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Over/Under Average Annual Value of Dak Prescott’s Next Contract Set at $32.5 Million

Angelo Montilla

by Angelo Montilla in NFL Football

Updated Mar 26, 2020 · 11:30 AM UTC

Dak Prescott celebrating with his offensive linemen after scoring a TD
Dak Prescott's asking price would make him the highest-paid player in the league. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr)
  • Prescott is asking for $40M per year, which would make him the highest paid QB in NFL
  • The fourth-year pivot  has never reached 4,000 passing yards in a season
  • Russell Wilson is currently the highest paid QB at $35M AAV

Dak Prescott is looking to become the highest-paid quarterback in the National Football League.

According to the NFL Network’s Jane Slater, the Dallas Cowboys QB recently turned down a $30-million per year extension and is seeking an annual average value (AAV) somewhere in the ballpark of $40M.

If granted, it would make Prescott the highest-earning quarterback in the NFL by $5 million — surpassing Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, who is making $35 million per season.

The question now becomes whether the Dallas Cowboys really believe Prescott is a $40-million man.

How Much Will Dak Prescott’s Next Contract Be Worth (by AAV)?

Projected AAV Over Odds Under Odds
$32.5 Million -120 -120

*Odds as of 08/12/2019.

The initial over/under odds on Prescott’s next contract set the AAV line at $32.5 million, well below his asking price.

Prescott is entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract and will have to significantly improve from his 2018 numbers in order to justify the mega-deal he’s seeking. Prescott played all 16 regular-season games for a third consecutive year. However, he only had 22 TDs and 3,885 passing yards — falling under the 4,000 mark for a third straight season.

Prescott was also sacked 56 times, which was a 14-sack increase from the 2017 NFL season.

The $30-million deal the Cowboys offered would put Prescott in the same category as Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons. By comparison, Ryan had more passing yards (4,924), TD passes (35) and a better passer rating (108.1).

Top Earning Quarterbacks in 2019

Player Team AAV of Contract
Russell Wilson Seattle Seahawks $35 Million
Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh Steelers $34 Million
Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers $33.5 Million
Carson Wentz Philadelphia Eagles $32 Million
Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons $30 Million
Kirk Cousins Minnesota Vikings $28 Million
Jimmy Garoppolo San Francisco 49ers $27.5 Million
Matthew Stafford Detroit Lions $27 Million
Drew Brees New Orleans Saints $25 Million
Derek Carr Oakland Raiders $25 Million

Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers is the second-highest paid quarterback at $34 million AAV, followed by the Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers at $33 million.

Slater reported that, although Prescott is demanding $40M per year, the agreed-upon contract will likely fall into the $34M to $35M range.

The Cowboys will have to watch their salary cap dollars closely with Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott, and wide receiver Amari Cooper all on expiring contracts over the next two seasons.

While Prescott and Cooper have been competing in Cowboys camp, Elliott is holding out to add more leverage in the negotiation process.

Under Prescott, the Cowboys have posted a 32-16 record and have made the playoffs on two occasions. But during that span, Dallas hasn’t made a real push for a Super Bowl title.

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Letting the Cowboys pivot play out the contract and reassess may be a route the franchise is willing to go. However, a deep playoff run will only increase the chances Prescott will make $40 million per year.

That may be something the Cowboys are not willing to chance and the more likely scenario is Russell Wilson-type money at $35 million per year.

Pick: Over $32.5 million (-120)

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