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Odds Say Jon Gruden’s Raiders Tenure is Short-Lived

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 6:57 PM PDT

Oakland Raiders head coach Jon Gruden
Raiders head coach Jon Gruden believes acquiring Antonio Brown was a big win for his team. Photo by Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire.
  • Jon Gruden’s second tenure with the Raiders may be short lived 
  • Can Chucky guide the Raiders to a Super Bowl appearance?
  • Does the head coach make it past next season?

This probably wasn’t the return to head coaching Jon Gruden or Raiders fans were expecting. Unfortunately, it’s been more of the same mediocrity that’s plagued the franchise for decades now.

Prior to their Week 7 bye, we last saw the Raiders get ripped by the Seahawks, in Oakland’s most lopsided loss of the year, dropping them to 1-5.


All they have to hang their hat on is a win over the Browns – a game Cleveland could argue they got jobbed out of.

With a move to Vegas looming, and a roster bereft of top talent, it’s already time to discuss Gruden’s staying power. Remember this dude inked a 10-year, $100 million deal to return to coaching.

Sportsbooks have joined the discussion, with some numbers for us to consider. Let’s do this.

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Odds Jon Gruden Will Lose His Job as Raiders Head Coach

When Will Jon Gruden Lose His Job Odds
Before End of 2019-20 Season +200
After End of 2019-20 Season -300

They’re giving Chucky the benefit of the doubt, at least to complete a second season with the Silver and Black. Much of that has to be based on the fact that Oakland will have three first round draft picks next year.

Of course, the reason they have those extra picks is due to trading all-world linebacker Khalil Mack, who is currently in the running for NFL Defensive player of the Year, just prior to the start of the season. The other is the most recent deal, shipping promising receiver Amari Cooper to the Cowboys.

If Gruden hits on those picks, he could have himself some nice cornerstones to add to Derek Carr. If they are not impact picks and the Raiders falter again, this marriage could end early.

The pick:  After end of 2019-20 Season (-300)

Odds Jon Gruden Takes the Raiders to the Super Bowl

Yes No
+500 -900

As of this season, there’s about a 1000% percent chance that you’d lean towards the no, and who could blame you? But we’re just a few years removed from Oakland coming out of nowhere to post a 12-4 mark. If not for Carr breaking his leg at the end of the regular season, the Raiders could have been in business.

Again, much will depend on Gruden’s roster building ability, which currently appears lackluster. But the NFL prides itself on parity, and let’s be honest: if you can make the playoffs, you’ve got a legit shot.

If he can survive the lean times, he’ll have plenty of shots to make it. I’m playing the long game here, folks.

The pick: Yes (+500)

Odds Jon Gruden Wins a Super Bowl with the Raiders

Yes No
+700 -1400

While I do think there’s a value bet in making the game, it’s that much harder to win the whole thing.

And here’s what might be the kiss of death, or the eventual breakthrough that needs to happen, depending on your perspective: no head coach has yet to lead two different franchises to Super Bowl titles.

If he were to get there, Gruden would find himself on quite a short and elite coaching list: Don Shula, Dick Vermeil, Bill Parcells, Dan Reeves, Mike Holmgren, and John Fox. I don’t think he’s going to be the first name on a new list, though.

The Pick: No (-1400)

Odds Jon Gruden Resigns or Gets Fired

Scenario Odds
Jon Gruden Resigns -120
Jon Gruden Gets Fired -120

Sportsbooks saved the best one of the bunch for last, and it’s a toss up.

In Gruden’s first stint with the Raiders, he forced his way out of Oakland and Al Davis eventually dealt him to the Buccaneers for two first round picks, two second round picks, and some cold, hard cash.

Gruden would win a Super Bowl with Tampa Bay, but when that run soured, he was fired and found his way into the Monday Night Football booth.

Gruden will be able to control his own fate for the first time in his career, and be able to walk away on his own terms.

Chucky has had many offers to return to coaching over the years, and it appears he made sure that he would have some type of control over personnel and front office decisions when he did.

With that sort of leverage, if he can find any type of success next year, he could control his own fate for the first time in his career. Crashing and burning, however, leaves him susceptible to getting axed.

Again, it’s all contingent on getting things righted on the field. As always, winning seems to cure all ills.

The pick: Jon Gruden Resigns (-120)

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