- New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees is the +500 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage in 2020
- A seven-time leader, Brees is slightly ahead of Patrick Mahomes (+600) of the Kansas City Chiefs
- Below, find analysis of the odds and predictions on the top contenders
Online sportsbooks list New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees as the +500 favorite to top the NFL in passing yardage this season. Mahomes, QB of the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, is the second-favorite at +600.
Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers, Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons, and Tom Brady of the Tampa Buccaneers are clumped together at +800. That means three of the top five contenders will be throwing the football for NFC South teams this season.
Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards in 2020
|Jameis Winston||Free Agent||+4000|
Odds taken April 8th.
Of this group of five, only Brady and Brees have previously led the league in total passing yardage.
Big Difference In A Year
Last season, the smart money was backing Mahomes to win the passing yardage title. He, Ryan and Andrew Luck of the Colts opened as co-favorites at +400. Luck, of course, announced his retirement just prior to the start of the regular season.
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) April 8, 2020
Rodgers (+650) and Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers (+750) were next in line, followed by Brees at +1200. Both Brees and Roethlisberger would see their seasons disrupted by injury.
Eventual champion Jameis Winston, then of Tampa Bay, was offered at opening odds of +1600.
Brees Looks To Bounce Back
Brees is a seven-time passing yardage champion. He’s gone over 5,000 yards five times during his career. He’s the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yardage (77,416).
The Saints QB has regressed four seasons in a row, though. Brees passed for 5,208 yards when he won his most recent title in 2016. That was followed by 4,334 in 2017 and 3,992 in 2018.
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) April 8, 2020
Last season, Brees threw for 2,979 yards in 11 games. Prorated over a 16-game season, that works out to 4,334 yards.
He’s also 41 years old.
Great Price On Past Champs
Also looking for a comeback campaign, Roethlisberger comes at a price of +4000. He won this title in 2018.
"What a play by Roethlisberger!"
— #FootballWeekNBCSN (@SNFonNBC) April 5, 2020
Defending champ Winston is also offered at odds of +4000. The biggest issue in his case is whether he will find a team. The free-agent QB hasn’t been picked up yet.
Should You Bet On Brady?
At +800, Brady’s new world begins with the Bucs. He’ll be flinging to a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
Now available from the Buccaneers’ team store: Tom Brady jerseys in their new look. pic.twitter.com/ooiOibFqLJ
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 7, 2020
Brady is also working within the same offensive scheme that produced Winston’s league-leading 5,109-yard campaign in 2019.
Stand With Pat
Last season, Mahomes joined Len Dawson as the only Chiefs QBs to win the Super Bowl. This year, he’ll do something that no Chiefs QB has ever done. He’ll lead the NFL in passing yardage.
Patrick Mahomes was accurate on 68.9% of his third down passes last season, 91 of 132 attempts. pic.twitter.com/3rmbz9K07o
— QB Data Mine (@QBDataMine) April 7, 2020
Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards in 2018 and was just nipped for the title by Roethlisberger. Last year in 14 games, he passed for 4,031 yards.
He’s the best QB in the NFL right now, and this year, Mahomes will wear the passing yardage crown.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) +600