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Opening Odds to Lead NFL in Passing in 2020 – Brees Given Slight Edge Over Mahomes

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Apr 8, 2020 · 4:45 PM PDT

Drew Brees about to pass
New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is favored lead the NFL in passing yardage during the 2020 season. Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker (Flickr).
  • New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is the +500 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage in 2020
  • A seven-time leader, Brees is slightly ahead of Patrick Mahomes (+600) of the Kansas City Chiefs
  • Below, find analysis of the odds and predictions on the top contenders

Online sportsbooks list New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees as the +500 favorite to top the NFL in passing yardage this season. Mahomes, QB of the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, is the second-favorite at +600.

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons, and Tom Brady of the Tampa Buccaneers are clumped together at +800. That means three of the top five contenders will be throwing the football for NFC South teams this season.

Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards in 2020

Quarterback Team Odds
Drew Brees Saints +500
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs +600
Tom Brady Buccaneers +800
Aaron Rodgers Packers +800
Matt Ryan Falcons +800
Lamar Jackson Ravens +1000
Dak Prescott Cowboys +1000
Jared Goff Rams +1200
Kyler Murray Cardinals +1200
Russell Wilson Seahawks +1600
Carson Wentz Eagles +2000
Jimmy Garoppolo 49ers +2500
Philip Rivers Colts +2500
Matthew Stafford Lions +2500
Derek Carr Raiders +3300
Baker Mayfield Browns +3300
Deshaun Watson Texans +3300
Kirk Cousins Vikings +4000
Ryan Fitzpatrick Dolphins +4000
Ben Roethlisberger Steelers +4000
Jameis Winston Free Agent +4000
Josh Allen Bills +5000
Teddy Bridgewater Panthers +2500
Andy Dalton Bengals +5000
Sam Darnold Jets +5000
Daniel Jones Giants +5000
Ryan Tannehill Texans +5000
Nick Foles Bears +6600
Mitchell Trubisky Bears +6600
Drew Lock Broncos +8000
Gardner Minshew Jaguars +8000
Jarrett Stidham Patriots +8000
Dwayne Haskins Redskins +15000
Tyrod Taylor Chargers +15000

Odds taken April 8th. 

Of this group of five, only Brady and Brees have previously led the league in total passing yardage.

Big Difference In A Year

Last season, the smart money was backing Mahomes to win the passing yardage title. He, Ryan and Andrew Luck of the Colts opened as co-favorites at +400. Luck, of course, announced his retirement just prior to the start of the regular season.

Rodgers (+650) and Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers (+750) were next in line, followed by Brees at +1200. Both Brees and Roethlisberger would see their seasons disrupted by injury.

Eventual champion Jameis Winston, then of Tampa Bay, was offered at opening odds of +1600.

Brees Looks To Bounce Back

Brees is a seven-time passing yardage champion. He’s gone over 5,000 yards five times during his career. He’s the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yardage (77,416).

The Saints QB has regressed four seasons in a row, though. Brees passed for 5,208 yards when he won his most recent title in 2016. That was followed by 4,334 in 2017 and 3,992 in 2018.

Last season, Brees threw for 2,979 yards in 11 games. Prorated over a 16-game season, that works out to 4,334 yards.

He’s also 41 years old.

Great Price On Past Champs

Also looking for a comeback campaign, Roethlisberger comes at a price of +4000. He won this title in 2018.

Defending champ Winston is also offered at odds of +4000. The biggest issue in his case is whether he will find a team. The free-agent QB hasn’t been picked up yet.

Should You Bet On Brady?

At +800, Brady’s new world begins with the Bucs. He’ll be flinging to a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

Brady is also working within the same offensive scheme that produced Winston’s league-leading 5,109-yard campaign in 2019.

Stand With Pat

Last season, Mahomes joined Len Dawson as the only Chiefs QBs to win the Super Bowl. This year, he’ll do something that no Chiefs QB has ever done. He’ll lead the NFL in passing yardage.

Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards in 2018 and was just nipped for the title by Roethlisberger. Last year in 14 games, he passed for 4,031 yards.

He’s the best QB in the NFL right now, and this year, Mahomes will wear the passing yardage crown.

Pick: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) +600

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