Upcoming Match-ups

Odds to Lead NFL in Passer Rating in 2019: Drew Brees Listed as Favorite

New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees
BetOnline favors New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees to lead the NFL in passer rating, something he hasn't done since 2009. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License].
  • BetOnline lists New Orleans Saints’ QB Drew Brees as the +250 favorite to lead the NFL in passer rating in 2019
  • Brees last topped the league in this department in 2009. He finished second in passer rating last season
  • Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs was the NFL passer rating champion in 2018

Is a strong Brees about to blow in and capture the NFL passer rating title for the 2019 season? BetOnline believes that to be the case.

The sportsbook lists New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees as the +250 chalk to be the leader this season in NFL passer rating. Brees finished second overall last season with a QB rating of 79.2.

2019 NFL Regular Season Passer Ratings Odds

QB (Team) 2018 Passer Rating (NFL Rank) Odds at BetOnline
Drew Brees (Saints) 79.2 (2nd) +250
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 80.3 (1st) +300
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) 58.0 (16th) +400
Matt Ryan (Falcons) 65.7 (9th) +450
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) 63.3 (11th) +600
DeShaun Watson (Texans) 61.8 (13th) +1200
Philip Rivers (Chargers) 67.8 (7th) +1200
Carson Wentz (Eagles) 62.0 (12th) +1600
Jared Goff (Rams) 63.6 (10th) +1600
Andrew Luck (Colts) 69.6 (5th) +1800
Kirk Cousins (Vikings) 59.5 (14th) +1800
Tom Brady (Patriots) 68.4 (6th) +2000
Baker Mayfield (Browns) 51.2 (23rd) +3300
Jimmy Garappolo (49ers) 90.0 (DNQ) +3300
Mitchell Trubisky (Bears) 71.0 (3rd) +3300

*Odds taken on 08/07/19. Follow link for complete list.

Kansas City Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes edged Brees for the title. Mahomes finished the season with a passer rating of 80.3.

A Steady Brees

During his entire 13-season tenure under center for the Saints, Brees has been all around the passer rating title. In fact, his presence as a legitimate contender for the title extends all the way back to 2004, his fourth season with the-then San Diego Chargers.

Brees has ended the season in the top 10 of the passer rating standings in each and every season since 2004. He’s covered every spot in the top 10 over that time period save #6 and #10.

Brees was second last season and in 2011. That year, his 82.3 passer rating was edged out by the 83.8 of Green Bay Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers.

He’s been third once, fourth twice, fifth twice, seventh twice, eighth on three occasions and once ended up ninth overall.

In 2009, Brees wore the NFL passer rating crown for the only time in his career, posting an NFL-best 82.0 QB rating.

Small Sample Size

Mahomes enjoyed a year to remember in his first season at the helm of the Chiefs, leading them to within a score of going to the Super Bowl for the first time since Super Bowl 4.

There’s two problems with backing Mahomes to post the NFL’s top passer rating. Firstly, we’re dealing with a small sample size, just one season as a starting NFL QB. What a spectacular season it was, mind you.

However, what are the odds Mahomes will do better this season? Slim. And the odds that he regresses? Likely.

NFL Regular Season Passer Rating Champions

Season QB (Team) Passer Rating
2018 Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 80.3
2017 Carson Wentz (Eagles) 78.5
2016 Matt Ryan (Falcons) 79.6
2015 Carson Palmer (Cardinals) +600
2014 Tony Romo (Cowboys) 79.2

The other dilemma is that when it comes to NFL passer rating champions, it’s never a good idea to stand pat.

In the past six seasons, there’ve been six different winners of this title. Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts was the last to earn successive passer rating crowns in 2012-13.

Longshots to Consider

There are plenty of past champions to look at beyond Brees and Mahomes, including Ryan, Rodgers and Wentz. Tom Brady (+2000) is a two-time winner and was sixth overall last season.

Deeper on the board, Chicago’s Mitchell Trubisky was third in 2018. Jimmy Garappolo of the 49ers showed a passer rating of 90.0 when he suffered a season-ending knee injury. Both can be had for +3300.

Pick: Aaron Rodgers (+400)

Author Image
Discussion

Let's have fun and keep it civil.