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Odds in Favor of Packers Winning a Road Game in 2018

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 4:07 PM PDT

Aaron Rodgers
Will Aaron Rodgers' remarkable interception total remain at 1? Photo by Keith Allison (flickr).
  • Can the Packers, who are 0-6 away from Lambeau, win a road game this season?
  • Get a breakdown of their final two opponents, the Bears and Jets. 
  • Is there any value in betting no?

It hasn’t been a great year for the Green Bay Packers.

At 0-6 away from Lambeau, the Pack have already matched the 1958 team that went 0-6 for the season. Is it possible that they could be the franchise’s first 0-8 road team in the Super Bowl era?  Sportsbooks have posted a prop on just that. Let’s get you on the right side of these odds.

Will Green Bay Win a Road Game in 2018?

Will the Packers win a road game this season? Odds
Yes -450
No +275

Amazingly, at 4-6-1, Green Bay still has a chance at making the playoffs, but it would likely require running the table in their final five games. That means two road wins are a must: Dec. 16 in Chicago and Dec. 23 in New York against the Jets.

Historically, Aaron Rodgers has been a schoolyard bully in Chicago. Even as the NFC North-leading Bears transform into a team no one wants to face, the Windy City may still be a welcome sight for Rodgers.

They will definitely be underdogs at Soldier Field, but they already have a scintillating Rodgers-led comeback over the Bears in a memorable Week 1 win.

YouTube video

If they can’t break through in Chicago, they’ll have one last game to avoid complete road futility when they visit the Jets at MetLife Stadium.

That matchup is considerably easier than facing the Bears at Soldier Field, as the statistics below show.

The Bears are better than the Jets in every statistical category save one: passing yards allowed.

Packers Final Two Road Opponents

Bears
VS
Jets
8-3 (1st, NFC North) Record (Through Week 12) 3-8 (4th, AFC East)
28.8 (5th) PPG 20.1 (26th)
349.4 (21th) YPG 302.9 (29th)
115.2 (15th) Rushing YPG 104.3 (22nd)
234.2 (20th) Passing YPG 198.6 (29th)
19.2 (2nd) PPG Allowed 25.5 (19th)
316.1 (4th) YPG Allowed 374.0 (21st)
80.8 (2nd) Rushing YPG Allowed 128.2 (27th)
235.3 (11th) Passing YPG Allowed 245.8 (16th)
+14 (T-1st) Turnover Differential -8 (27th)

Is There Any Value in Betting “No”?

Barring injury to Rodgers (and even if he is out), the Packers should enter the Jets game as a favorite, and they are 4-1 in that role this season. Of course, all those wins are at home.

If it does come down to the game in the Big Apple, what can the Jets truly offer as resistance? We don’t know if it’s a good or bad thing that rookie QB Sam Darnold is injured – as he currently leads the NFL in interceptions.

The Jets have just two wins at home through Week 11 and have scored 17 points or less in all of their losses.

YouTube video

Assuming the Pack handle Arizona and Atlanta these next two weeks, that Bears game will have a lot on the line. Despite Rodgers’ success against the Bears, Green Bay will still have to deal with game-changing force Khalil Mack leading a legit defense that ranks first in DVOA.

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If that results in a dispiriting loss and Green Bay has nothing left to play for, then there’s a path for you to bet the “NO.”

The Pick

If you’re feeling frisky, then you’re betting Green Bay has nothing to play for by the time they play the Jets. No harm in that, there’s good value there. Still, it’s a conservative play for me: I still hate betting against Aaron Rodgers, so this is a stay away for me, though I would bet “Yes” if I had to.

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