- Patriots and Bills meet in Week 4 in a matchup of two 3-0 teams
- Both clubs 2-1 against the spread this season
- Injury to Julian Edelman could have effect on point spread for Week 4 matchup
Another week, another win for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.
Following New England’s Week 3 victory to move to 3-0 on the season, sportsbooks released their opening Patriots vs. Bills odds and listed the defending Super Bowl champs as 7-point favorites.
Will the Pats cover the spread or can the undefeated Bills keep their perfect season intact?
Patriots vs Bills Odds
|New England Patriots||-7 (-116)||N/A||O 44 (-105)|
|Buffalo Bills||-7 (-104)||N/A||U 44 (-115)|
*Odds taken September 22
The point spread opened at 6.5 but moved slightly on the board after the Patriots defeated the Jets, to improve to 3-0 and stay on top of the AFC East Division.
Books also released money lines for the Week 4 matchup, listing the Pats as -320 favorites and giving the Bills very enticing +270 odds. The opening total points line has also been set to 44.
— Josh Allen Facts (@joshallen_facts) September 22, 2019
The Patriots have dominated at both ends of the field up to this point of the NFL season. The Brady-led offense ranks second overall in total points (76) and seventh in yards (844) through three games this season.
New England hasn’t exactly played playoff-caliber teams so far, with wins against the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets. Conversely, the Bills haven’t faced a powerhouse NFL team like the Pats either. Buffalo earned its three wins against the Jets, Giants and Bengals.
— Jon Scott (@JonScottTV) September 22, 2019
However, Buffalo, which has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, presents the biggest challenge for Brady and the Patriots heading into a highly anticipated Week 4 matchup.
The Bills are averaging 198 passing yards against per game, which is the sixth-fewest among NFL teams. The Pats defense is not far behind in that stat — ranking ninth with 209.0 passing yards against through three games.
— ESPN (@espn) September 22, 2019
Spread Will Likely Move
There will likely be further movement on the opening 7-point line set out, especially with the latest injury to Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman.
Edelman suffered a chest injury that knocked him out of the game in the last minute of the first half Sunday. Although X-rays on Edelman’s chest came back negative, there’s still a chance last year’s Super Bowl MVP could miss some action.
If Edelman is out for an extended period of time and will miss Sunday’s game against the Bills, look for the point spread to drop further.
Both of these teams are 2-1 against the spread this season — Buffalo covering both games on the road but falling short of -5.5 in its home victory over the Bengals.
Patriots Strong Against the Spread
The Patriots, meanwhile, are 1-0 ATS on the road and are 1-1 at Gillette Stadium this season.
The head-to-head numbers against the spread also haven’t been kind to the Bills, who are 1-2 against the Pats over their last three meetings. In fact, the Pats have covered the spread six of the last 10 games against the Bills.
However, put the head-to-head records away for this game.
Yes, the Bills are 2-8 against the Pats over their last 10 meetings and are winless in the last three. But there’s something different about this Buffalo team — primarily its solid defense.
Playing on home field will also spark the Bills, who are ranked ninth in total yards per game average this season (379.0).
The Bills will keep this game very close and could very well pull out a close victory over the Pats — its first since 2016 when Buffalo blanked NE 16-0.
Pick: Buffalo Bills +7 (-104)
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