, he’s making the most of his long overdue opportunity now.
Holy Geno Smith pic.twitter.com/chf2yTmScH
— Daniel Harms🏈 (@InHarmsWay19) October 3, 2022
The Saints’ defense will be a stiffer test than what Smith has played the last few weeks, but they’re certainly not at the level of previous years. Their pass rush hasn’t been good this year and that could continue against a well- performing Seahawks line.
the Saints were dead last in Pass Rush Win Rate entering Week 4,
miles behind the 31st-ranked Patriots— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) October 2, 2022
Offensively, there’s things to like about the Saints. Chris Olave has been excellent. Michael Thomas has shown flashes of old when he’s available. But all told, the operation has been sloppy and slow to get off the bus.
Rashaad Penny and Austin Blythe return to practice after missing Wednesday, Blythe after adding a new baby to his family.
Marquise Goodwin (knee), Ken Walker (shoulder) limited.
Saints practice: Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas still out. Alvin Kamara on track to play Sunday pic.twitter.com/Ie2Huk7kbU
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) October 6, 2022
In the post-Brees era, the Saints are just 2-6 ATS in the Superdome. They’ll be desperate for a win on Sunday, but I still don’t think they deserve to be giving five points here. Take the value with the Seahawks.
Cowboys Clamp Down Rams
Undefeated Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys are 5.5-point underdogs to the Los Angeles Rams in what should be a de facto home game for America’s Team.
The defending champs offense looks like a rock band that keeps touring well past their heyday. They’ve got a different bassist and drummer, and you can tell the rhythm is off. Allen Robinson hasn’t settled into the number two role yet, and the offensive line clearly misses Andrew Whitworth and Austin Corbett, starting a different combination seemingly every game.
Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp are still playing the hits, but it’s not nearly as effective as last season, as opposing defenses don’t need to focus their attention anywhere else.
Through 4 games, Stafford has targeted Kupp a whopping 36% of his throws. I know it’s not simple, but feel like this should be exploited more. https://t.co/2aoYGnMWWf
— Danny G (@DannyG_49) October 4, 2022
The Cowboys’ defense has picked up right where they left off last year, playing like one of the league’s best, despite not generating nearly as many takeaways. Dallas can be run on though, too bad the Rams are in no position to take advantage.
I don’t know why this spread isn’t a field goal or less, considering it feels like the Rams’ D is going to have to win this one. With Rush, the Cowboys’ offense has been able to stay on schedule and hasn’t turned the ball over in two straight games. It seems funny to say, but I have more faith in Rush avoiding a disaster play on Sunday than Stafford.
If you're looking for some positives for Matt Stafford and the Rams offense, he is 4th in passing EPA excluding INTs and sacks. Way too may mistakes though, last in combined EP lost to mistakes pic.twitter.com/HMXprK9Osw
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) October 5, 2022
Another Dallas win will really kickstart the stupid “Rush should start over Dak Prescott?” debate and that would be the funniest outcome. So join me on team chaos and back the Cowboys here.
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Eric Thompson has been with SBD since 2015, serving as a sports betting expert in NFL, NHL, NBA, and MLB. If you want someone who eats, sleeps, and breathes sports news and betting, Eric is your man. Having studied economics at university, he understands what value is and how to spot it.
