- The Kansas City Chiefs opened up as 2.5-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round on Sunday (Jan. 23rd, 6:30 pm ET)
- KC beat Buffalo last year in the AFC Championship game, while the Bills knocked off the Chiefs in Kansas City during the regular season
- Read below for analysis on which way the line will move ahead of kickoff
With all due respect to the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals, next week’s Buffalo Bills versus Kansas City Chiefs Divisional Round matchup is the defacto AFC Championship Game.
The two offensive juggernauts met last season for the right to advance to the Super Bowl, with the Chiefs coming out on top 38-24.
Bills vs Chiefs Opening Odds
|Buffalo Bills||+124||+2.5 (-110)||O 53.5 (-110)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-146||-2.5 (-110)||U 53.5 (-110)|
Odds as of Jan. 16th at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Kansas City opened up as a 2.5-point home favorite, in a game that features a total of 53.5. These two teams met earlier in the regular season in KC, with Buffalo prevailing 38-20, also as a 2.5-point underdog.
As alluded to off the top, the Bengals and the Titans make up the other AFC Divisional Round matchup, with Tennessee opening up as a 3-point home favorite.
Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis
The Bills made a statement Saturday in the Wild Card Round, handing Bill Belichick the worst playoff defeat of his career. Buffalo smashed New England 47-17, which marked the second most points and the second largest margin of victory in Bills playoff history.
JOSH ALLEN MAGIC 🪄
— PFF (@PFF) January 16, 2022
Josh Allen was a machine throwing for 308 yards and 5 TD, while Buffalo became the first team in the Super Bowl era to score on its first seven possessions that didn’t involve a kneel down.
The Buffalo Bills just had the NFL’s first ever perfect offensive game.
No punts. No picks. No fumbles lost. No field goals. All touchdowns on every single drive until the kneel downs.
And they did it against a top five defense.
— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) January 16, 2022
The Bills put up 482 yards of offense against the Pats, the league’s fourth highest graded defense per DVOA, and didn’t punt once. Devin Singletary ran for two scores and 81 yards, giving him three straight multi-touchdown games.
Defensively, Buffalo sacked rookie Mac Jones three times and picked him off twice, holding New England to 305 total yards.
Bills-Chiefs in the late Sunday game next week pic.twitter.com/KeXY1GD3to
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 17, 2022
The Bills finished the season with four straight victories and were one of the hottest teams entering the postseason. They finished second in overall DVOA, and first on the defensive side of the ball.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis
Buffalo wasn’t the only AFC team that made an emphatic statement in the Wild Card Round. The Chiefs throttled the Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21, scoring a TD on six straight possessions at one point, while ending Ben Roethlisberger’s career on a losing note.
Patrick Mahomes was incredible, throwing for 404 yards and 5 TD. The former MVP completed 30-of-39 attempts, five of which went to Travis Kelce for 108 yards.
Patrick Mahomes threw 5 Pass TD in a span of 10:30 of game time. It's easily the fastest span in NFL postseason history.
The next fastest? Tom Brady did it in just under 25 minutes in 2011.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 17, 2022
Kelce caught a touchdown and threw another, as the Chiefs piled up 478 yards on offense. Four different players hauled in scores, including offensive lineman Nick Allegretti.
Defensively, KC limited Big Ben to 215 passing yards, and the Steelers to just 275 total yards. They racked up two sacks and recovered a fumble, holding Pittsburgh to a measly 3.9 yards per play.
After struggling on defense to start the season, the Chiefs appear to have turned the corner on that side of the ball. They yielded 24 points or less in 10 of their final 13 games after coughing up 38 to Buffalo in Week 5.
— #SuperWildCard Weekend on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 17, 2022
On the injury front, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire missed the game with a shoulder injury, while his backup Darrel Williams, who was dealing with a toe injury, barely played. Enter Jerick McKinnon, who converted a season-high 18 touches into 142 total yards and a touchdown.
Bills vs Chiefs Line Movement
Don’t hold your breath waiting for this line to move leading up to kickoff. This was the exact number their previous meeting closed at, and if the line ever moved to Chiefs -3, the buy back would be instant.
Stefon Diggs watched the Chiefs celebrate on the field after their victory in the AFC title game…
He and the Bills will get their chance at redemption next Sunday 👀 pic.twitter.com/nJTHz4eCam
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) January 17, 2022
These are the two best teams in the AFC, and if you put this game on a neutral field, it really would be a coin flip. Home field has traditionally been worth 3 points, but 2.5-points in this instance feels just right.