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Odds to Lose the Most Games in 2019 NFL Regular Season For All 32 Teams: Dolphins Listed as +600 Favorite

Kenny Stills
It's shaping up to be another long season for Kenny Stills and the Miami Dolphins. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)
  • The Miami Dolphins lead the pack in the odds to finish dead-last in the NFL
  • Behind them is a slew of bad teams getting +800 odds
  • Which teams offer the best value to finish with the worst record?

It’s no secret among the NFL world that the Miami Dolphins don’t plan to be good at football next year. They’re at the bottom of the 2019 Super Bowl odds and have the lowest win total of any team.

But for the last decade before this, the Dolphins’ plan was always to make the playoffs. It just goes to show that even the worst plans go awry. So, will Miami be able to successfully fail in 2019, or will another team emerge in the Tank for Tua?

Odds to Lose the Most Games in 2019 NFL Regular Season

Which Team Will Lose the Most Regular Season Games in 2019? Odds
Miami Dolphins +600
Arizona Cardinals +800
Cincinnati Bengals +800
New York Giants +800
Oakland Raiders +800
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +800
Washington +800
Buffalo Bills +1000
Denver Broncos +1000
Detroit Lions +1000
New York Jets +1000
Carolina Panthers +1200
Baltimore Ravens +1400
Jacksonville Jaguars +1400
San Francisco 49ers +1400
Houston Texans +2000
Tennessee Titans +2000
Seattle Seahawks +2500
Atlanta Falcons +3300
Cleveland Browns +3300
Dallas Cowboys +3300
Minnesota Vikings +3300
Pittsburgh Steelers +3300
Chicago Bears +5000
Green Bay Packers +5000
Indianapolis Colts +6600
Los Angeles Chargers +6600
Philadelphia Eagles +6600
Kansas City Chiefs +8000
Los Angeles Rams +15000
New Orleans Saints +15000
New England Patriots +25000

* Odds taken 05/23/19

This bet only rewards the team that selects first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, so if three teams tie at 3-13, only one will pay out. Let’s examine which teams won this bet over the last five years.

Worst Record in the NFL Over Last 5 Seasons

Year Team Record
2014 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-14
2015 Tennessee Titans 3-13
2016 Cleveland Browns 1-15
2017 Cleveland Browns 0-16
2018 Arizona Cardinals 3-13

Perhaps the most interesting trend is that the last four of these bottom of the barrel teams started a rookie QB for the majority of their games (Marcus Mariota, Cody Kessler, Deshone Kizer and Josh Rosen). Ideally, if we’re looking for value, you want to find a young quarterback that is walking into a hopeless situation. Cue more Dolphins talk.

Can Miami Phinish What They Started?

Football isn’t like the other three major sports, particularly when it comes to tanking. With only 16 games in a season, there’s no mid-season lull; no mail-it-in March where your stars are resting. Even if your roster is hot garbage, it’s hot garbage that gives its all, every time it takes the field. And in a “game of inches,” sometimes that garbage comes out on the wrong side: which is to say, they win.

Take last year’s Raiders as an example.

Every transaction Jon Gruden’s team made in 2018 suggested they valued draft picks for the future and losing for the present. They stumbled to a 4-12 record, but that won’t net you last place.

What about the Buffalo Bills? They looked to have the least-talented roster of any team taking an NFL field in 2018 (that includes those flag football teams that play at halftime).

They managed five wins last year!

Miami may be trying to position themselves as losers, but try telling their players that. Josh Rosen was a 10th overall pick last year and his former team already gave up on him. Think he’s got something to prove this season? Even if they roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Fitzmagic will strike a few teams this year and deliver a some unwanted Ws.

Even if the Dolphins roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Fitzmagic will strike a few teams this year and deliver a some unwanted Ws.

Considering they’re in a division with the aforementioned Bills and the equally hapless Jets, losses may not be easy to find. Also, due to some bad karma that probably still applies from the Snow Plow game, you can chalk up at least one inexplicable Dolphins win over the Patriots.

Miami could easily reach five wins next year, so I don’t love the value of +600.

Who is the Bottom of the NFC Least?

The Giants and the Haskins are both near the top of this list, having both selected their QB of the future a few weeks ago. One team’s fanbase was happier with their choice than the other.

As we saw earlier, sticking a rookie QB (who is not the first overall pick) in a bad situation early is a good way to find yourself in last place. And the receiving corps on both of these teams make punting on third down seem like a viable option.

While early rumblings indicate Haskins is the only one who has a chance at sniffing the field this year, it will be very difficult for New York to trot out noodle arm Eli for another dismal season with his heir apparent on the bench. Both these rookies could play a lot this season. Outside of head-to-head matchups, neither should experience many victories.

Value Plays

Along with the dumpy NFC East squads, I like Carolina at +1200. We saw how awful this team could be down the stretch, when they lost seven of eight. I’ve already gone on record as skeptical of Cam Newton’s shoulder and if he can’t stay healthy and productive, the 2019 Panthers season could go off the rails fast.

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