Odds on Which Coaches Will Be Fired Before Black Monday: Shurmur & Marrone’s Jobs Not Safe

• As many as eight different coaches could be fired by “Black Monday”, i.e. the day after the final game of the 2019 NFL season
• Several of these coaches will be back on the carousel come January
• Of the eight, Pat Shurmur of the New York Giants and Doug Marrone of the Jacksonville Jaguars are favorites to be fired

Those in NFL circles refer to the Monday after the final Sunday of the season as “Black Monday” because of what it usually means for the coaching profession: multiple head coaches get the axe each and every year.

Six coaches were fired in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons; in both years, four lost their jobs on Black Monday. In 2016, five coaches were fired, and only two were canned on Black Monday.

So far this season, Jay Gruden of the Washington Redskins and Ron Rivera of the Carolina Panthers have already been fired, but at least a handful more will follow in the near future, according to the latest odds.

Odds on Which Coaching Jobs Will Be Vacant by Black Monday

*Odds taken December 17th.

Oh He Gone

Pat Shurmur and Doug Marrone are just waiting for the call. Shurmur has brought nothing to a Giants’ offense that has playmakers, and he refused to relinquish play-calling to focus on the team as a whole when things began to spiral. In other words, he’s failed to address the structural problems right under his nose. In addition, there’s uncertainty in the front office surrounding GM Dave Gettleman’s future.

As for Marrone, it’s time for the Jaguars to tear it down and start over. There is currently the same number of Jaguar first-round picks (Dante Fowler and Jalen Ramsey) playing for the Los Angeles Rams as the Jags (Josh Allen and Leonard Fournette). Similarly to Shurmur’s Giants, Marrone’s Jaguars also have front-office questions.

Typically, new GMs want to hire their own coach, not be stuck with a holdover.

At their current odds, Shurmur (-300) and Marrone (-250) don’t offer a ton of value, but they are relatively certain to be out of work in the coming weeks.

He Should Be Gone

In this tier, Jason Garrett, Dan Quinn, Anthony Lynn and Freddie Kitchens should be fired based on what’s happened this year. All four of these coaches came into the season with talented rosters and playoff expectations. Going into Week 10, Quinn and Kitchens were the two coaches most likely to be fired.

Even though Garrett’s Cowboys can still make the playoffs, it’s only because they’re in the worst division in football.

As for Kitchens, he should be one-and-done because of how things spiraled in Cleveland. Baker Mayfield has regressed; Odell Beckham Jr. only has two receiving touchdowns on the year; it’s become a full-blown circus.

After the Myles Garrett brawl, Kitchens instigated things further wearing a t-shirt which said “Pittsburgh Started it.”

Lynn’s Chargers and Quinn’s Falcons both have enough talent to be postseason contenders. Instead, both teams are likely going to pick in the top 12 of the draft.

Value Bets

When it comes to the coaches who could get one more year, but probably shouldn’t, Matt Patricia tops the list in Detroit. Patricia has GM Bob Quinn, who knows him from their time together in New England, in his corner. But Patricia also took over a ten-win team two years ago and has gone 9-20-1 to date.

I could also see the Bengals being one-and-done with Zac Taylor, who seems overwhelmed as a first-time NFL head coach. The jump from QBs coach to the boss is a drastic jump in a single offseason. Cincinnati could very well opt to go in a different direction at head coach for the future. After all, Joe Burrow is going to need a strong infrastructure to develop into a franchise QB.

In other words, these are both decent values based on their current odds. It’s within reason both could be fired because of how poorly things went this season.

Lastly, I’d stay away from Adam Gase, Kliff Kingsbury, and Vic Fangio.