Patrick Mahomes’ NFL MVP Odds Improve to +800 After Possibility of Early Return

• Poised to make an early return from a recent knee injury, Patrick Mahomes has rebounded to +800 in the NFL MVP odds
• The reigning NFL MVP led the league in passing yards prior to being felled by injury in Week 7
• Mahomes now lags behind MVP favorites Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson

With Patrick Mahomes looking increasingly likely to return to action when Kansas City hosts the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in a Week 9 matchup at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs quarterback has rebounded in the NFL MVP odds, vaulting to +800.

Mahomes had been the favorite for the majority of the 2019 season until his injury knocked him out of action for the past two weeks.

Odds to Win 2019 NFL MVP

Odds taken October 30th

Mahomes Poised to Make Early Return

The reigning NFL MVP saw his season put at risk by a gruesome looking knee injury suffered in Kansas City’s 30-6 win in Denver in Week 7.

Initially expected to be on the shelf for at least three weeks, Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds tumbled to a season-worst +1200 ahead of last weekend’s 31-24 loss to the visiting Green Bay Packers, well back of the short -120 odds he sported in the wake of the Chiefs’ 34-30 win in Detroit in Week 4.

Pat Mahomes will practice for the Chiefs again today.

— Adam Teicher (@adamteicher) October 30, 2019

A limited participant last week, Mahomes was expected to return to practice with the Chiefs. However, with Chiefs head coach Andy Reid publicly stating his intention not to rush the 24-year-old back into action, a final decision on Mahomes’ status for Sunday will likely not be known until later in the week.

Moore’s Steady Play Provides Chiefs with Options

Reid enjoys some flexibility in his decision after seeing veteran backup Matt Moore perform last weekend. The 38-year-old turned in a solid performance in his first NFL start in almost two years, tossing for 267 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a losing effort, and looks well positioned to carry the offense for one more week, if necessary.

But even if Mahomes’ return is delayed until the Chiefs’ Week 10 road matchup with the Tennessee Titans, he will likely have plenty of time left on the schedule to close the gap on current favorites Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, who sport +225 and +275 odds, respectively.

Matt Moore with the absolute 🎯 to Travis Kelce for 6 🙌

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/r1C3TEcbHP

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 28, 2019

With a challenging schedule facing the Chiefs over the second half of the campaign, Mahomes’ early return will be welcomed. In addition to the Vikings, who have surrendered fewer than 18 points per game during a four-game SU win streak, the Chiefs also face a tough road date with the New England Patriots, who have averaged 40 points per game in consecutive wins over Kansas City.

In addition, the Chiefs also look forward to a Week 16 clash in Chicago, where they have failed to record a win since 1990.

Closing Gap on Rodgers a Tall Order

Mahomes will likely need a little help in his bid to return to the top of the MVP odds. Some of that will come courtesy of the Seattle Seahawks’ difficult second-half schedule that will test Wilson’s bid.

After this weekend’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle looks forward to meetings with the Vikings and Los Angeles Rams, and two dates with the undefeated San Francisco 49ers.

The Green Bay Packers enjoy an easier road that could solidify Rodgers’ position as the favorite to win a third career NFL MVP award, with four of their remaining contests coming against losing teams.

Playoffs Remain the Priority in Kansas City

Whether it is against the Vikings or in Week 10 in Tennessee, Mahomes’ return to action will be met positively at the sportsbooks, and likely an immediate boost in his odds to win MVP.

Prior to his injury, Mahomes was leading the NFL in passing yards, and has tossed 15 touchdown passes against just one pick this season, making his current position at +800 a solid value bet.

Chiefs win their 1st home playoff game since January of 1994… ending a playoff record 6 straight home losses. The new era begins with The Ferrari wiping away a quarter century of post season failures pic.twitter.com/E19LqajybM

— trey wingo (@wingoz) January 13, 2019

But with the Chiefs currently enjoying a comfortable lead atop the AFC West standings, and the most important goal in Kansas City being all about playoff success, the priority will remain having Mahomes at 100% for the playoffs, which will likely temper any subsequent rise on the odds board.