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Chiefs-Raiders Line Moving in Favor of Oakland After Impressive Showing on MNF

Oakland QB Derek Carr with his helmet off
Can Derek Carr move the Oakland Raiders to 2-0 with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) CC License.
  • The Oakland Raiders pulled off an upset over the Broncos in Week 1
  • Next they have the high-powered Kansas City Chiefs
  • The line is moving in the Raiders’ favor; can they cover against KC on Sunday in Oakland?

The Oakland Raiders shoved all that drama aside and won on Monday night in Week 1. The victory was a welcome distraction. It even had Jon Gruden doing victory laps.

Next up for the Black Hole? A date with Kansas City in Week 2 (Sunday, Sep. 15th).

All the Chiefs did was dismantle the Jaguars’ defense. And they were missing Tyreek Hill for most of the offensive showcase.

While a win may be hard to come by, could the Raiders end up covering?

Week 2: Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders

Team Spread at BetOnline* Moneyline O/U
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 (-105) -350 O 52.5 (-115)
Oakland Raiders +7.5 (-115) +290 U 52.5 (-115)

*Odds taken 09/10/2019.

The line is not identical at every site, as you can see in the Chiefs vs Raiders odds. But the movement on this game has been interesting.

At first, the Chiefs shot way ahead, opening as -9 favorites after their win.

Then Monday happened. Derek Carr led scoring drives in the first and second quarter, and the Broncos didn’t score a TD until late in the fourth. That performance has moved the line back down to 6.5

Can Mahomes Survive Without Tyreek Hill?

Judging from the way they shredded the Jags’ defense, adjusting to life without Hill won’t be a big issue.

That said, last year, Mahomes played one game without Hill. It was his NFL debut in Denver. He completed 63% of his passes for 284 yards, but finished with one interception and no touchdowns.

He clearly didn’t miss him that much Sunday, as Sammy Watkins dominated to the tune of 198 yards and three touchdowns. But let’s say Watkins posts a more pedestrian stat line and Travis Kelce is just ok.

Here’s what the other Chiefs’ pass catchers did.

Chiefs Offense in Week 1

Receiver Targets Catches Yards YPC
Damien Williams 8 6 39 6.5
Anthony Sherman 1 1 15 15
LeSean McCoy 1 1 12 12
Blake Bell 1 1 7 7
Darwin Thompson 1 1 3 3
Demarcus Robinson 2 1 0 0

Those numbers paint a significantly different picture. Watkins and Kelce combined for 19 targets, overall. That’s 57% of Mahomes’ pass attempts.

You also have to consider that 18 of Williams’ yards came off of one catch. Removing that, his 5/21 line bumps his YPC down to 4.2.

We’re not saying the Chiefs’ offense will be shut down. It just won’t be as electric.

Oakland Raiders Need Carr to Come Up Big vs Chiefs

Derek Carr has not had the best career when it comes to facing the Chiefs. In 10 games, he has a 2-8 record, and his 58.8% completion percentage is the second-lowest against any team he’s played at least three times.

Carr’s Career Numbers vs KC

Record vs KC COMP % TD/INT Yards YPG Rating
2-8 58.8% 13/9 2,313 231.3 76.0

Carr had three big assets on Monday against the Broncos: Josh Jacobs, Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller.

Williams and Waller combined to bring in 13 of Carr’s 22 completions and 175 of his 259 yards. The Chiefs struggled to slow down Jacksonville’s DJ Chark and Chris Conley, who combined for 10 catches and just under 250 yards.

That could be good news for Williams.

Can Oakland Raiders Keep it Close with Kansas City Chiefs?

Being a divisional game, it’ll be closer than most people think.

Carr and his weapons should be able to put up numbers against KC. The bigger question is whether Josh Jacobs can find the same success (5.08 yards per rush) that Leonard Fournette did.

If the Raiders can control the clock more than Jacksonville did, it’ll give Jacobs that chance.

Ultimately though, we think Travis Kelce does go off, making him the difference. Expect them to win somewhere in the eight-to-ten point range. Don’t consider the under unless it starts to hover close to nine again.

The Pick: Chiefs -7.5 (-105)

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