Panthers vs Buccaneers Predictions & Closing Lines (Jan 3)

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-point home favorites vs the Carolina Panthers in Week 18
• A Carolina win clinches the NFC South title and a playoff berth
• Keep reading for updated Panthers vs Buccaneers closing odds, predictions and picks

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It’s win and you’re in for the Carolina Panthers (8-8, 3-5 away), who can clinch the NFC South crown and a playoff berth with a win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9, 3-4).

Tampa’s only hope is to beat the Panthers, then turn into the biggest New Orleans Saints fans, who need to beat Atlanta (a team long since eliminated from the postseason) to push them into the playoffs.

Despite staggering down the home stretch, the books still have the Buccaneers as heavy road favorites in the NFL odds.

Kickoff is set for 4:30pm ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL, with ABC and ESPN carrying the broadcast.

Panthers vs Buccaneers Picks & Prediction

• Under 43.5 (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Heading into their Week 9 bye, Tampa Bay was 6-2, and QB Baker Mayfield was firmly entrenched as a favorite in the NFL MVP odds. And then, the wheels fell off.

The Bucs have just one win in their last eight, and they’ve lost four straight to fall two games under .500, allowing the Panthers to sneak into the playoff picture.

Their latest loss was a 20-17 letdown in Miami. Not including their 23-20 loss to Carolina, who’s still in the playoff chase, their other three losses were to teams far removed from postseason play.

Baker Mayfield throws it down field but it's intercepted by the Dolphins!

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/PvCEuTynk0

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 28, 2025

There’s plenty of blame to go around, including a pass defense that’s seventh-worst in the NFL, but a lot falls on Mayfield, whose play has been far below average.

He’s thrown for less than 200 yards in five of his last eight starts, and has thrown eight interceptions in his last seven starts, against just nine TD tosses.

The offense has suffered greatly, scoring 20 or fewer points in five of the last six games.

If only it were as easy as saying this was the Panthers’ to take, but they haven’t been setting things on fire either.

Carolina has alternated wins and losses in each of its last 10 starts, including getting blasted 27-10 at home to Seattle, a game that could have clinched the division with a win.

Bryce Young failed to complete a pass over five air yards against the Seahawks on Sunday. 0 for 4 with an INT on such attempts.

Young is only the third QB of the last 20 seasons to attempt at least 20 passes but have 0 completions beyond five yards downfield in a game.

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) December 29, 2025

QB Bryce Young is light years away from the rookie that looked like a colossal No. 1 overall pick bust, but he’s still a work in progress. His 54 pass yards against Seattle was a season low, and he’s thrown for less than 170 yards in five of his last eight starts.

Carolina is scoring just 18.1 points per game this season, which ranks 27th in the NFL. They finished Under the total in three straight, including their win against Tampa.

The Bucs have cashed the Under in four of their last six, and with everything on the line, this looks like a slug fest to claim the final spot.

Panthers vs Buccaneers Closing Lines

Closing in on that 4:30pm ET kickoff and Tampa is sitting as a -150 moneyline favorite over at BetMGM. Anyone wanting the Panthers to win outright gets +132 odds at FanDuel.

The Panthers are 3-point underdogs at Caesars at -117 odds, while DraftKings has set the Bucs as 2.5-point favorites at -127.

For those betting the Over, bet365 has the total at 43 points, while Under bettors can grab an extra half point from DraftKings.

The interactive table above will automatically update as the NFL betting odds move over the course of the day.

CAR Panthers vs TB Buccaneers Line Movement

Perhaps its the inconsistency on both teams, but the books have strictly kept this line inside the 2.5 to 3.5-point range with with very little deviation outside of those numbers.

Carolina was as long as +160 on the moneyline, but that’s shortened to the +130 range, while Tampa’s shortest line has moved from -200 in and around the -150 range.

The total opened at 44.5 points, but has since come down to sit inside 43 to 43.5 points.

Most bet on #NFL Anytime TD Scorers in Panthers vs Bucs at @DKSportsbook 🏈

1. Rico Dowdle (+120)
2. Mike Evans (+160)
3. Bucky Irving (+155)
4. Tetairoa McMillan (+165)
5. Sean Tucker(+240) pic.twitter.com/3eaAQYufzf

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) January 3, 2026

The NFL public betting percentages are split, liking Tampa to win outright, with 62% of the bets and 57% of the money but liking Carolina to cover with three points. That’s getting 68% of the bets and 71% of the money.

The most lopsided bets though, are on the total, with 75% of bets and 72% of the money taking the Over at 43 points.

CAR vs TB Betting Trends

• Each of the last five head-to-head matchups between these teams in Tampa have gone Over the total
• The Panthers have covered the spread in each of their last nine games following a loss
• The Buccaneers have lost each of their last four games as favorites
• The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS at home this season
• Carolina has eight wins as an underdog this year, tied for the most in a single season in the Super Bowl era