Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills – Odds, Lines, Spread, and Picks NFL Week 5

• The Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday, October 9
• Kenny Pickett will make his first career start for Pittsburgh
• See the Steelers vs Bills picks and odds ahead of their Week 5 clash, and our pick below

Welcome to the NFL, Kenny Pickett.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ first-round pick will get his first career start against the Buffalo Bills, a team currently favored in the 2023 Super Bowl odds, and massive 14-point favorites in Week 5.

Buffalo found their sea legs after getting upset in Miami, while Pittsburgh finally ended the Mitch Trubisky opening act in favor of their (hopeful) next franchise pivot.

It all gets underway from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park at 1pm ET, in a game you can see live on CBS.

Steelers vs Bills Odds

Odds as of October 8th from Barstool Sporstbook. 

Checking the NFL Betting Trends,  it appears the books found the right line, as they Pittsburgh is pulling 53% of the bets against the spread. There’s no confusion as to who is expected to win, though, with the Bills taking 89% of the bets on the moneyline.

Fall weather descends on Buffalo, where it’s expected to be 55 degrees at kickoff, with sunny skies and scattered clouds.

Pittsburgh Betting Outlook

Barring injury, the Steelers are likely to see what they have in the 20th overall pick the rest of the way.

In their 24-20 loss to the Jets, Pickett showed both good and bad after stepping in at halftime for a largely ineffective Trubisky.

Kenny Pickett punches in his first career TD 🙌

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/zun2r2w57x

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 2, 2022

The good news: Pickett didn’t look out of place, and ran for a pair of touchdowns to put the Steelers in position to win the game. The bad news: Pickett threw three interceptions, including a crucial sideline toss that led to New York’s eventual game-winning drive.

There really isn’t anywhere to go but up for the Steelers, who enter Week 5 with the 30th-ranked offense, including 28th in passing, and are putting up a paltry 18.5 points.

Kenny Pickett to George Pickens 🎯

That sounds nice to say, doesn’t it? pic.twitter.com/zJHNYmhnjR

— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) October 2, 2022

Perhaps he can also spark a talented but underperforming wide receiver group. Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Chase Claypool should be a problem. Instead, they’ve yet to haul in a single TD grab.

The bigger problem might be a compromised defense. Already without TJ Watt, their entire secondary is dinged up, with Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee), Terrell Edmunds (concussion), Levi Wallace (ankle) and Cam Sutton (groin/hamstring) all finding their way on the injury report.

Inside stalwart Cam Heyward is also dealing with ankle and elbow injuries, but is expected to play.

Buffalo Betting Outlook

Everyone knows the Bills are nearly unstoppable when they’re running on all cylinders. Last week, they showed they can win in the muck too.

Under a consistent rainfall and trailing by 17 at half, Buffalo gutted out a come-from-behind 20-17 win, ending a 7-game slide in games decided by seven or fewer points.

Gotta give some love to my Boy Blue because it was the Josh Allen Show in Baltimore. Didnt matter that it was a monsoon, he was able to hang in the pocket and create some magic today #billsmafia pic.twitter.com/VCBRgx64k9

— Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) October 3, 2022

Josh Allen, one of the favorites in the 2023 NFL MVP odds, was the usual catalyst, ripping off a 33-yard TD run as part of 70-yard rush day, while also throwing for 213 yards and a score.

Buffalo will also lean on the NFL’s top-rated defense Sunday, one that ranks first in passing yards allowed, tied for first with seven interceptions, and the AFC leader in sacks with 13.

Jordan Poyer picks off Lamar on 4th down in the endzonepic.twitter.com/q4atW7mW5O

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) October 2, 2022

They do have some notable names out in this one. Jordan Poyer, who had two monster interceptions in the win against Baltimore, is out with a rib injury. Defensive tackles Ed Oliver (ankle), Jordan Phillips (hamstring) and linebacker Tremain Edmunds (hamstring) are all listed as questionable.

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Steelers vs Bills Pick

With all due respect to Ben Roethlisberger, there’s just not a great track record of rookie-QB success in the ‘Burgh. The Steelers are just 5-20-1 when they trot out a first-time starter.

Buffalo’s defense hasn’t had a pivot cross 200 yards passing since Week 1, and they are 15-2 against QB’swith 16 or fewer starts, holding them to 11 TD passes to 22 interceptions, while being sacked 44 times.

VON MILLER SACK. FOOTBALL IS BACK.

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/YNklL5FWWp

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 9, 2022

A dinged-up Steelers’ defense will find it hard to keep up against a Bills’ offense that ranks second in passing and fifth in scoring. They’re also trying to win for the first time in eight games without Watt in the lineup.

Buffalo will also be at home, on a track that won’t be affected by weather, against a team that’s actually not very good. It’s a massive spread, but you’re going to see the difference between a contender and a rebuilder in real time, and it won’t be pretty.

The Pick:  

• Bills -14 (-112); 1 unit to win 0.89 units
• Week 4 record: 1-1; Overall: 3-5 ATS, 1-0 O/U, -4.76 units