Odds Favor Nick Foles Remaining with Jaguars in 2020, Colts Listed as Second Option

Nick Foles Jags
Will Nick Foles remain a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars throughout the offseason? Photo from @BigCatCountry (Twitter)
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars are -110 favorites to retain Nick Foles in 2020 despite rumors of the team wanting to get off his contract swirling
  • Foles played in just four games after signing his massive deal last season, both due to injury and performance
  • See which teams are potential destinations for Foles in the odds below

The 2019 season didn’t go exactly as Nick Foles had planned. Signed to a four-year deal worth $88M, including $50.1M guaranteed, Foles was injured in the season opener and would miss the next two months.

While Foles was hurt, rookie Gardner Minshew played well and looked the part of a future starter. Foles would end his first season in Jacksonville playing in just four games.

The biggest question facing Foles this offseason is – will he even be in Jacksonville for the beginning of the 2020 season?

Odds on Which Team Will Nick Foles Play For in 2020

Team Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars -110
Indianapolis Colts +325
Philadelphia Eagles +600
Los Angeles Chargers +650
Chicago Bears +650

Odds taken March 4th

Jacksonville Remains the Favorites

The Jaguars, despite having Minshew on the roster for cheap, remain the odds-on favorite for Foles in 2020. Per Spotrac, Foles’ base salary would be over $15M in 2020, all of which is guaranteed.

He would count almost $22M against the team’s salary cap. Jettisoning Foles would be costly for the Jaguars, as his dead cap hit would cost Jacksonville almost $34M in 2020. That is an untenable number.

It makes sense for Jacksonville to keep Foles. Minshew is cheap for the foreseeable future, costing Jacksonville just over $600K against the cap. The Jags also have a new offensive coordinator in former Washington coach, Jay Gruden, who could be in favor of an open competition for the starting job in training camp.

Minshew Should Start for the Jags

Minshew was brilliant at times for Jacksonville as a rookie. He ended up playing in 14 games, making 12 starts. His numbers were solid, as he passed for over 3,200 yards with 21 touchdowns against just six interceptions.

The team tried to bench Minshew for Foles late in the season and it didn’t work. Foles struggled when re-inserted into the lineup. Minshew came back into the lineup and initially struggled. However, he did finish strong, passing for 295 yards and three scores in a Week 17 blowout win over the Indianapolis Colts.

It’s cheap for Jacksonville to keep both quarterbacks. If you add the combined cap numbers for 2020, it is still lower than most mid-range starters. Foles is a true professional as we saw in Philadelphia, and his presence could benefit Minshew, at least for the 2020 season.

The Colts Aren’t a Match

The Colts were stung by Andrew Luck’s retirement just before the season in 2019. Fortunately for Indianapolis, Jacoby Brissett was there. Brissett had his moments in 2019, at times looking like a bonafide NFL starter. However, he also had his struggles.

Head coach Frank Reich, a noted quarterback guru who has a history with Foles, got the most he could out of Brissett.

Indianapolis is probably in the market for both a veteran and a rookie in 2020. That veteran likely won’t be Foles. The Colts are rumored to have significant interest in Philip Rivers. Rivers also has a strong history with Reich. And Rivers will be looking for a coach to get the most out of what will be his final years.

Chargers Make Sense for Foles, But Don’t Bet Against Jags

The Chargers — Rivers’ old team — will be in the market for a signal-caller. Foles would make sense there. It would likely be a short-term stint as the team is expected to be involved in the search for a young quarterback. Foles’ biggest veteran competition in Los Angeles would be Tyrod Taylor.

Plus, the Chargers would have the room to bring in Foles at his current cap number as they are projected to have almost $50M in cap room, per Over the Cap.

The biggest key to remember here is money. If in doubt, follow the money. A new team acquiring Foles would be getting a decent quarterback contract. However, it isn’t that easy for the Jaguars. It makes more sense to keep Foles until the next offseason when it becomes less prohibitive to let him go. In the meantime, Jacksonville’s quarterback situation is solid for the 2020 campaign.

At -110 with a return to Jacksonville, that is the smart choice here.

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