Opening Odds for Patriots vs Broncos AFC Championship Game – Denver an Underdog Without Nix
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
- The opening AFC Championship Game odds list the Denver Broncos as home underdogs
- Denver will be without starting QB Bo Nix, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the Divisional Round
- See the opening Patriots vs Broncos odds (spread, moneyline, total) for the AFC title game
The 2026 AFC Championship Game will feature the New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos at 3:00 pm ET, Sunday, January 25th, from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO.
Some of the sting has been taken out of the AFC title game after the top-seeded Denver Broncos (15-3, 9-1 home, 8-9-1 ATS) witnessed QB1 Bo Nix suffer a season-ending ankle injury in their 33-30 OT win over Buffalo.
With inexperienced backup Jarrett Stidham slated to take the reins of the offense (against the team that drafted him, no less), Denver has opened as a sizable home underdog against the #2 New England Patriots (16-3, 8-0 away, 13-6 ATS) in the 2026 AFC title game.
Opening Patriots vs Broncos Odds
The Patriots vs Broncos odds have opened with New England as a 4.5-point favorite and -225 on the moneyline at FanDuel. The Broncos come back as +188 home underdogs. The total is sitting at 40.5 with -110 odds both ways.
DraftKings was a little more tepid on the Patriots and optimistic about Stidham and the Broncos, initially listing New England at -210 and Denver at +180 in the opening AFC Championship Game odds. However, immediately after the line was posted, the Patriots were bet down to -250 with the Broncos ballooning to +205.
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The Broncos are playing in their first AFC Championship Game since Peyton Manning and Von Miller led the team to a Super Bowl 50 victory in 2015-16. The Patriots haven’t been in the AFC title game since 2018, and are making their first postseason appearance since the Tom Brady era.
The Patriots have the second-best Super Bowl 60 odds at +250, while the Broncos are +1000 longshots (or worse), by far the longest odds of the five remaining teams, which will be whittled to four after the Rams vs Bears game on Sunday night.
NE vs DEN: H2H Statistical Comparison
The Broncos have a slight edge in defensive metrics, while the Pats have been considerably better on offense, a discrepancy which is expected to grow now that Nix is out.
The Patriots and Broncos didn’t play this season or last, so there is no relevant history between the teams. Neither quarterback has ever faced the opposing defense.
Bookmark SBD’s NFL odds page to see up-to-the-minute lines for every NFL playoff game, and our NFL public betting percentages to see where the sharp money is going.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
