Patriots vs Ravens Props: Sunday Night Football Week 9

• Week 9’s SNF matchup sees the (8-0) New England Patriots head to Baltimore to face the (5-2) Ravens
• How will the still-perfect Patriots fare in their first real test of the season?
• I took another one on the chin last week going 0-3 on prop bets, losing 4 units for a big -12.71 units on the year

With Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams doing all the damage last week against Kansas City, I should have fared fairly well. Only the Packers took advantage of the league’s 29th-ranked run defense with short passes to the RBs instead of just letting them take a handoff, leading to yet another crushing week for my bankroll.

Poker players, blackjack players, fantasy football players and all gamblers alike go through cold spells, but in order to find out what you’re made of, you gotta keep swinging. So let me take my best shot on a few interesting props for the Week 9 SNF matchup featuring two of the best teams in the AFC, as the 5-2 Ravens host the still undefeated 8-0 New England Patriots.

Prop #1: Most First Downs Odds

All odds taken Nov. 2

The Ravens and Patriots own two of the NFLs better defenses.  The Ravens’ corner group recently received a shot in the arm when the team traded for Marcus Peters, who didn’t fail to make an impact in his first game as a Raven. Along with the addition of Peters the Ravens will welcome back Jimmy Smith, who has been out of action since Week 1.  With these two solid corners on the field along side Marlon Humphrey the Ravens boast one of the most talented trios of corners in the league.

The Ravens lead the league in average time of possession and have the 6th-best third down conversion percentage, thanks in large part to dual threat Lamar Jackson. He’s  been able to keep defenses a little more honest with his passing improvements during his sophomore campaign.

Head-to-Head

The Patriots offensive and defensive numbers hold up pretty well against the Ravens as their defense is on an all-time pace and Tom Brady is leading a efficient offense once again in his age 42 season. The numbers may be a little misleading for the Pats though, as the toughest competition they have faced since dismantling the Steelers in Week 1 (when Ben Roethlisberger was still around) was last week’s underachieving Baker Mayfield-led Cleveland Browns, and a surprising Buffalo Bills squad who almost took them down in Week 4.

Pick: Ravens (+131)
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.31 units

Prop 2: Most Rushing Yards Odds

Sony Michel and Mark Ingram have been solid, if unspectacular contributors to their respective teams so far in 2019. Both rushers have had some success reaching paydirt with 13 rushing scores between them.

But let’s focus on the yardage aspect of their games. Michel has averaged 17.5 carries for 58 yards per game, an underwhelming 3.3 yards per carry. Ingram has only toted the rock an average of 14.1 times a game but has turned those touches into 67.1 rushing yards for a healthy 4.7 yards per rush. Ingram has been the more effective back on a per carry basis.

The Ravens’ run D relies on their beastly run stuffer Brandon Williams, as evidenced in the one game he missed back in Week 4 against the Browns, who let Nick Chubb run wild, to the tune of 165 yards on 20 carries. With the exception of the Browns game the Ravens defense is surrendering under 71 yardsa contest and hasn’t seen a team’s leading rusher exceed 65 yards.

Pick: Mark Ingram (+152)
Risk: 2 units to win 3.14 units

Prop 3: Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Odds

You don’t have to look far to see Lamar Jackson’s improvement as a passer in his second year. His completion percentage is up to a respectable 63.3% (a spike of better than 5%), while increasing his average yards per attempt by over a half yard.

The optimism and improvement have been somewhat marred the last few games with some struggles for the passing game. Jackson started the year on fire averaging 277.5 yards per game through the Ravens first four, while showing a promising relationship with rookie WR Marquise Brown.

In the last three games – the last two which Brown has missed – Jackson has seen his average passing production drop to 180 yards per game. The good new for the Ravens passing attack is they will be getting their explosive rookie WR back this week.

Juke man, Juke man, yeah that’s @Lj_era8❗️

(we really put all his best jukes in a video ?) pic.twitter.com/Q3x3WGEevo

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) October 25, 2019

The Patriots’ defense has been stingy against the pass this year, surrendering only 148.8 yards per game, which is second-best in the NFL. The Patriots’ defense has shown a little weakness against the run this year, with opponents averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

The Ravens just happen to own the league’s leading rushing attack, averaging 204.1 yards per game on the ground. The Patriots haven’t allowed an opposing QB to throw for over 200 yards since Week 1 and asking Jackson to exceed the Pats average of 148.8 passing yards against by 50 yards may be a tall order.

Pick: Under 197.5 (-114)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.75 units