Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks, Player Props & Closing Odds

• The Eagles visit the Buccaneers in a Week 4 battle between undefeated NFC teams
• Jalen Hurts faces a Todd Bowles defense that has historically given him fits with aggressive blitz packages
• See the Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers picks, player props, and closing odds on Sep. 28

The only matchup between unbeaten teams in Week 4 features the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0, 1-0 away, 2-1 ATS) visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0, 1-0 home, 2-1 ATS) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, at 1:00 pm ET on FOX. The weather forecast calls for a partly cloudy day with temperatures around 81°F and light winds, which should have minimal impact on the game.

The spotlight will be on the quarterback duel between Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield. Hurts has been efficient to start the season, posting a 71.4% completion rate and a 100.5 passer rating, though his production has been more methodical than explosive for the run-heavy Eagles. On the other side, Mayfield is playing some of the best football of his career and has been nearly mistake-free through three games, throwing six TD passes and zero interceptions.

This preview will break down the Eagles vs Buccaneers odds, set out the main PHI/TB player props, and provide my Eagles/Buccaneers picks.

Jump to: Closing Odds | Player Props | Picks

Eagles vs Buccaneers Closing Odds

The opening NFL Week 4 odds listed Philadelphia as a field-goal favorite on the road, and the line has grown to 3.5 across the board. On the moneyline, the Eagles opened at -162 and are now -180 or shorter. The Buccaneers, who opened at just +136, are now as long as +166. The game total has dropped by as many as three points, from 46.5 to 43.5 (at bet365), though most books still list it at 44.0.

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The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and an impressive 6-1 ATS in their last seven on the road. However, the Buccaneers have covered in their last four straight games as underdogs. The under has hit in four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the Eagles and Bucs.

PHI vs TB Odds Movement

The main impetus for the odds movement – both towards the Eagles and the under – is injuries on the Tampa Bay side, particularly on offense. Battling a biceps injury, Mayfield is officially listed as questionable, though every indication is that he’s going to start on Sunday.

Tampa will also be missing WR1 Mike Evans (hamstring), while WR2 Chris Godwin (ankle) is listed as questionable. Like Mayfield, Godwin is expected to be in the starting lineup, though at something less than 100%.

The Bucs’ offense could get a boost from the return of OT Tristan Wirfs (knee), who’s likely to make his season debut against Philadelphia.

PHI Eagles vs TB Buccaneers Player Props

NFL player props as of 10:15 am ET, September 28, at BetMGM.

Jalen Hurts’ passing yardage line appears low at 199.5, but it reflects his career struggles against this defense and the Eagles’ run-heavy approach. The under is heavily juiced, suggesting oddsmakers expect the Bucs’ pressure to limit his production. Baker Mayfield’s line of 220.5 yards is very attainable against a vulnerable Eagles secondary. He has averaged 205 yards per game this season but will be working with a depleted receiving corps this Sunday.

Saquon Barkley’s rushing prop of 76.5 yards (which is as high as 80.5 at ESPN Bet) will be a tough over to hit against Tampa Bay’s elite run defense. A.J. Brown’s receiving line of 64.5 yards is modest for a player of his caliber, making the over an attractive play, especially with the Eagles likely needing to pass to move the ball.

For the Buccaneers, rookie running back Bucky Irving’s rushing line of 60.5 is achievable, while Emeka Egbuka’s receiving prop of 59.5 is a strong candidate for an over given his recent production, the favorable matchup, and his potential for increased targets with Evans out and Godwin less than 100%.

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks & Prediction

• ATS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (-105) at ESPN Bet
• Over/Under: Under 44.5 (-118) at FanDuel
• Player Prop: Saquon Barkley under 80.5 rush yards (-111) at ESPN Bet

While Philadelphia is undefeated and rightfully favored, their historical struggles against this specific opponent and coaching scheme cannot be ignored. Jalen Hurts is 1-4 in his career against the Buccaneers, and Todd Bowles’ defense has consistently found ways to pressure him into mistakes. Hurts has taken 14 sacks and committed six turnovers in five career games against Tampa Bay.

The Eagles’ offense, which relies on establishing the run, will face its toughest test of the season against a front seven that has been impenetrable on the ground. Tampa is surrendering a paltry 84 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. They haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 11 straight games. This forces the game onto Hurts’ shoulders against a defense designed to make him uncomfortable.

Conversely, Baker Mayfield is playing with supreme confidence and has yet to turn the ball over this season. He faces an Eagles secondary that is the clear weakness of the team, creating a significant mismatch for Tampa Bay’s receivers. The Buccaneers have also demonstrated incredible late-game poise, winning all three of their games with scores in the final minute.

Betting trends heavily favor the home underdog here. The Buccaneers are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, and 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Eagles. In a game that projects to be a one-score affair, getting more than a field goal with the home team is the strongest play.