- Sunday’s matchup is a battle of division-leading juggernauts in the NFC
- The Packers, as underdogs, are seeing 75 percent of ATS money
- Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below
On the surface, Sunday’s matchup between the Green Bay Packers (3-1) and the Dallas Cowboys (3-1) appears to be a case in which something’s gotta give: both teams lead their respective divisions and have covered in three of their four games. The host Cowboys, undefeated in two games so far at AT&T Stadium, have been given the edge by oddsmakers.
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds
|Green Bay Packers||+148||+3.0 (-101)||Over 47.0 (-105)|
|Dallas Cowboys||-170||-3.0 (-119)||Under 47.0 (-115)|
*Odds taken 10/05/19
Yet for some reason, 75% of against-the-spread (ATS) money — and 60% of ATS bets — is on Green Bay, according to sports betting data. Both teams have their flaws, as you can see upon reviewing the Packers vs. Cowboys odds, so such a substantial lean in favor of the Packers is worth questioning.
The Davante Deficit
Even with a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers leading the way, Green Bay’s offense has been average at best so far this year, ranking 20th in total yards per game (337.8 per game) and 17th in points (21.2 per game). The one constant for Rodgers has been top receiving target Davante Adams, who went off for a career-high 180 yards last week.
180 yards on 10 catches.
— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2019
But Adams left early with a toe injury and has been ruled out for Sunday’s game. That’s a major blow, considering more than a third of Rodgers’ passing yards this year have gone to Adams. It’s tough to see a patchwork group led by Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison truly picking up the slack.
Running back Jamaal Williams (concussion), is also out for Sunday. He suffered a vicious hit against the Eagles last week. That fact that he was even in consideration for the upcoming game is a positive sign that his injury isn’t as bad as it could’ve been.
Derek Barnett just injured Jamaal Williams. Scary hit pic.twitter.com/IHQP0d5pFI
— Jordan Dajani (@JordanDajani) September 27, 2019
Without Williams, the Packers only have two running backs on their roster: Aaron Jones and rookie Dexter Williams, who has yet to play a down in the NFL. Green Bay has rushed for fewer than 80 yards in three of four games.
Dallas’ Big Man a Big Loss
Part of Dallas’ potent rushing offense has been the presence of six-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith. But Smith won’t play Sunday due to an ankle injury.
— Joe Trahan (@JoeTrahan) September 30, 2019
For a Green Bay defense that’s allowing five yards per carry (fourth-worst in the league), that should help.
Cowboys have Benefitted from a Weak Schedule
Yes, the Cowboys are 3-1. But the teams they’ve played (Giants, Redskins, Dolphins and Saints) have a combined record of 5-11.
Look a little deeper, and you’ll see another trend — the quarterbacks they’ve faced have all been flawed: Eli Manning (who has since been benched), Case Keenum (has struggled in recent weeks and is now hurt), Josh Rosen (was making his first start for the hapless Dolphins) and Teddy Bridgewater (backup playing in place of the injured Drew Brees).
"The Cowboys have played who? Ok, they beat Eli Manning — benched; Case Keenum — about to be benched; Josh Rosen … about to be on his 3rd team after this year." — @ShannonSharpe pic.twitter.com/bEenkBqIYx
— UNDISPUTED (@undisputed) September 24, 2019
Aaron Rodgers brings something the Cowboys haven’t seen yet this year. No, he doesn’t have his top target, but he’s notorious for spreading the ball around anyway (case and point: none of his six touchdown passes this year went to Adams).
With a three-point cushion ATS, it’s no wonder the Packers have been a popular choice this week.
Pick: Packers +3.0 (-101)