Odds Against Reuben Foster Serving More Than Half-Year in Jail

• Reuben Foster’s career in limbo following latest incident
• Could Foster find himself behind bars for domestic violence?
• What punishment will the NFL impose if he is reinstated? 

Man, NFL.

This has been one of the most compelling, remarkable and wildly amazing seasons. And yet, it’s stories like Reuben Foster’s that make every fan feel dirty for continuing to tune in.

Many women abused by athletes say the abusive mentality, and their own concessions to their abusers, are exacerbated by the abuser's employment continuing unabated by reported incidents.

Washington has sent a clear message: Winning matters. People don’t.https://t.co/bJRa9nFem2

— robertklemko (@RobertKlemko) November 28, 2018

Last Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers released the linebacker for a domestic violence incident.

He’s accused of pushing a phone out of the hand of Elissa Ennis, a woman he has had an on-again-off-again relationship with for a few years, before pushing her in the chest area, and then hitting her with an open hand on her face.

Just two days later, the Washington Redskins claimed him off waivers, the only franchise that made a claim for him.

Let’s just say this wasn’t the best PR move. And social media has the franchise and the NFL over a spit, roasting over extremely hot coals.

Perspective: Redskins ignore Colin Kaepernick, sign Reuben Foster and remind us of who they are https://t.co/iSJDNuQIK9

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 28, 2018

It didn’t help that Doug Williams, the team’s Senior VP of Personnel, called the incident ‘small potatoes’ to other gruesome stories around the league. He had to walk back his statement a day later.

Doug Williams' "small potatoes" line re: Foster's domestic violence charge is (reasonably) getting a lot of play, but this part is bad, too. What if the risk wasn't bad PR—but harm to Foster's ex-girlfriend, to domestic violence survivors, to women? https://t.co/h9abGA3Wkg pic.twitter.com/8NCGhEFgwu

— Emma Baccellieri (@emmabaccellieri) November 29, 2018

The worst part? This isn’t even the worst story in the NFL on this very same topic this week.

While Foster sits on the Commissioner’s exempt list, unable to practice, play, or be around his new team, and no decision looming on his immediate future until this situation plays out, Sportsbooks have released some odds on what Foster faces if he ever makes it back to the NFL.

Odds on Reuben Foster’s Punishment

Unlike Ray Rice or Kareem Hunt, there is no video evidence of what has happened, so on that basis, it’s somehow less egregious, so you could argue Foster will make it back to the NFL.

Ray Rice was 27 years old when he was suspended and had played 92 games. Hunt is just 23 and has played 27. He’s going to get a second life and whoever picks him up will get crushed by the media and [some] fans but will be a huge bargain. Who takes that chance?

— Anthony Lima (@SportsBoyTony) December 1, 2018

Greg Hardy, the one-time star defensive end for the Panthers, was charged and found guilty for an incident that included choking a woman and throwing her onto a bed of firearms.

Somehow he landed on the Cowboys the next season before the bad PR cloud following him finally sent him away from the NFL for good.

This isn’t about Kareem Hunt.
This isn’t about Reuben Foster.
This isn’t about Ray Rice.
This isn’t about Greg Hardy.

This is about the @nfl, a systemic problem, and their negligence to try and eradicate this behavior for the sake of winning football games.

— Natalie Egenolf (@NatalieEgenolf) November 30, 2018

Then again, we’ve seen Bengals running back Joe Mixon punch a woman out cold while he was in college, and he’s a starter putting up decent numbers. Go figure.

I’m not defending Kareem Hunt but how does Joe Mixon get Drafted after this. Doesn’t compare to Kareem Hunt pic.twitter.com/mul8GyCr3b

— Nick (@NickBurnett5) December 1, 2018

Foster will be a repeat offender, as he was already suspended two games to start this season for marijuana possession. Ezekiel Elliott got six games for being accused of domestic violence – and was never charged or convicted.

If Foster does get reinstated, there is no way he gets less than 3.5 games.

Odds Foster Is Put Behind Bars

According to this USA Today comprehensive arrest list of NFL players, including Foster’s, you have to scroll down 43 incidents – everything from drugs, drunk driving to domestic violence and everything in between – to find one that resulted in jail time.

Bad nine days for NFL. Adrian Peterson admits that he still spanks son, league says nothing. Reuben Foster arrested, cut, claimed on waivers and paid to not play. Kareem Hunt video that league knew or should have known about emerges out of the blue.

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 1, 2018

Now, a chunk of those are still awaiting resolution, so there is the possibility that those numbers change,  but those figures suggest it would be a little surprising if this incident moves to a trial where Foster could see real jail time.