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Odds of a Quarterback Posting Perfect Passer Rating in Week 2 Set at +700

Could Patrick Mahomes deliver his first career perfect passer rating against the Raiders in Week 2? Photo from @NFL (Twitter).
  • Both Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott posted a perfect passer rating in Week 1
  • There have never been perfect passer ratings posted in back-to-back NFL weeks
  • Is there any reason to be making a bet for yes?

Perhaps nothing tells us its the passing era more than Week 1 of the NFL’s 100th season.

For the first time in the history of the game, we saw two quarterbacks post a perfect passer rating of 158.3 on the same day, a stat that’s as surprising as the two quarterbacks that completed the feat. Unless you can really pick a winner, your perfect pairing was likely nowhere near Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson.

BetOnline has created such a wager on seeing another such performance this week.

Perfect Passer Rating Odds NFL Week 2

Will There Be a Perfect Passer Rating in Week 2? Odds at BetOnline
Yes +700
No -1500

*Odds from 09/12/19

Since a perfect passer rating game has never happened in back-to-back weeks and not more than four times in a single season, let’s see if this is worth betting, and identifying the players that might be the ones to accomplish the feat.

Any QB Can Have a Perfect Day

While there are your usual suspects that dot the list of pivots who have posted a 158.3, there are plenty of names you’d never assume were on that list. It’s the one place where you can find Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill alongside Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Ben Roethlisberger has done it the most times in a career, posting four perfect games, including the only person to do it in the same season, with two in the 2007 campaign.

A stat developed in 1971,  the criteria to have a perfect day goes like this: a QB needs to attempt at least 10 passes, throw no interceptions, complete a minimum of 77.5% of passes, have 11.88% of those passes go for touchdowns, and the average yards per completion is a minimum 12.5.

Put those together, and you’re usually seeing big chunk play touchdowns, much like we witnessed in Jackson’s annihilation of the Dolphins (17-for-20, 324 yards, 5 TD) and Prescott’s carving of the Giants (25-for32, 405 yards, 4 TD).

QB Perfect Passer Rating Games since 2010

Player Team Year
Lamar Jackson BAL 2019
Dak Prescott DAL 2019
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 2018
Russell Wilson SEA 2018
Jared Goff LAR 2018
Kirk Cousins WAS 2015
Ryan Tannehill MIA 2015
Marcus Mariota TEN 2015
Geno Smith NYJ 2014
Alex Smith KC 2013
Nick Foles PHI 2013
Robert Griffin III WAS 2012
Tom Brady NE 2010

Who Could Post 158.3 in Week 2?

Ideally, you’d want to pit a good quarterback in a good offense against a weak defense for a legitimate shot at hitting that plateau. Fortunately, the NFL has those two types of teams in droves, and there are a list of great candidates that could give you a chance.

It’s only a matter of time before Patrick Mahomes makes that list, and why not Week 2? The Chiefs are going against the Raiders, and the reigning MVP lit them up in Week 12 last season to the tune of 23-for-38, 295 yards and four TDs. He’s already scorched what was expected to be a good Jaguars defense this season.

Tom Brady comes into Miami with an offense that’s as dangerous as the world-shattering 2007 team, and, barring legal issues, will be introducing Antonio Brown into the mix. Miami has already been burned to the ground at home, and perhaps a motivated Brady washes that two game losing skid to the Fins off his resume in a record-shattering performance.

Two others to look out for: Carson Wentz has a wobbly Falcons defense that was a non factor in a loss to the Vikings and Phil Rivers going into Motown to shred a less-than-stellar Lions defense that just surrendered 18 points in the fourth quarter to tie … the Cardinals.

What’s the Best Bet to Make?

The only value here is to bet the yes, but this mark isn’t exactly the easiest to achieve – a big reason why we didn’t see it happen in 2016 or 2017, with only single sightings in 2010, 2012 and 2014 as well.

It’s too volatile to predict, and for that reason I’d suggest staying away.

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