Patriots vs Broncos Betting Picks, Predictions, Line Movement & Splits

• Back Jarrett Stidham leads the Broncos against MVP candidate Drake Maye and the Patriots
• The Patriots vs Broncos initially moved towards New England but lately shifted towards Denver
• See my top Patriots vs Broncos picks and predictions, plus line movement and splits

The AFC Championship stage is set as the New England Patriots (16-3, 8-0 away, 12-6 ATS) travel to face the Denver Broncos (15-3, 9-1 home, 7-11 ATS) at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, January 25. Kickoff is set for 3:00 pm ET with CBS providing broadcast coverage.

With Bo Nix out and backup Jarrett Stidham slated to start in his place, the visiting Patriots opened as sizable road favorites over the shorthanded Broncos. Initially the odds moved even further in New England’s direction, but more recently there’s been considerable buyback on Denver, pushing the line lower than its opening number.

Can the Broncos rally at home despite their quarterback concerns? See my favorite Patriots vs Broncos picks, plus the latest odds movement and betting splits for the 2026 AFC Championship Game.

Patriots vs Broncos Prediction & Picks

ATS Pick: Patriots -4.0 (-110 at bet365)

New England had a much better offense than Denver in the regular season, and that was with Bo Nix at the helm for every game. New England averaged 5.2 more points per game and nearly 50 more yards per game, while turning the ball over less and converting more third downs.

Patriots vs Broncos Offensive Stats

Denver’s defense is legit, finishing fifth in D-DVOA and sixth in the PFF rankings. But New England’s defense wasn’t far behind, sitting seventh at PFF. Denver was third in scoring defense (311 points), just nine better than New England in fourth (320).

The Patriot defense has played two of its best games of the season in the playoffs, to boot. New England allowed just three points and a miniscule 207 total yards to the Chargers in the Wild Card. In the Divisional Round, the Pats held Houston to 16 points and 246 yards while generating five takeaways in inclement weather.

The Patriots/Broncos weather forecast projects similarly difficult conditions this Sunday.

Add in the fact that New England has been the best road team in the league all season, going a perfect 8-0 straight-up and 7-1 against the spread, and laying the points is the only logical play.

Game-Total Pick: Under 43.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Multiple factors point toward a defensive struggle:

• Postseason Red-Zone Struggles: Both the Patriots and Broncos have faltered inside the 20-yard line, scoring touchdowns on just 25.0% of their red-zone attempts
• Backup QB Impact: Stidham’s presence under center will force Denver into conservative play-calling

With both offensive units facing substantial obstacles to scoring in the difficult weather at Mile High, the under (43.5) offers strong value.

Best Player Prop: Stidham Over 0.5 Interceptions (-175 at BetMGM)

This represents the AFC Championship Game’s strongest prop bet. The Patriots’ defense has created significant pressure all season, including four interceptions last time out. Stidham, thrust into action without regular starting experience, faces an intense Patriots pass rush that has consistently forced critical mistakes.

For a backup quarterback making his season debut against a defense that thrives on creating havoc, at least one costly turnover appears inevitable. The -175 odds are fairly short (63.64% implied win probability) but still don’t properly reflect the likelihood.

NE Patriots vs DEN Broncos Odds & Line Movement

The opening Patriots vs Broncos odds listed New England as a 4.5-point road favorite and that line was quickly bet up to 5.5 in the hours after the line was first posted. But as of late Saturday, the number has dropped as far as NE -3.5 (-123) at DraftKings. On the moneyline, New England opened at -225 and is now as a market-best price of -218. The Broncos opened at +188 and are roughly at the same number, with bet365 offering the best DEN moneyline (+190).

The game total opened at 40.5 and has been steadily climbing, with DraftKings offering under 43.5 at -118. FanDuel has the best over number at 42.5 (-118). The 4.5-point spread indicates oddsmakers expect New England to win by approximately a touchdown, while the modest 43-point total suggests expectations for a defensive championship battle.

Based on current championship game moneyline odds, the vig-free probabilities are:

• New England Patriots: 65.9% implied win probability
• Denver Broncos: 34.1% implied win probability

Patriots vs Broncos Public-Betting Splits for AFC Title Game

The NFL public betting splits for the AFC title game clearly favor the New England Patriots, with recreational bettors heavily backing the favorites. However, examining the money distribution reveals potential disagreement between casual wagers and big-money bettors, particularly regarding the point spread and total.

AFC Championship Game betting breakdown:

• Moneyline: 61.32% of championship game handle backs New England to win outright
• Point Spread: Public money favors the Patriots covering -4.5, with 55.99% of championship wagers on the visitors
• Game Total: Bettors anticipate offensive fireworks, as 60.79% of championship money targets the Over 43

While recreational championship bettors are loading up on New England and the over, a notable split exists between bet percentage and money percentage on the spread. The Patriots are receiving over 71% of all championship spread bets, but this accounts for only 55.99% of the actual money wagered. This indicates larger, potentially sharper championship wagers are backing Denver +4.5.

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