- The Miami Dolphins lead the pack in the odds to finish dead-last in the NFL
- Behind them is a slew of bad teams getting +800 odds
- Which teams offer the best value to finish with the worst record?
https://t.co/5OGYFN9qRz apparently aware of Dolphins' plans to tank, makes Miami 100 to 1 to win the Super Bowl in 2019 – BY FAR longest odds in league. Seven teams next lowest at 66 to 1.
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) January 16, 2019
But for the last decade before this, the Dolphins’ plan was always to make the playoffs. It just goes to show that even the worst plans go awry. So, will Miami be able to successfully fail in 2019, or will another team emerge in the Tank for Tua?
Odds to Lose the Most Games in 2019 NFL Regular Season
|Which Team Will Lose the Most Regular Season Games in 2019?||Odds|
|New York Giants||+800|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+800|
|New York Jets||+1000|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1400|
|Green Bay Packers||+5000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+6600|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+8000|
|Los Angeles Rams||+15000|
|New Orleans Saints||+15000|
|New England Patriots||+25000|
* Odds taken 05/23/19
This bet only rewards the team that selects first overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, so if three teams tie at 3-13, only one will pay out. Let’s examine which teams won this bet over the last five years.
Worst Record in the NFL Over Last 5 Seasons
|2014||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||2-14|
Perhaps the most interesting trend is that the last four of these bottom of the barrel teams started a rookie QB for the majority of their games (Marcus Mariota, Cody Kessler, Deshone Kizer and Josh Rosen). Ideally, if we’re looking for value, you want to find a young quarterback that is walking into a hopeless situation. Cue more Dolphins talk.
Can Miami Phinish What They Started?
Football isn’t like the other three major sports, particularly when it comes to tanking. With only 16 games in a season, there’s no mid-season lull; no mail-it-in March where your stars are resting. Even if your roster is hot garbage, it’s hot garbage that gives its all, every time it takes the field. And in a “game of inches,” sometimes that garbage comes out on the wrong side: which is to say, they win.
Take last year’s Raiders as an example.
Only the @raiders could try to tank and fail.
Went from 1st pick to 3rd thanks to a worthless win.
— Styles T (@MeCrazyMatt) November 19, 2018
Every transaction Jon Gruden’s team made in 2018 suggested they valued draft picks for the future and losing for the present. They stumbled to a 4-12 record, but that won’t net you last place.
What about the Buffalo Bills? They looked to have the least-talented roster of any team taking an NFL field in 2018 (that includes those flag football teams that play at halftime).
There is a legitimate chance that this year’s @buffalobills may be the WORST NFL team we’ve seen this decade. Forget records (the 0-16teams in Detroit & CLEVELAND in recent memory. I’m not talking record. I’m just saying they are God-Awful. Is there any worse than Peterman?#Lordy
— Stephen A Smith (@stephenasmith) September 9, 2018
They managed five wins last year!
Miami may be trying to position themselves as losers, but try telling their players that. Josh Rosen was a 10th overall pick last year and his former team already gave up on him. Think he’s got something to prove this season? Even if they roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Fitzmagic will strike a few teams this year and deliver a some unwanted Ws.
Even if the Dolphins roll with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Fitzmagic will strike a few teams this year and deliver a some unwanted Ws.
Considering they’re in a division with the aforementioned Bills and the equally hapless Jets, losses may not be easy to find. Also, due to some bad karma that probably still applies from the Snow Plow game, you can chalk up at least one inexplicable Dolphins win over the Patriots.
The Dolphins win on a miracle TD! pic.twitter.com/5UjWO8WXvY
— Athlete Swag (@AthleteSwag) December 9, 2018
Miami could easily reach five wins next year, so I don’t love the value of +600.
Who is the Bottom of the NFC Least?
The Giants and the Haskins are both near the top of this list, having both selected their QB of the future a few weeks ago. One team’s fanbase was happier with their choice than the other.
Giants fans were NOT happy about drafting QB Daniel Jones with the No. 6 pick. pic.twitter.com/2cUztsVTBS
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) April 26, 2019
As we saw earlier, sticking a rookie QB (who is not the first overall pick) in a bad situation early is a good way to find yourself in last place. And the receiving corps on both of these teams make punting on third down seem like a viable option.
Fewest touchdowns by wide receivers as a team in 2018:
1. Titans: 7
2. Redskins: 8
3. Raiders: 9
Antonio Brown: 15, tied for most amongst all players.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) March 2, 2019
While early rumblings indicate Haskins is the only one who has a chance at sniffing the field this year, it will be very difficult for New York to trot out noodle arm Eli for another dismal season with his heir apparent on the bench. Both these rookies could play a lot this season. Outside of head-to-head matchups, neither should experience many victories.
Along with the dumpy NFC East squads, I like Carolina at +1200. We saw how awful this team could be down the stretch, when they lost seven of eight. I’ve already gone on record as skeptical of Cam Newton’s shoulder and if he can’t stay healthy and productive, the 2019 Panthers season could go off the rails fast.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.